Beer Marketer's Insights
A deep-dive into Arizona supermarkets indicated craft has about 9.3 share of beer $$ in the state, up 1.1. Overall, beer sales were up 2.2% in Ariz in 2013, outperformed by both spirits (+2.9%) and wine (+5.5%). Tho top beer suppliers both declined in state supers (AB -1.1%, MC -0.6%), Boston gained 24.7% in Ariz on its total portfolio, its craft beer brands +4% to over 17 share of craft. New Belgium comes in as 2d largest craft vendor in state, +10.7% to 13.4 share; Sierra +18.6% to near 12 share. Largest state player, Four Peaks grew 13.7% in Ariz in 2013, now at about 7 share of craft in the state. Top 5 craft brands in Ariz (Sam Adams, NBB, Sierra, Four Peaks and Deschutes) account for about 54.3% of craft sales. Ariz supers sold 563 craft SKUs last yr. Goose Island variety was largest-selling new brand in Ariz supers. Craft IPAs gained 37%, now near 20 share of craft $$, almost double share of variety pks, +36%. Craft cans posted big gains in the state, 6-pks of 12 oz cans +140%, 12-pks +129%.
Craft segment gained almost 1 full week of merchandising support for supermarket chains for 2d yr in a row, according to Dan's Power Hr presentation. That wasn't quite as much a 2.5-wk gain for PABs or near 7-wk gain for cider. Indeed, cider has gained "almost 13 weeks of support over the last 2 years." When looking closer at craft's merchandising conditions over the last 5 yrs, Dan noticed that the segment's "weighted weeks of merchandising support has increased" across all 4 measurements (price reductions only, feature only, display only, feature and display) every year. On overall beer pricing, craft and super-premium segments posted largest avg price increases in supers.
In top-35 food markets, craft's average $$ share gain was +7.0 points in last 3 mos of yr since 2009 and segment gained a whopping 10 share of mkt or more of supers OND since 2009 in 6 different mkts: Seattle/Tacoma, Balt/Wash DC, San Diego, Cleveland, Columbus and Grand Rapids. Now there are 4 markets where craft 30 plus share those mos in supers: Portland, OR, Seattle/Tacoma, Cleveland and San Francisco/ Oakland. Ten of top-35 mkts saw craft surpass 10 share in supers since 2009 during OND, leaving only 5 top mkts where craft under 10 share: Los Angeles, South Carolina, Miami/Ft Lauderdale, Tampa/St Petersburg, and West Texas/New Mexico. Craft gained avg of 1.8 share of $$ across its top 35 Food Markets OND (Oct/Nov/Dec) vs 2012, with half of its top 35 markets grabbing over 2 share for the yr. Craft in Columbus, Oh "achieved its highest dollar share increase," in OND 2013 at +3.1 share. Craft in Portland, Oreg reached 39.4 share, +1.2 in supers for OND. For full yr, Portland craft increased by almost 2 share points to 36.6 share of supers. "We're always looking at Portland," Dan said, and craft was about 40 share for the entire month of December, even reaching 41.3 share of $$ in week ending December 23rd.
Beer Wins When It Counts During Key OND Period: $$ Share of Total Alc Up 0.5; Big Craft Gains
"An abundance of positive indicators… really help cast light on the overall health" of craft beer, noted IRI's Dan Wandel during his Power Hour presentation for the Brewers Assn today. Here's one that's especially striking: craft posted fastest $$ sales gain in supermarkets since 2007 off a far larger base. Also had largest share gain in at least 5 years, +1.5 to 13.42, Dan showed. Craft gained over 5 share since 2009 in supers, leading Dan to point out that "it's not inconceivable to see this segment achieve a 15 share by 2015."
In IRI's list of top overall beer suppliers by $$ sales in supers, Sierra Nevada "passed up" NAB to "move into the top 10." In top overall brands, also by $$ sales, Blue Moon found its way back into top 15, at #15. Dan combined Boulevard and Ommegang brands for his list of top 15 BA-defined craft vendors, moving the brands up from #14 to #11 with over $17 mil in sales in 2013, ahead of SweetWater, Full Sail, Ninkasi and Alaskan. When looking at craft volume in supers, Dan noted that "another good key metric is its velocity," which "continues to go up," indeed segment posted "one of its biggest increases yet." Then too, craft beer was largest contributor to bev alc sales growth last yr in multi-outlet, above whiskey and mid/higher priced table wine.
Del Mar Fairgrounds Directors Nix Blue Moon Proposal In Favor of Potential "Local Partnership"
Fine Lines Facing Craft Industry, Consequences of Brand Proliferation Discussed in Atlanta
Big uptick in craft competition leading to myriad consequences in craft segment, panelists noted. For example, some distribs are developing "ADBD" or "Attention Deficit Brand Disorder," Russell quipped. Brewers seeking to keep that from negatively affecting their brands need to invest in salespeople, all panelists agreed. "Boston Beer is 3% of our business and we see them 97% of the time," Russell said. Left Hand has gone from "5 to 25 salespeople in 5 years," Jason said, without adding a new state in 4 yrs: "it's about service now more than anything." That's true for retailers too, as sales folks are "probably not gonna get a sale the first or second time you walk in the door." Wes agreed: Savannah Distributing has added 20 to its salesforce, "going 60 strong now" and growing. Another consequence of craft's breadth that got treatment from panel was rotator bars, which Jason sees as an immediate "opportunity to get in there" that "can be frustrating" once on tap. Wes insisted that "specialty beer...should be an incentive" to carry mainstay brands. Russell concurred, claiming that "to build a brand, all these occasionals, one-offs and special seasonals...should be treated as rewards." Of course, it's not always easy to get an account to think that way, especially as some retailers will "bash" a distrib on social media, where it's "always the distributor's fault," Russell said.
MC On Lookout for Craft Add-Ons If A "Good Fit," Sez Sales Prexy; Smith & Forge A Guy Thing
In same interview, Ed said pending rollout of Smith & Forge cider is clearly an "attempt to make cider more masculine. We were looking for cues," like the name, "that would communicate strong, American tradition, with kind of masculine overtones." Tho Ed claims no more prescience about potential size of cider category in US, he points out that "it's been growing triple digits" here. (Final figure for 2013 cider not yet available, but based on data thru Nov, Lester Jones at Beer Inst estimates cider up from 711K bbls in 2012 to 1.2 mil in 2013.) And Smith & Forge will get "biggest ever media campaign for a cider launch in the US," just-drinks reported. Plenty of room for Crispin to expand distribution and growth, Ed pointed out also. Smith & Forge follows quickly on heels of March intro of superpremium Miller Fortune, which will be "the largest launch of a new product" from MC since inception of the joint venture in 2008, cmo Andy England told NY Times recently. And that followed big bucks behind Redd's Apple Ale last yr in FMB category. Net-net: while attempting to shore up mainstream biz, MC also remains focused on fastest-growing above premium segments: craft, superpremium, FMBs and cider.

