Some interesting new data points came our way in last day or 2.  We share some highlights here.  Angry Orchard Nears 2/3 of Cider Last 3 Mos in Nielsen, Still Outpacing Segment  Boston Beer’s Angry Orchard is steamrolling cider segment.  It’s up to 65 share of cider and still growing 220% in last 3 mos of Nielsen all channel data thru Mar 1.  Total cider is nearly doubling, which means A-O still gaining share.  Miller Lite Up 2% Last 4 Weeks But Coors Light Down  Better Miller Lite trends with retro cans continue as Lite up 1.8% for last 4 weeks thru Mar 1 in Nielsen.  Now flat YTD.  But Coors Light down 2.5% in these channels.  And total MC down 2.2% yr-to-date.  That’s slightly better than AB, down 2.4%.

2014 is off to solid shipments start.  Domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments up 400,000 bbls, 3% in Feb, estimates Lester Jones at Beer Inst, following modest Jan gain.  But gotta recall Feb 2013 down 850K bbls, 6%.  That means Feb this yr still well below Feb 2012.  Then too, Mar no better than Feb last yr: down 860K bbls, 5.5%.  Other factors: inventory builds for Fortune, Ritas and just in case there’s an AB labor issue.  Depletions/retail trends nowhere near as strong as combo of Jan-Feb taxpaids and Jan imports gain of 550K bbls, 1.9%. 

To stay on top of  trend towards beer’s rapidly growing high end, you won't want to miss the 2014 Beer INSIGHTS Spring Conference at the Ritz Carlton in Chicago, focused on this dynamic and growing sector of the biz. Just added to our program: new Heineken USA chief mktg officer Nuno Teles, joining MillerCoors innovation veep David Kroll on a panel about innovation.  The program will also feature an interview with the industry's current growth leaders: Crown prexy Bill Hackett and Boston Beer founder Jim Koch, moderated by BMI prexy Benj Steinman.  The hottest craft brewer of recent yrs, Lagunitas founder Tony McGee will join us.  Consultant Mike Mazzoni returns and he’s sure to shake things up. And consultant Bump Williams will lead a panel discussion with a handful of fast-rising craft brewers: Allagash founder Rob Todd, Ninkasi ceo Nikos Ridge, Odell ceo Wynne Odell and Devils Backbone founder Steve Crandall. More speakers to come. Per usual, BMI's Benj Steinman will present an overview of the segment, with plenty of numbers and insights. For more info, click here. To register, click here.   

Spirits sales still strong, at least in modest retail database measured by Nielsen (food, drug, mass merch and Walmart).  Sales up 5.2% for 4 wks thru Mar 1, reports Goldman Sachs, with volume +2.6%, price/mix +2.5%.  Whiskeys continue to burn it up: bourbon +10.9%, Canadian and Irish whiskey up 15.7% each and scotch up 7.7%.  But ugly spat has split two of biggest distillers: Diageo and Brown-Forman.  Briefly, B-F got law passed in Tenn last yr defining “Tennessee Whiskey” as aged with new oak bbls only, as its Jack Daniels is.  New bill, prompted by Diageo, would allow used oak bbls to be “rejuvenated” and used; that would reduce costs and ostensibly help out smaller distillers too.  B-F responds that it would harm “integrity” of product.  So there’s dueling press releases, small brewers and politicians on each side of argument and lotsa rhetoric about what’s “authentic,” “premium,” etc.  Spat notable because distillers have generally been much less public about disagreements than brewers in recent years regarding product and policy issues.   (Sources: Wall St Journal, WhiskyCast.)

MillerCoors just “struck a flurry of digital content deals,” as co plans to boost its digital ad spending by 50% this yr, reported Advertising Age.  Deals will enable MC to display brand content and engage consumers on AOL, Weather Company, Complex Media, Comedy Central, Funny or Die and Woven Digital.  MC will use those platforms to advertise mix of different brands including Lite, Coors Light, Blue Moon, Redd’s Apple Ale, Miller Fortune and Smith & Forge Hard Cider, per Ad Age.  MC investment (no $$ figures were shared) “is further proof that alcohol marketers – which were originally slow to embrace digital marketing” because of “age-gating concerns” are now in the mix in a big way, noted mag.  With improvements in age verification tools, digital platforms are “getting better at being able to tell us that we are engaging with 21-plus consumers,” said Jackie Woodward, vp-marketing connections.  

Miller Lite’s white retro can was originally supposed to end by now, but  improved results continue thru early March, noted Chi Tribune feature.  Can extended thru Sep and “bottle may be next,” headlined Trib.  Overall, Lite sales down in “low single-digit range,” while can sales were up 4.7% thru Mar 1, co said, citing Nielsen data.  Lite cans continue to be received well by consumers including key millennials that weren’t familiar with white can from its heyday.  It was launched nationally in 1975 and changed in 1992 and has gone thru silver and blue iterations.  Peak yr for Lite was 1990 at 20 mil bbls.  Lite volume down  over 6 mil bbls since with about 2/3 of drop since 2008.  In 2013, Lite at 13.7 mil bbls, 31-32% below peak.  Yet some distribs are reporting “remarkable growth for a veteran brand,” noted Trib. 

Lite can sales up 6% thru Mar 12 at Faust Dist in Tex, said chmn/ceo Don Faust Jr (chairman of MC distrib council).  That’s quite a turnaround after falling 9% late last yr at Faust.  “For something to completely flip like that – that’s what’s so unusual.  It’s really hard to change momentum in short order,” said Don.  “I’m begging and pleading for bottles,” he added. In Philly, Lite cans jumped 18% at Muller Inc, said prexy/coo Ed O’Donnell.  He also noted sales of 30-pk 12-oz Lite cans (Muller’s top-selling pkg) up 27% YTD.  But while Lite can trends much improved, total MC premium light biz got worse, one sizable distrib told INSIGHTS.

With cans on such a roll, “we’re looking very hard at the bottles,” said Ryan Reis, sr dir of Miller family.   While logistics at brewery have to be worked out for a bottle change, “It seems like a really good idea to us,” added Ryan.  MillerCoors is going to extend the white labeling to 16-oz aluminum bottles soon and just got an added media boost when NASCAR driver Brad Keselowski won Kobalt 400 race on Mar 9 in his white Ford featuring the Lite logo.   

Consumer price index for beer increased 1.6% in Feb compared to Feb 2013, which outpaced gain of 1.1% for All Items, per latest govt stats.  Govt stats rely on mkt basket that’s more based on premium light and leading imports, not factoring in trading up that’s happened in recent yrs. That accounts for differential between prices shown in scan data and these govt stats.  Gain in Feb CPI for beer below 2.1% price increase recorded in Jan.  CPI for spirits edged up 0.9% in Feb while down 0.6% for wine.  Over last 12 mos thru Feb, CPI for beer was up 1.8% vs 1.4% increase for general inflation.  Spirits prices up 1.3% last 12 mos while wine gained just 0.5%.

Total beer volume up 2.4% for 4 weeks thru Mar 8 in Nielsen all outlet + convenience.  That’s best trend in Nielsen in awhile (IRI off-premise data even more robust).  Of course, on premise is a bear and each of AB and MC reportedly down all-channel sales-to-retailers so far in 2014.  Still, recent off premise improvement is welcome.  What’s more, pricing is staying healthy so far in 2014, with avg prices up 69 cents, 3.3% per case to $21.69 last 4 weeks.

Hey, even premium light volume up 1% last 4 weeks and avg prices up 1.6%.  Premium lights still lost 1 share of $$ tho.  What’s gaining?  High end, natch.  All above premium segments collectively grew double digits in volume and near 3 share of $$ to over 36 share of all-channel.   Led by craft and FMBs.  Each gained 1.1 share of $$ last 4 weeks in Nielsen.  Craft volume up 16% and $$ up more than 20% as avg prices for a case of craft beer up $1.31, 3.9% to $34.31 last 4 weeks.  FMBs up 35% but avg prices actually down slightly.  Imports had double digit $$ sales growth (volume up 7.8%) with avg prices up 71 cents, 2.5%.   Imports gained 0.6 share of $$.  Ciders still up 85% and gained 0.4 share of $$. 

Superpremiums now in red, volume down 1.5% last 4 weeks and subpremiums continue to shed volume and share.  All below premiums down 2.2% for 4 weeks, but sharp difference between near premium (+1.4%) and budget (-6.6%).  All below premium dropped 1.3 share of volume and 1.4 share of $$ last 4 weeks thru 3/8. 

Politics, religion and corporate cash collided in Northeast past several days with brewers pulling out of  St. Patrick’s Day parades in NYC and Boston in defense of gay rights.  News that Guinness was dropping its association with today’s parade in NYC made big headlines considering its longtime status as an iconic symbol of Irish beer/culture.  “Guinness has a long history of supporting diversity and being an advocate for equality for all,” co said.  Guinness pulled out on eve of parade after historic Stonewall Inn announced it would cease selling Guinness and threatened to pour it out from its roof this morning in protest.  Guinness said its decision came last minute because it was “hopeful that the policy” would change but that didn’t happen.  Heineken had already dropped support for parade on Fri and Boston Beer got lots of press and mostly praise after it pulled its sponsorship of Boston’s parade late last wk.  The NYC parade has been run for 150 yrs by Ancient Order of Hibernians, a private Catholic org which has long contended that gay people can “march in the procession but could not carry signs or identify their sexuality.”  Ford Motor co remained lone corp sponsor for parade after Guinness decision. 

Beer distribs have always been active in state politics, contributing heavily to campaigns, lobbying forcefully for franchise protection and other laws and generally playing the game, as you’d expect from any biz, especially those in a regulated industry.  Lots of the work is done behind the scenes, without much publicity. But sometimes the media takes note.  As we reported last week, a media group in OH undressed vigorous efforts by beer distribs in state to get passage of the anti-branch bill last yr (see Mar 7 Express). Over the weekend, the Cincinnati Enquirer ran the same story and the Cleveland Plain Dealer (part of same media group that did the investigation) ran a follow-up editorial: “Lobbyists remain the toast of Ohio’s Statehouse.”  It noted how beer distribs “flooded the Statehouse with campaign contributions,” but also that passage of bill “not necessarily a surprise” as OH has tradition of supporting 3-tier.  But real “story,” paper opined, is about lobbying process and explains why OH bizzes “believe that to get their feet in the door of an Ohio’s legislator’s office, they must in effect pay a cover charge in the form of campaign donations.”  Credited frankness of distrib assn spokesman who said donations “part of the process,” but concluded: “Yes they are.  But that doesn’t make them seemly.”

Meanwhile, nasty battle brewing in Fla over growlers.  Craft brewers want to open mkt to standard 64-oz growler, now barred by law.  Distribs seem willing to clear the pkg, but at least some also want to add regs to bar guest taps, create standards for labeling, cleaning etc and limit on-site sales, rules that small brewers view as limiting their options/oppys.  Lotsa maneuvering has resulted.  Fla Senate President “acknowledged he will support whatever AB InBev distributor Lewis Bear tells him to support,” AP reported yesterday.  “I’m with the beer distributors in my district,” he said.  “That’s a very important issue because one of my very best friends is an AB distributor and he never talks to me about his business.  It’s always about what are we going to do for disabled children, what are we going to do about the arts, what are we going to do for economic development.  But this time he’s talking about growlers.”  AP of course, took oppy to point out that AB distribs have supported legislators to tune of “about $1 mil…over the years.”  Also quoted small brewer who said “that’s so sad.  Here we have the Senate president who’s supposed to represent all of us in Florida and instead he’s talking about just supporting his buddy who happens to be a large donor.”  And a lobbyist for the small brewers’ guild complained that the additional rules and whole process is “extremely insulting and it’s extraordinarily punitive….  For no reason, in order for craft brewers to get something positive, they have to give up something.  It’s ludicrous.”  It’s also often part of the process.