To stay on top of trend towards beer's rapidly growing high end, you won't want to miss the 2014 Beer INSIGHTS Spring Conference at the Ritz Carlton in Chicago. The program features an interview with the industry's current growth leaders: Crown prexy Bill Hackett and Boston Beer founder Jim Koch, moderated by BMI prexy Benj Steinman. The hottest craft brewer of recent yrs, Lagunitas founder Tony McGee will also join us for a candid conversation. Consultant Mike Mazzoni will be sure to shake things up in his provocative industry analysis. We'll have a panel with a handful of fast-rising craft brewers: Allagash founder Rob Tod, Ninkasi ceo Nikos Ridge, Odell ceo Wynne Odell and Devils Backbone founder Steve Crandall. That will be moderated by consultant Bump Williams. Also on our program: new Heineken USA chief mktg officer Nuno Telles and MillerCoors innovation veep David Kroll on a panel about innovation. We'll include a panel with two of the industry's top economists, Lester Jones from Beer Inst and Bart Watson from Brewers Assn. They'll dig into some of the key industry macro trends and forces driving change. Per usual, BMI's Benj Steinman will present an overview,with plenty of numbers and insights. For more info, click here. To register, click here.  

Craft closer to 50 share of $$ than 40 in latest holiday season in Portland supers, according to IRI data (we just wrote over 40 in last Express). Craft at 48.5 in Portland foodstores in last 4 weeks of yr and at 43 for yr. And now at 45.8 share thru 1st qtr. That's up almost 4 share. (Includes cider at about 5 share.) AB under 17 share of $$ in Portland supers. Might just give some insight into why AB experimenting with half off pricing on Shock Top and Goose Island kegs. Then too, total AB share in state likely lower than 28.6% of shipments we reported, sez one source, because official data probably doesn't fully account for "all the other dozens and dozens of brewers dumping volume into the state."  

Numbers in Steve Hindy's new book paint revealing picture of how important craft has become to some of nation's largest distribs. Fourteen % of Reyes Beverage Group 2013 volume of about 105 mil cases was craft, Jimmy Reyes told Steve in his new book "The Craft Beer Revolution." That's almost 20% of gross profit. "I see that being 25 to 30% [of GP] three years from now," added Jimmy. (Editor's note: RBG total likely includes Blue Moon.) And L. Knife & Son sold about 1.5 mil cases at its Craft Brewers Guild in Mass and 3.3 mil cases of craft in NY, reported Steve. L. Knife and Son's Hunterdon unit in NJ also over 1 mil cases. Then there are L. Knife craft entities in about a dozen other states. Total L. Knife likely over 10 mil cases of craft, INSIGHTS estimates. Those 2 distribs alone 10% or so of total craft volume. Not in book, but Columbia in Oreg and Wash also probably sells over 10 mil cases of craft. Meanwhile, Ben E. Keith in Tex sold 3.8 mil cases of craft in 2013, reports Steve, of its 39 mil cases of total volume. As we noted in our review of Steve's book in Craft Brew News earlier this week, it is ironic that some of best material in Steve's book is about distribs and praises distribs, following his blistering op-ed in NY Times a few weeks back.

Clarification , Continuation and Comment on Craft in Oreg

Craft closer to 50 share of $$ than 40 in latest holiday season in Portland supers, according to IRI data (we just wrote over 40 in last Express). Craft at 48.5 in Portland foodstores in last 4 weeks of yr and at 43 for yr. And now at 45.8 share thru 1st qtr. That's up almost 4 share. (Includes cider at about 5 share.) AB under 17 share of $$ in Portland supers. Might just give some insight into why AB experimenting with half off pricing on Shock Top and Goose Island kegs. Then too, total AB share in state likely lower than 28.6% of shipments we reported, sez one source, because official data probably doesn't fully account for "all the other dozens and dozens of brewers dumping volume into the state."  

Seems like small brewers just can't stop talkin' about wholesalers these days. "Wholesalers are the ones that will make or break you," Dick Yuengling told group of college students earlier this week, reports local paper Pottsville Republican & Herald. Product output and issues with wholesalers affect his company the most, Dick said. While distribs' job is to get product into mkt, once brewer picks distribs, "state laws say that the company must stay with them, even if the wholesaler isn't doing the best job," as paper interpreted Dick's comments. So even while Dick bought/built out Fla brewery to expand biz in 1999, Yuengling remains "under the thumb of the wholesaler," he added, in typically blunt fashion. Yet not all distribs bad at promoting brands, Dick allowed, according to paper. Plus, he credited his Pittsburgh area distrib for actually prompting purchase of Tampa brewery. That distrib wanted more product than Yuengling could provide at time, and told Dick: "If you're made out of what I think you are, you'll do something about it." Dick told students: "That man alone really was the reason I built that brewery in 1999. There's a guy that builds brands, and there's not many out there."

Dick also told students that one Yuengling employee had been after him for yrs to put out a summer wheat. "Our guys made this, unbeknownst to me what a summer wheat beer is supposed to taste like." Yuengling folks sampled others, "but we said, let's make it nice and tasteful. Our guys did a nice job." Finally, Dick not only believes distribs play key role in Yuengling's success, but: "Everybody gives me credit for growing this company, but it's not me, it's the people."  

Heineken USA sales-to-retailers down 1.2% in 1st qtr, slightly worse than 0.6% drop in 2013. But that's before benefits of innovations really kick in, Several launched regionally over last few weeks. US mkt remains tuff, with HUSA "outperforming a declining market, and reflecting an impact from the timing of Easter and severe adverse weather early in the year," said Heineken.

Recall, MC reported -3.4% drop in 1st qtr. So both HUSA and MC trends 2-3 points less good than their trends in Nielsen data; if pattern holds, AB STRs will also come in down 3-4%. HUSA up 1.5% in Nielsen FCDM+ data from Heineken thru 3/29 in a total mkt that is down 0.7%. While Heineken brand down 2.7% in Nielsen, suggesting 4-5% all-channel drop, HUSA saw strong growth with Strongbow (+74%), Tecate Light (+49%) and Dos Equis up 21.9%. Innovation demand is "on FIRE," according to Heineken, noting that Dos-a-Rita, Desperados, Amstel Radler and Heineken 8.5 oz Slim Can "have already exceeded each of their total 2014 projections" in sales-to-wholesalers.

Globally, Heineken volume up 1.3%, revs up 3.4% organically with rev per hectoliter up 2.4%. Heineken's report was "bang in line" with consensus, said Nomura's Ian Shackleton with a "robust" start to yr and "pretty positive" read thru for ABI, given that Heineken Americas overall volume up 2.9% and revs up 8.9% with "good pricing" in Mexico and Brazil and double-digit volume growth in Brazil. Stock down 1% so far today, tho up slightly yr-to-date.  

Get all the craft data and analysis you need in one handy volume: Craft Brew Guide.  This easy-to-use reference guide is both a primer on the dynamic craft brew biz and a deep dive into key numbers and issues.  Craft Brew Guide gives you a 10-yr review of craft shipments and share trends, a 10-yr review of each of the top 30 craft players, on-premise and off-premise craft trends for top brewers and brands, with new in-depth cuts of the data in several major metro mkts. CBG also includes profiles of top craft brewers, key financial data of publicly available craft brewers, exclusive numbers on big brewers’ efforts at selling in craft space, as well as an intriguing essay on the Long Tail (with more exclusive new numbers), and an analysis of craft M&A so far. Available digitally or in a portable 6"x9" volume, Craft Brew Guidegives you the best data and analysis on craftthat you can find. It's published by Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS, the leading source for beer industry info and publisher of Craft Brew News.Click herefor more information and to order this one-of-a-kind book.

Long-time legislative supporter of privatization in Pennsy has yet another plan in progress to expand beer packaging options and expand wine/beer sales, but keep state stores for liquor for now.  His idea: “We can kind of smooth into this.”   For beer, means home Ds, now limited to selling by case or more, would be able to sell 6-pks, 12-pks and growlers.  Other retailers -- hotels and some grocery stores -- would also be able to sell up to three 6-pks, reports The Intelligencer.  Details still in flux, but critics already commenting.  Rep from home D assn fears “predatory retailers” from this “push to get beer … into  grocery stores and convenience stores.”  Another home D supports broader privatization, as does DISCUS, which sez state stores would lose foot traffic if wine available elsewhere, but liquor isn’t. Stay tuned.        

Ongoing battle in Fla legislature over growlers and 3-tier issues tensing up as session coming to a close May 2.  For mos, different bills have floated to allow most popular 64-oz growler size.  At same time, distribs, especially Fla Beer Wholesalers Assn, seek to close what they view as some loopholes that have allowed small brewers to expand retail bizzes.  Second Fla distribs assn, Beer Industry of Fla, less vocal but reportedly willing to allow simple growler bill to pass.  As we reported in sister pub Craft Brew News last week, latest bill in Senate Rules Committee strikes requirement that beer sold on brewer’s premises has to go thru distribs even if it doesn’t leave brewery.  But it still sharply limits what they can sell (draft/growlers only except for very small brewers), requires collaboration/guest beer to go thru distribs and basically closes what distribs view as numerous loopholes that currently allow craft brewers broader retail options than producer tier deserves and gives them advantages over other retailers who are not brewers.  But craft brewers and friends (including some in media and legislature and free-mkt think tank Heartland Institute) don’t like this version any more than previous iterations.  Meanwhile, Fla press has reported every step, including charges of “extortion,” paying distribs “protection money” and of course highlighting distribs’ political activity.  Latest AP story over weekend, titled “Bill could slow Florida craft beer industry growth,” noted state Senate prexy who supports limits on small brewers has also said he helped specific small brewer get up and running.  But that brewer said Senator “has never supported me in one thing….  He’s either evil or he’s dumb.”  Like we said, it’s tensing up.  Current bill in Senate Rules committee likely to get vote this week, then move on to full Senate.  House may or may not take up issue. 

Lagunitas opened its much-anticipated brewery in Chicago this past weekend.  With opening of Douglas Park facility, Lagunitas immediately becomes biggest brewer in Illinois. “It’s just the IPA right now,” owner Tony Magee told Crains Chicago Business about what’s running on new 450-500 per min bottling line.  Next month Lil Sumpin’ Sumpin’ will be produced in Chicago as well.  “There’s going to be a big exhale coming out of Petaluma when Chicago is fully on board,” said Tony.  “They’re brewing at 94% capacity. They’re very tired.”  Taproom should be open “by late May,” in time for Lagunitas’ Beer Circus.  Once additional equipment (currently being built in Germany) arrives this fall and is operational by “mid 2015,” capacity at new brewery will be 1 mil bbls, noted Chicago Tribune.  Lagunitas sales still red hot: volume up 88% yr-to-date thru Mar 23 in IRI’s multichannel data.      

March liquor volume in control states slipped 0.7%, reports NABCA, and dollar sales up just 1.2%.  For 12 mos, volume +1.2%, tho $$ still up 3.9%.  NABCA cited timing of Easter/Passover as potential reasons for softer sales, but 12-mo trend has been in 1% range for mos now.  Then too, Diageo reported that its net sales in North America up just 1.2% for 3 mos thru March 2014, a significant slowdown from +4.6% for last 6 mos of 2013.

At same time, analysts at Goldman Sachs “continue to see prospects for US beer renaissance,” in report by Judy Hong today.  “Potential for beer volume recovery” due in part to improving employment, but also driven by increased innovation and mktg push behind new brands aimed at high end and flavor segments.  That’s where wine and especially spirits have made hay in recent years while brewers “lagged,” according to Judy.  But brewers have increased new product offerings by 276% since 2008, she pointed out, compared to 15% for wine and 57% for spirits.  Combo of “closing the innovation gap,” plus “greater focus on social media” and higher media spend for new products from AB and MC gives Judy reason to believe brewers are “starting to more successfully compete” vs wine and spirits and she expects beer’s share loss to those bevs to “narrow and flatten out in the coming years.”