Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Every single region charted by IRI posted double-digit growth trends for craft segment in supermarkets in 2013. Slowest $$ growth shown in West region, which includes mountain states and PacNW, so also easily most-developed region: +10% to nearly $260 mil. Great Lakes region, "where there's just been a lot of craft innovation and new entries and expansion," per Dan, "led all regions" in $$ sales growth in supers. The region gained $35.6 mil in craft sales, up 24% to almost $185 mil. Plains region had lowest craft $$ sales at $51.7 mil, less than half that of next-lowest market, South Central. But region saw largest increase in merchandising support vs 2012, up 2 full weeks. Calif supers provide largest weighted weeks of merchandising support at over 45 weeks, followed by the Great Lakes at over 42 weeks and the Southeast at over 41, but up over a week compared to year ago.

A deep-dive into Arizona supermarkets indicated craft has about 9.3 share of beer $$ in the state, up 1.1. Overall, beer sales were up 2.2% in Ariz in 2013, outperformed by both spirits (+2.9%) and wine (+5.5%). Tho top beer suppliers both declined in state supers (AB -1.1%, MC -0.6%), Boston gained 24.7% in Ariz on its total portfolio, its craft beer brands +4% to over 17 share of craft. New Belgium comes in as 2d largest craft vendor in state, +10.7% to 13.4 share; Sierra +18.6% to near 12 share. Largest state player, Four Peaks grew 13.7% in Ariz in 2013, now at about 7 share of craft in the state. Top 5 craft brands in Ariz (Sam Adams, NBB, Sierra, Four Peaks and Deschutes) account for about 54.3% of craft sales. Ariz supers sold 563 craft SKUs last yr. Goose Island variety was largest-selling new brand in Ariz supers. Craft IPAs gained 37%, now near 20 share of craft $$, almost double share of variety pks, +36%. Craft cans posted big gains in the state, 6-pks of 12 oz cans +140%, 12-pks +129%.  

Craft segment gained almost 1 full week of merchandising support for supermarket chains for 2d yr in a row, according to Dan's Power Hr presentation. That wasn't quite as much a 2.5-wk gain for PABs or near 7-wk gain for cider. Indeed, cider has gained "almost 13 weeks of support over the last 2 years." When looking closer at craft's merchandising conditions over the last 5 yrs, Dan noticed that the segment's "weighted weeks of merchandising support has increased" across all 4 measurements (price reductions only, feature only, display only, feature and display) every year. On overall beer pricing, craft and super-premium segments posted largest avg price increases in supers.  

In top-35 food markets, craft's average $$ share gain was +7.0 points in last 3 mos of yr since 2009 and segment gained a whopping 10 share of mkt or more of supers OND since 2009 in 6 different mkts: Seattle/Tacoma, Balt/Wash DC, San Diego, Cleveland, Columbus and Grand Rapids. Now there are 4 markets where craft 30 plus share those mos in supers: Portland, OR, Seattle/Tacoma, Cleveland and San Francisco/ Oakland. Ten of top-35 mkts saw craft surpass 10 share in supers since 2009 during OND, leaving only 5 top mkts where craft under 10 share: Los Angeles, South Carolina, Miami/Ft Lauderdale, Tampa/St Petersburg, and West Texas/New Mexico. Craft gained avg of 1.8 share of $$ across its top 35 Food Markets OND (Oct/Nov/Dec) vs 2012, with half of its top 35 markets grabbing over 2 share for the yr. Craft in Columbus, Oh "achieved its highest dollar share increase," in OND 2013 at +3.1 share. Craft in Portland, Oreg reached 39.4 share, +1.2 in supers for OND. For full yr, Portland craft increased by almost 2 share points to 36.6 share of supers. "We're always looking at Portland," Dan said, and craft was about 40 share for the entire month of December, even reaching 41.3 share of $$ in week ending December 23rd.  

Spirits (-0.3) and wine (-0.2) categories actually lost share of Total Bev Alc Dollar Sales for 13 weeks thru Dec 29 in IRI Supers, Dan Wandel noted during BA Craft Power Hour. So beer gained 0.5 share to 43.9 total for OND (Oct/Nov/Dec), all from above premium categories: Craft (+0.8), Super Premium (+0.3), Cider (+0.3), and PAB's (+0.1), offsetting 0.6 share drop in Premium biz, 0.3 in Sub-Premium, while Imports remained flat. Prior to 2013 beer had shed 1.4 share of total alc OND for last 2 yrs. Craft segment has been on fire during OND in its largest outlet, supers. It grabbed additional 1.6 share of total beer $$ in supers in 2013, and has gained 4.4 share of beer in last 3 yrs. Nine of the top-15 weeks of craft beer sales in supers nation-wide were in OND (5 of them in December), tho largest sales week was July 4 week, where craft sales for the week ending July 7 exceeded 1 mil cases for the first time in history, noted Dan.  

"An abundance of positive indicators… really help cast light on the overall health" of craft beer, noted IRI's Dan Wandel during his Power Hour presentation for the Brewers Assn today. Here's one that's especially striking: craft posted fastest $$ sales gain in supermarkets since 2007 off a far larger base. Also had largest share gain in at least 5 years, +1.5 to 13.42, Dan showed. Craft gained over 5 share since 2009 in supers, leading Dan to point out that "it's not inconceivable to see this segment achieve a 15 share by 2015."

In IRI's list of top overall beer suppliers by $$ sales in supers, Sierra Nevada "passed up" NAB to "move into the top 10." In top overall brands, also by $$ sales, Blue Moon found its way back into top 15, at #15. Dan combined Boulevard and Ommegang brands for his list of top 15 BA-defined craft vendors, moving the brands up from #14 to #11 with over $17 mil in sales in 2013, ahead of SweetWater, Full Sail, Ninkasi and Alaskan. When looking at craft volume in supers, Dan noted that "another good key metric is its velocity," which "continues to go up," indeed segment posted "one of its biggest increases yet." Then too, craft beer was largest contributor to bev alc sales growth last yr in multi-outlet, above whiskey and mid/higher priced table wine.  

The 2014 Beer INSIGHTS Spring Conference will be held at the Ritz Carlton in Chicago Jun 9-10. The Spring Conference will have greater focus on craft than ever before, once again with an overall theme of the dynamic and growing high-end of US beer biz. We'll have a panel led by consultant Bump Williams featuring top execs from fast-rising craft brewers including: Allagash Brewing founder Rob Tod, Ninkasi Brewing ceo Nikos Ridge, Odell Brewing ceo Wynne Odell, and Steve Crandall, founder of Devils Backbone. They join other key execs on our program including:Crown Prexy Bill Hackett; Boston Beer founder Jim Koch; MillerCoors innovations veep David Kroll; Lagunitas founder Tony Magee; consultant Mike Mazzoni, along with BMI's Benj Steinman. You won't want to miss the key insights and networking opportunity with execs leading growth in the high end so sign up today. Click here for more info, click here to register.  
"It's more than just money," a Del Mar Fairgrounds director said at a recent meeting of the group to decide what to do about a 90K sq ft structure on the grounds, currently an off-site betting house with dwindling popularity. Seeking a more profitable use for the San Diego area space that's seen a drop in daily visitors from nearly 3000 to just over 300 in the past couple decades, the directors received 3 proposals, including one presented by current fairgrounds food and beverage contractor, Premier Food Services for a Blue Moon branded brewery, exhibit and event space, according to the Del Mar Times. But the board of directors voted all 3 down before agreeing to instruct Premier to seek out "another microbrewery proposal after contacting local breweries." The $4 mil project presented by Premier was result of work "with beer companies that have existing relationships with the fairgrounds," the paper wrote, including MillerCoors (Blue Moon) and Heineken (Newcastle) as well as local brewers Ballast Point and Green Flash (each in the midst of their own construction projects). While one director argued that working with Blue Moon could represent "the most lucrative proposal," the Times wrote, another insisted that "we are sitting on a piece of property that has a statutory mandate to encourage and promote local business and industries," according to the Union-Tribune.  
Proposed bill in Md General Assembly would increase "annual production limit for Class 7 micro-breweries from 22,500 barrels to 60,000 barrels." It also may allow "Class 5" brewers that "currently brew less than 60,000 barrels of beer," to obtain a Class 7 license, saving them $1000 per yr on annual brewing licenses, according to fiscal & policy note from Dept of Legislative Services. "There are currently 21 Class 7 micro-brewery licenses issued in the State," that produced a combined 22,377 bbls in 2013. Evolution Craft Brewing Co. (5,336 bbls in 2012 according to Brewers Assn) is largest current Class 7 brewery in Maryland, according to Baltimore Business Journal. Md guild is also lobbying for a separate bill "which would allow brewers to sample and sell beer at farmers' markets," added paper. If passed, both bills would take effect July 1, 2014.  
An abundance of craft brands has created quite the list of tricky decisions and consequences, a panel of industry folks shared at Brew Talks event presented by Brewbound in Atlanta yesterday. For example, retailers face a "fine line for them to walk," since "they're craving professionalism on one side but they want new and innovative on the other side," Left Hand Brewing's East Coast sales mgr Jason Ingram said. Distribs too: they "don't want to turn down the next" big, fast-growing supplier, "but at the same time they could invest in something that in a year isn't gonna be there," he continued. Greenco Beverage owner Russell Farr is "seeing that a lot" too, that is, investments from distribs, "incentivizing" craft brewers to choose their house, putting "skin in the game," which he doesn't take issue with. Some distibs "are playing catch-up" tho, and will "try anything, more an act of desperation," to get new brands, while some distribs "hoard brands" to keep them out of other houses. "Don't choose a statewide distributor when you're starting out," he advised new brewers, encouraging use of AB or MC distribs with smaller footprints. He discouraged using a large statewide distrib that acts as a "creditor" to help fund startup costs after noting that if "you can't find a distributor, that's usually because you're not making good beer." Other recommendations from the panel, outside of lots of reminders to focus first and foremost on quality, included "monitor your numbers" and "know your sales goals," according to Wes, and Jason's "watch your finances, watch your margins."

Big uptick in craft competition leading to myriad consequences in craft segment, panelists noted. For example, some distribs are developing "ADBD" or "Attention Deficit Brand Disorder," Russell quipped. Brewers seeking to keep that from negatively affecting their brands need to invest in salespeople, all panelists agreed. "Boston Beer is 3% of our business and we see them 97% of the time," Russell said. Left Hand has gone from "5 to 25 salespeople in 5 years," Jason said, without adding a new state in 4 yrs: "it's about service now more than anything." That's true for retailers too, as sales folks are "probably not gonna get a sale the first or second time you walk in the door." Wes agreed: Savannah Distributing has added 20 to its salesforce, "going 60 strong now" and growing. Another consequence of craft's breadth that got treatment from panel was rotator bars, which Jason sees as an immediate "opportunity to get in there" that "can be frustrating" once on tap. Wes insisted that "specialty beer...should be an incentive" to carry mainstay brands. Russell concurred, claiming that "to build a brand, all these occasionals, one-offs and special seasonals...should be treated as rewards." Of course, it's not always easy to get an account to think that way, especially as some retailers will "bash" a distrib on social media, where it's "always the distributor's fault," Russell said.  
Tho MillerCoors has long had a notion to expand its craft biz via acquisition by Tenth & Blake division, it's been quiet on that front since purchasing minority stake in Terrapin in 2011. But MC ain't out of the hunt. MC will "look opportunistically at purchasing either regional or local players," sales prexy Ed McBrien told just-drinks newsletter recently. "I would stress opportunistically," Ed added. "The brand has to be right, it has to be a good fit with our distribution network and the price has to be right." Given the number of players who say they'd like to bolt on a craft brewer or two - AB, MC, Crown and NAB at least - and number of potential targets out there, relative quiet on deal front (Blue Point and Boulevard aside) suggests that this combo of factors not comin' up too often.

In same interview, Ed said pending rollout of Smith & Forge cider is clearly an "attempt to make cider more masculine. We were looking for cues," like the name, "that would communicate strong, American tradition, with kind of masculine overtones." Tho Ed claims no more prescience about potential size of cider category in US, he points out that "it's been growing triple digits" here. (Final figure for 2013 cider not yet available, but based on data thru Nov, Lester Jones at Beer Inst estimates cider up from 711K bbls in 2012 to 1.2 mil in 2013.) And Smith & Forge will get "biggest ever media campaign for a cider launch in the US," just-drinks reported. Plenty of room for Crispin to expand distribution and growth, Ed pointed out also. Smith & Forge follows quickly on heels of March intro of superpremium Miller Fortune, which will be "the largest launch of a new product" from MC since inception of the joint venture in 2008, cmo Andy England told NY Times recently. And that followed big bucks behind Redd's Apple Ale last yr in FMB category. Net-net: while attempting to shore up mainstream biz, MC also remains focused on fastest-growing above premium segments: craft, superpremium, FMBs and cider.