Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Tuff to get close to even when top 2 brands (56% of volume) down mid-single digits. MillerCoors shipments down 3% and depletions dropped 3.4% in 1st qtr with premium light sales-to-retailers still down mid-singles, said SABMiller. Ouch. Total MC sales-to-retailers down 2.9% for 12 mos. But 1st qtr negatively affected by weather, Easter timing, tho going against easy comp last yr (-3.3%). Don't forget MC had already sold over 1 mil cases of Fortune by late Mar sales convention, so trend almost 1 point worse ex-Fortune. All the hoopla at convention about Miller Lite retro can placed in perspective by news that Lite's sales-to-retailers still trended down mid-singles for qtr (doing much better in scan data). More concerning: Coors Light down mid-singles too. With continued mid-single digit growth of Coors Banquet, MC's premium regular trends better than its premium light trends, down low singles, even with Gen Draft still down double digits. But subpremiums really taking it on chin; down high single digits for qtr. Some notable bright spots too, especially that "total above premium STRs grew by double digits for the quarter… driven by innovations, including the notable success of the Redd's franchise." Oddly, SABMiller didn't say a word about Fortune or Blue Moon. Fortune not setting world on fire so far in scan data. But "within Tenth & Blake," said SABMiller, "Leinenkugel's growth of double digits was more than offset by declines in smaller brands."  
Towards end of BA's Craft Brewers Conference, McDermott Will & Emery atty Marc Sorini slammed "premise" of beer franchise laws as "increasingly laughable." That last broadside from BA's longtime lead atty was just latest in string of blistering public attacks by leading craft figures on beer distributor franchise laws in 2 week period. Collectively, these comments demonstrated a marked shift in tone and augured a potentially more uncomfortable and antagonistic era in craft/distrib relations. Shift borne of longterm "frustration" with lack of progress in negotiations, said multiple craft sources.

First came Mar 30 NY Times op-ed called "Free Craft Beer," ostensibly penned by Brooklyn founder Steve Hindy, but "fully supported by BA" as chairman (and Deschutes founder) Gary Fish said at CBC. The heavy handed, high profile op-ed referred to "the so called 3-tier system" and "archaic distribution laws" that are "bad for craft brewers, consumers and the economy." At conference, BA director Paul Gatza took up same theme: "Unfair beer franchise laws" topped his list of concerns for the industry. Such sentiments echoed several times throughout general session. While BA supports 3-tier system for big suppliers, system "needs to evolve," said Gary. Franchise laws "are not the 3-tier system," Paul argued, but instead a "construct," passed to protect distribs vs largest brewers. "Carve outs for unfair beer franchise laws" needed in many states and industry members that "obstruct" such carve outs may see "more dramatic changes" than if they choose to "negotiate" with state brewers guilds and other advocates, warned Paul.

Another warning shot of sorts issued by Jester King's Ron Extract. He asked craft brewers not to sign on with distribs that don't support legislative changes that craft brewers want (improbably enuf echoing AB and its desire for legislative "alignment" from anchor distribs). BA gave Jester King its FX Matt Defense of Industry Award, for its role in changing of "unjust and antiquated laws that were on the books in Texas," overturned by 2011 court ruling as Ron noted. While court ruling and subsequent legislative changes in Texas supported by some state wholesalers, others continue to lobby against small brewers. Further, "many" small brewers "continue to sign on with" those distribs that lobby against small brewer interests. So "please call them out, hold them accountable for the decisions they make.... Please consider where your distributors stand on these issues" and "what associations they belong to" when making these choices. Interestingly, only distrib state assn exec who ever got same BA award was Tex assn's Mike McKinney way back in 2002 (he passed away 2 yrs ago). And he headed distrib assn that fought changes.

Many distribs stunned, angry and even sad following these repeated attacks. One distrib told us that Brewers Assn "should change the CBC to the ADC… the Anti-Distributor Conference. Had this been their approach during the NY carve out, not too sure I would have supported it." Several distribs said craft brewers "ungrateful" and unappreciative of their customers, who had helped to build the segment. Some distribs also felt they were all tarred with same brush when problems which exist involve a small minority of distribs and those "unwaivable" franchise rights in some, far from all states. While some distrib sources initially had their backs up, INSIGHTS also talked to both distribs and craft brewers that hoped cooler heads would prevail and who didn't want to further inflame tensions. NBWA's initial response to Steve's op-ed relatively mild and it's been officially silent since then. Meanwhile, some craft sources said craft brewers had tried to work out a joint solution with NBWA for over a decade, but they believed those negotiations went backwards in last yr. However, any franchise reform that occurs will clearly happen at the state level, not with NBWA. Even tho some of anti-franchise law rhetoric a crowd pleaser at CBC, garnering much applause, several craft brewers told us they didn't agree with what BA was doing at all. So lotsa crosscurrents and varied viewpoints here amidst BA's new tone, which has certainly shaken things up in last couple of weeks.  
Craft Brewers Conference in Denver last week set all kinds of records with over 9,000 attendees, including about 15% international. That surged more than 40+% over last year and more than double 2 yrs ago. Movement spreading like wildfire and going global too. Tho craft less than 8 share of all volume, craft already easily number 1 on-premise (32 share of $$ in Guest Sciences data. That doesn't really capture whole tasting room/ taproom/brewpub or even craft-centric bar scene.) Craft is also #1 in off-premise $$ sales in the Pac NW, far bigger than AB or MC, almost as big as they are combined. What's more, craft's still up where it's most developed. Soon there will be 3000 brewers in US and 2000 more in planning (BA numbers at 2866 at end of Mar and 1898 in planning). And craft growth still seemingly accelerating at least in scan data; $$ sales up 24% and volume up 20.6% yr-to-date thru Mar 23 in IRI multichannel + convenience. Craft growth led by IPAs, #1 craft segment, more than 1 in 5 craft beers. Collectively, IPAs up more than 50% in $$. Yet with all that's going right, BA, instead of merely celebrating its resounding success, took surprisingly aggressive stance concerning need to reform distributor's state franchise laws. Stinging rhetoric, at least to some extent, overshadowed great growth and many success stories.    
In an interesting twist in the ad debate, 3 British beer groups - British Beer and Pub Assn, Campaign for Real Ale and Society of Independent Brewers - failed to get UK Advertising Standards Authority to ban an ad linking beer consumption to cancer. The ASA usually deals with complaints from health groups or others about industry ads. The ad shows a man pouring a beer and preparing dinner. A tumor appears at the bottom of the glass, then grows. As the ad ends, the man is about to swallow the tumor. The voice over points out that the World Health Organization classifies alcohol as a Group 1 carcinogen that "like tobacco and asbestos," can cause cancer. Also "the more you drink and the more often you drink, the more you increase" cancer risk. The ad directs consumers to a website for more information, which includes the statement that "you don't need to be a heavy drinker" to increase cancer risk and that regular consumption of a pint of beer per day or large glass of wine "can increase the risk of a range of cancers." The brewers groups argued that the ad was "misleading and irresponsible" and "scaremongering," according to a report in The Spirits Business. But the ASA ruled that "there was a general consensus within the scientific and medical communities that the consumption of alcohol could increase the risk of developing particular cancers." Also: "We did not consider that the ad over-emphasized the risk of developing alcohol related cancers, or suggested that viewers should significantly reduce their intake or abstain from the consumption of alcohol completely…. Therefore, we concluded that the ad was not misleading or irresponsible." You can view the ad at www.reducemyrisk.tv.  
The International Chamber of Commerce, working with ICAP and others, presented a Framework for Responsible Marketing Communications of Alcohol at a meeting with national self-regulatory organizations in Amsterdam last month. ICC adapted its general provisions on marketing communications best practices to "offer more specific guidance on issues such as health and safety, social responsibility and truthfulness in the context of alcohol marketing communications" and strengthen local codes, as well as regulatory effectiveness. ICAP's Brett Bivans said the framework aims to "bolster existing self-regulatory efforts to help industry meet the global commitments of the major alcohol beverage companies." Those familiar with the US industry codes will find many familiar points in the ICC framework, including:
  • All communications should be directed to legal age drinkers and made "in a responsible and appropriate manner."
  • Marketing should not "incite or condone illegal behavior, excessive consumption or undermine healthy lifestyles."
  • Marketing should not use "offensive, derogatory or demeaning" portrayals.
  • Communications should not "mislead consumers or create confusion" about the "nature or strength" of alcohol beverages.
  • Abstinence and moderation should not be portrayed negatively. Alcohol should not be portrayed as "removing social or sexual inhibitions or achieving sexual success."
  • Nor should alcohol be associated with "violent, aggressive or hazardous" behavior or as a "rite of passage." Communications "should avoid" featuring settings, language and/or personalities "primarily appealing" to youth.
The full framework can be found at www.iccwbo.org.  
Diageo CEO Ivan Menezes took the opportunity of his address to the annual IMPACT Marketing Seminar in March to call for increased industry engagement in alcohol policy and actions to reduce alcohol misuse. To set up his "call to action," Menezes quoted some harsh remarks from WHO's General Director Margaret Chan last year (see June 2013 AII), as she joined many others in public health who reject any role for the industry in alcohol policy debates. "It's not just Big Tobacco anymore. Public health must also contend with Big Food, Big Soda and Big Alcohol. All of these industries fear regulation and protect themselves by using the same tactics. When industry is involved in policy-making, rest assured that the most effective control measures will be downplayed or left out entirely. This too, is well-documented and dangerous," Chan wrote. Menezes rejected this "troubling perspective" and insisted "the industry must have a seat at the table" to bring its "valuable expertise and a legitimate point of view." His advice: "Do more… engage positively and constructively in the debate," even with those who reject the industry's role in prevention and: "Step up with more meaningful solutions."

Menezes pointed to the global commitments made by producers back in October 2012 at the ICAP conference to reduce alcohol misuse across the world. Specifically, the commitments include: reducing underage drinking and drinking and driving, strengthening/ expanding marketing codes, providing consumer information and responsible product innovation and enlisting more retailer support. The first "progress report" on these efforts, via evaluation by KPMG, will appear later this year, Menezes said. He cited some of Diageo's specific programs, including getting commitments from 1 mil consumers to "never drink and drive" and its support for screening and brief interventions. But he also highlighted good work being done by competitors Pernod Ricard, AB InBev, Heineken, Bacardi, SABMiller and Brown Forman. And Menezes reported that in addition to significant reductions in underage drinking/teen fatalities from drunk driving in the US, progress in the UK, Japan and elsewhere. Going forward, Menezes called for:
  • "More listening and engagement" by the industry with governments, non-governmental organizations and even critics.
  • "More partnerships" with these same groups, the medical community, educators, parents, law enforcement and other industry members across tiers.
  • "More and better" communications.
  • "More scale and impact from our programs."
ICAP and GAP-G to Unite Efforts In another step to "support and accelerate implementation of the "Beer, Wine and Spirits Producer's Commitments to Reduce Harmful Drinking" made back in 2012, two key producer-funded organizations will merge to create a new entity later this year. The International Center for Alcohol Policy (ICAP), which has focused on research and specific policy issues and the Global Alcohol Producers Group (GAP-G), which has focused more on assuring the industry has a seat at the table when policy is discussed, will pool their "significant combined experience from global efforts and continued research to inform scientific and policy conversations with effective approaches to reduce harmful drinking." ICAP's Marcus Grant, who is retiring at the end of this year, points out that the producers "know a lot" about why people drink: "We need to find ways to balance that understanding with public health concerns about harmful drinking." And in yet another response to WHO's Chan, Grant insisted, as he has for years: "there is room at the table for everybody." Mark Leverton, GAP-G's general director said that putting the two groups together will enable the new entity "to more efficiently translate and disseminate the best of research and practice on responsible drinking into advancements in programs and policy." A new name and leader will be announced later this year.  
It's been 30 years since President Reagan signed the National Minimum Drinking Age Act and 27 years since all 50 states eventually complied by increasing drinking age to 21 to avoid losing federal highway funds. Whether the law is the best approach to curb underage drinking has been challenged since then, but as we noted just last month, "the drinking age debate has not been a hot one" in recent years. Well, suddenly the 21 age limit debate has resurfaced, with one longtime researcher declaring "Case Closed" on the issue, while well-known authors are arguing in major media outlets that the minimum age should be lowered because it's both ineffective and unfair.

Now is the time to end the argument and focus on enforcement, declared William DeJong of Boston University School of Public Health. "Recent research on the age 21 MLDA has reinforced the position that the current law has served the nation well," he wrote, following a review of published research over the last 8 yrs, coinciding with when the Choose Responsibly organization began its public drive to lower the drinking age again. He cites stats from various studies demonstrating benefits of the 21 drinking age: NHTSA projections that the law "has saved up to 900 lives annually," that the number of fatal drivers with a positive BAC "decreased 57%" among 16-20 yrs olds; that there has been a decline in ratio of drinking to nondrinking drivers under 21, and also the "misperception" that European countries with lower drinking ages have fewer alcohol problems. "The age 21 saves lives and is unlikely to be overturned. College and universities need to put into effect workable policies, stricter enforcement and other evidence-based prevention efforts that have been demonstrated to reduce underage drinking and alcohol-related problems on campus," concluded DeJong. Those comments may be aimed directly at John M. McCardell, former president of Middlebury College who advocated for lowering age almost 10 years ago and eventually had "more than 100 college and university presidents" sign on to his "Amethyst Initiative." That drive to lower the age and teach responsible drinking "took public health and traffic safety officials by surprise, given the extensive research showing that the age 21 MLDA reduces injuries and saves lives," even though admittedly the law "is imperfectly enforced and widely disobeyed," wrote DeJong. At present, "public interest in the Amethyst Initiative has waned, at least for now," he added, noting "there is little likelihood of any state implementing a lower MLDA in the near future."

While Prof. DeJong declared Case Closed, columnist William Cohan, recently told CNN "The drinking age of 21 is a national joke," as we reported in a recent Update. Recall, he said the 21-age law is violated "every week, if not every day" on "every college campus in the country." Decriminalizing drinking for most students, by lowering age to 19, could result in "a more refined, responsible approach to alcohol… on campus," said Cohan. In Time magazine, feminist/ social commentator, Camile Paglia called the drinking age limit "a gross violation of civil liberties and must be repealed." A 21 drinking age is "absurd and unjust" to young Americans that can vote, enter military, marry, enter legal contracts, etc. The higher limit, she argued, deprived "young people of safe places where they could happily drink cheap beer, socialize, chat and flirt in a free but controlled public environment." MADD "stampeded" Congress into passing a law that despite its "good intentions," is "wrongly intruding into an area of personal choice." With recent changes in marijuana laws, it makes it even more important "to strike down this dictatorial law," she urged.  
The full implications of this Supreme Court decision will of course take time to reveal themselves, attorney Richard Blau points out. But "it is clear that going forward, police have extraordinary leeway to proceed with warrantless traffic stops where just about any rational basis exists to justify exigent action to curtail drunk driving." Indeed, a number of states have already adopted "de facto drunk driving exceptions" to the precedent that anonymous tips need corroboration. The US Solicitor General, 32 states and DC filed a friend of the court brief in this case arguing that "the compelling public interest in stopping drunk driving, balanced against the minimal intrusion of a car stop, makes it reasonable under the 4th Amendment for police officers to stop cars based on anonymous tips without any direct corroboration of the tip," if they confirm the identity and location of the vehicle they were tipped about. But even beyond that, the decision could mean, Richard suggests, "the new de facto standard for warrantless traffic stops is anything causing a police officer to be suspicious, regardless of source or lack of corroboration." (Our emphasis.) That seems to be what Justice Scalia's dissent suggests as well. Richard asks "is this all just paranoia?" He then quotes the passage above about risks to our "freedom of movement."

Richard points to some very rich irony from this case that will be of great interest to those who followed the last big alcohol cases from the Supreme Court: Granholm. "It is ironic that Antonin Scalia is calling Clarence Thomas, the author of the Navarette majority opinion, to task for stretching the facts of a case to fit a legal analysis that pretends to follow past precedents but in fact rewrites them. Ironic, because that is exactly the kind of jurisprudential gymnastics that Justice Thomas accused Justice Scalia and the other justices who signed on to the 5-4 majority decision in the Granholm v. Heald case nine years ago." Richard points to Thomas' dissent in that case which "lambasted the majority -- including Justice Scalia - for misreading history, ignoring jurisprudence, and stretching the evidence before the Court to produce a desired result that, at best, pretended to be an adherence to past precedent." Justice Thomas wrote then that the majority apparently agreed with the FTC and those who overturned state liquor regulations to accommodate direct shipping that it "would enhance consumer welfare." But he reminded that "the 21st Amendment and the Webb-Kenyon Act took those policy choices away from judges and returned them to the States…. The Court does this Nation no service by ignoring the textual commands of the Constitution and Acts of Congress. The 21st Amendment and the Webb-Kenyon Act displaced the negative Commerce Clause as applied" to state regulation of liquors and required upholding of Michigan's and New York's direct-shipment laws, Thomas wrote.  
Back in January, attorney Richard Blau flagged an interesting upcoming Supreme Court argument with potentially significant implications for DUI/DWI enforcement and adjudication. The Justices reviewed lower court rulings that upheld a stop and search of one driver based on a 911 call from another driver identifying the vehicle as one that had just run her off the road. Despite no other corroboration of drunk driving, police stopped the vehicle, smelled marijuana and arrested the driver and his companion. They ultimately pled guilty to transporting marijuana and served jail time. They were not cited for DUI/DWI. But they did argue that the stop violated their 4th Amendment protections against illegal search and seizure. Lower courts ruled that the call was enough to create "reasonable suspicion" for the stop. In yet another 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court agreed. Interestingly, in this case the 5 were Thomas, Kennedy, Roberts, Breyer and Alito. Justice Scalia joined with Kagan, Sotomayor and Ginsburg on the losing side.

While an anonymous call itself "seldom demonstrates sufficient reliability," the Supreme Court previously held, it "may do so under appropriate circumstances." Given the "totality of the circumstances here," the call "bore adequate indicia of reliability for the officer to credit the caller's account," according to the majority. Therefore, he had reasonable suspicion "that the driver was intoxicated" (even tho the caller said nothing about alcohol). And that justified the stop. Weighing in favor that the call represented reasonable suspicion: 1) the claim that a specific vehicle had run the caller off the road (she had the license plate and description) "lends significant support to the tip's reliability"; 2) the "timeline of events" - the 911 call and the stop all happened within less than 30 minutes - added to the reliability; 3) the caller's use of 911 system itself, which can track calls and punish false reports, also adds "veracity." But does even a reliable tip create reasonable suspicion of "an ongoing crime such as drunk driving?" Yes, the majority ruled. Not all erratic driving behaviors "imply intoxication," they admit, but "certain driving behaviors" are "sound indicia of drunk driving." In this case, the report of being run off the road "bears too great a resemblance to paradigmatic manifestations of drunk driving to be dismissed as an isolated example of recklessness," the majority found. Such behavior "suggests lane-positioning problems, decreased vigilance, impaired judgment, or some combination of those recognized drunk driving cues." And that's enough for reasonable suspicion. The majority further dismissed the notion that a lack of any other suspicious conduct by the driver would dispel the reasonable suspicion of drunk driving.

Justice Scalia begins his blistering dissent by warning that although the majority "purports to adhere" to previous Supreme Court cases in its "departure from our normal 4th Amendment requirement that anonymous tips must be corroborated," we should "be not deceived." Scalia points out the officers "knew nothing" about the tipster, and anonymity is especially suspicious. His response to other reasoning by the majority includes phrases such as "So What?" and "proves absolutely nothing in the present case." The tipster did not even accuse the driver of being drunk, he adds, and argues the alleged incident could have happened for other reasons (including talking on a cell phone, an "intense sports argument" or "some personal animus, or hostility to" the tipster's "Make Love, Not War bumper sticker"). "I fail to see how reasonable suspicion of a discrete instance of irregular or hazardous driving generates a reasonable suspicion of ongoing intoxicated driving." (Scalia's emphasis.) "It gets worse," Scalia notes. The officer followed the car for 5 minutes and during that time, the Plaintiff's "driving was irreproachable." So the tip "not only went uncorroborated; it was affirmatively undermined." Scalia sums up by noting the majority "serves up a freedom-destroying cocktail consisting of two parts patent falsity." The first: anonymous tips are reliable as long as they correctly identify a car and its location. Second: "a single instance of careless or reckless driving necessarily supports a reasonable suspicion of drunken driving." With this opinion, "all of us on the road, and not just drug dealers, are at risk of having our freedom of movement curtailed on suspicion of drunkenness, based upon a phone tip, true or false of a single instance of careless driving." Searches without probable cause aren't allowed to "prevent and detect murder," Scalia notes: "We should not do so for drunken driving either." Ref 1  
Still lotsa folks talking about craft leaders' tuff comments on state franchise laws at CBC and elsewhere. Here are guest columnist Nestor's thoughts on the issue:

One thing the fractionated and contentious beer industry does not need is further fractionalization and contention. But Brooklyn Beer prexy Steve Hindy's recent op-ed in the New York Times certainly looked like the announcement of small brewer versus wholesaler hostilities. Speaking presumably on behalf of the Brewers Association (on whose Board he serves and whose PR firm, one is told, contributed to the op-ed), Steve told the world that small brewers shouldn't be held captive by uncaring/lousy/any wholesalers. Suppliers should be free to move as and when they saw fit (the piece mentions, but does not explicitly endorse fair market value compensation).

NBWA head Craig Purser quickly responded in the same paper. Craft brewers were up 18% because of the heroic efforts of wholesalers. What was Mr. Hindy's problem? Mr. Purser's language was gentle; his tone was that of puzzlement. But he basically said "pound sand."

Various BA eminents continued the assault at CBC (the craft industry's annual confab). BA chairman Gary Fish said the association "fully supported" the op-ed. Director Paul Gatza made it clear that the BA believed in franchise laws…for other people, namely large brewers. He then threatened "more dramatic changes" should wholesalers not fall into line.

Seems to me that we should discuss three questions. First, who is right or at least righter? Second, what is likely to happen if the wholesalers do not capitulate? Third, what should happen?

"Right," of course, tends to be a subjective term dependent on whose bovines are being mutilated. Still, one has to observe that beer distributorships are one of only two US businesses that enjoy such franchise laws. (The other, of course, is automobile dealerships, who are not at all supportive of new manufacturer Tesla's radical proposal that it sell cars directly to consumers.)

So, who is right? Well, Hindy's article had some inaccuracies, and the BA may have been foolish to publicly announce its game plan, but the BA's major points make sense. Brewers, other than ABI in many states and micro outfits that have chosen to compete in very small geographies, need wholesalers - though, arguably, no more than manufacturers in many other industries do. But where is the logic that translates that need into contracts that stretch into perpetuity? True, wholesalers can be a critical determinant in a craft's success. But, again, why should this translate into perpetual brand rights?

Second, what will happen? Well, there is every chance that the crafts will win this battle over time. As the number of local wholesalers continues to shrink and the number of local crafts continues to explode, it will be small brewers who will increasingly have the ears of state legislators. But this could take quite some time; in many states, many years. Wholesalers may see no reason to give in quickly unless the crafts roll out a Doomsday Machine of some sort. (The BA's "more drastic changes" - suppliers up to 20% of a wholesaler's volume? No compensation? A blacklist? A ban on CBC attendance?)

If, by the way, small brewers are no longer bound by franchise laws, wholesalers can replace such franchise protection with, say, three-year or longer contracts with no (or with very expensive) early escape provisions as well as end-of-term exit fees. Middle-tier players in many other industries have successfully employed such agreements for many years.

Finally, what should happen? I'll vote for some form of the BA's "proposal," perhaps with a 3% (by volume) or 5% (by value) supplier ceiling. And with equitable compensation for brand-losing wholesalers and perhaps a formula for determining payment (as opposed to the specter of transferring a year of a small craft's margins to its attorneys). Major suppliers get largely excluded. But they should be allowed to move small brands, including newly acquired ones.

And let's get this done soon. Then maybe we can all get back to selling beer. Which, as you may have read, hasn't been going that well in recent years. The spirits folks, reading about the past weeks' contretemps, must be laughing their shot glasses off.  

 

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