Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Juice Press, fast-growing cold-press juice player in NY, is planning major expansion that will add 5 locations around city and on Long Island by summer. Marcus Antebi, who founded 14-unit chain in 2010, just opened location in Chinatown (inside Soho Strength Lab) with workout event with gym's owner, NY Yankee Mark Teixeira, and will next open units in Tribeca and Midtown Manhattan in Mar. Due in May is branch in Bridgehampton, summer playground for the affluent on south fork of LI, and by summer he expects to be open near World Financial Center downtown, with store capable of handling 10X normal throughput for anticipated crowds. By now, Juice Press also delivers its items around country. It professes to be "100% organic, 99% of the time," depending on ingredient availability.  
Acknowledging ongoing struggle to grow what's still CSD-heavy private-label portfolio, Cott Corp said it's retained Credit Suisse to pursue alternatives, including sale of co. Disclosure was made Wed in response to market rumors, but doesn't signal that any deal is imminent, and some Wall Street observers are skeptical that one will emerge. "We think a takeout is unlikely," figures Stifel Nicolaus' Mark Swartzberg. "Financial buyers have long had the opportunity to emerge and have not bid - presumably on concerns about category dynamics, margin structure, customer concentration - and strategic prospects have shown a preference for not competing against Coke and Pepsi." COT, which has twin hq's in Toronto and Tampa, Fla, said the alternatives being explored by Credit Suisse "would either complement its strategy of organic growth and growth through diversification or otherwise enhance shareholder value." Under its current ceo, Jerry Fowden, COT had seemed to make steady progress refocusing biz on core private-label activities after swing toward branded products under prior ceo, and it's moved to diversify portfolio by picking up juice maker Cliffstar and stepping up activities in segments like iced tea. But it's found itself squeezed by branded CSD players' promo efforts in soft segment, even as Cliffstar had to weather soaring fruit costs that sapped demand for juices.  
Karl Marx famously once wrote, "We'll hang the capitalists with the rope they sell us." With its deal to take 10% stake in Keurig maker Green Mountain Coffee Roasters for $1.25 bil, is Coca-Cola proving to be far-sighted visionary or is it merely selling rope to agent of its ultimate demise? Deal unleashed furious mix of opinions - and brief roller coaster ride for shares of GMCR (up) and SodaStream (down) - along with speculation of countermove by PepsiCo. Some observers believe KO move makes it likely that PEP will tie up with SODA next.

As part of deal, KO has set 10-year alliance with co to develop brand portfolio for use in Keurig Cold at-home system that's due next year, a direct challenger to SodaStream and other, less well-known cold systems. KO doesn't have exclusive for any product categories, meaning GMCR is free to solicit PEP, DPS and other cos to create strongest array of brands available cold via system, but KO doesn't have the right to take its brands to other platforms like SODA's. That's one of reasons Stifel Nicolaus' Mark Swartzberg termed deal "lopsided." Note that deal doesn't come entirely as shock: speculation about some kind of alliance had begun to froth as soon as former KO exec Brian Kelley took ceo job at GMCR a year ago, given Brian's well-regarded run on innovation side at KO and co's history of doing deals with former execs, as with alliance on Core Power protein line run by former Coke exec Steve Jones.

To some, it's far-sighted move to garner some modicum of influence and control over what may yet prove to be giant platform. Development is "positive step for KO to increase usage/consumption, further strengthen leadership in non-alcoholic beverages, and enhance brand strength of their beverage portfolio," figures Ali Dibadj of Bernstein Research. "PEP could follow on another platform (or even GMCR)." Recall, too, that other industries are replete with examples of cos that successfully invested in their direct challengers - as Microsoft, for instance, once did in then-struggling Apple Computer as way to protect its base of installed applications.

Others, tho, are taking more dubious view. "History may show that this transaction is the beginning of another major route to market for Coke, following more than a hundred years of growth beginning with fountain, then bottle/can sales. But we doubt it will," wrote Stifel Nicolaus' Swartzberg. "The opportunity is small, will likely frustrate bottlers trying to accelerate bottle/can sales, reflects a bias for pushing brands over innovating 'in the bottle' and carries significant execution risk in its own right." Co might be better off working to broaden its non-CSD innovations rather than finding different ways to push its CSDs, he implied.

Further Irritant to Bottlers, during Delicate Refranchising Talks? Relations with bottlers come as another hard-to-read issue, particularly at time that KO has been discussing refranchising of broad swathes of North American territory with them. Already, KO's desire to hang onto mfg function and to continue to go direct to some large-format retailers' warehouses are disincentives to deal, and now chance that some incremental volume of hard-pressed CSD category will go thru GMCR's network could prove further irritant at critical time. "We suspect Coke bottlers, Coke's main route to market, will be troubled by this relationship," Swartzberg figures. "Green Mountain will make the packets for Keurig Cold, and the new relationship comes while bottlers are trying to accelerate bottle/can sales. If nothing else, this small but 'new' approach will generate a need to appease bottlers, perhaps economically, potentially distracting them from their core business." This is area where, Bernstein's Dibadj believes, Kelley's long familiarity with KO bottlers should stand him in good stead; recall, as a Coke exec he presided over such other delicate issues as Coke's buildup of hotfill capacity and other infrastructure issues. "Kelley should provide insight into this dynamic given his personal experience working in the KO system," Ali wrote.

What Will the KO-K-Cup Be? No carbonated dioxide canisters for starters "like those used in SodaStream," reported Wall Street Journal, given GMCR's conclusion that "consumers found them inconvenient to refill and hard to manipulate." Avoiding CO2 canisters "was one of the highest hurdles in the 5-year process of creating the cold brewer," GMCR ceo Brian Kelley told paper. Other key challenge, of course: instant cold. "We make our hot drinks come out hot quickly; we had to make the cold ones come out cold quickly," said Brian. To do that, "the soda pods will contain 2 chambers . . . the first will have liquid syrup for flavoring; the second will contain a pre-form of carbonation that will be released when the drink-making process starts." The "flash-chilling and pre-measured doses of drink syrup" differentiate new machine from SodaStream and "are probably why quality obsessive Coke is willing to take such an unusual step," noted Journal. Machine "will have a similar design" to GMCR's "boxy coffee maker, and keep the Keurig name," per report. Keurig machines have penetrated 13% of US households while SodaStream have gotten into 1% so far. Will "many consumers" want to spend another $100-200 for a Keurig cold-drink machine to sit next to their coffee machine on the counter?" wondered Journal. Technology has come a long way, but WSJ had to remind that Coke's attempt at a mini-soda-fountain for home use called BreakMate "flopped in early 1990s after great fanfare." Recall also that even long-run impact of broadly admired FreeStyle customized fountain unit is far from clear yet, given low throughput among consumers who're sometimes bewildered by range of flavor choices.  
Celsius Holdings closed 2013 with further signs of turnaround under prexy/ceo Gerry David, notching 51% sales gain of its "negative calorie" line in Q4 to $2.9 mil, and bringing full-year sales up 38% to $10.6 mil. Focus on cost cutting and exit of unprofitable club channel enabled gross margins to rise to 38%, but net loss widened to $494K from $329K in year-earlier qtr. For full year, tho, loss narrowed to $1.83 mil from $2.75 mil. With sales up online, at general retail, in health & fitness and overseas, David argues that foundation has been set for more accelerated growth rate in coming qtrs. "It is pedal to the metal this year," he told BBI. "We have turned the ship."

In US, key DSD partners performed well, he said. In New England, Polar (up 44%) won endcap displays in 212 regional Walgreens units and got 4 sku's placed in energy set at Shaw's chain. Kimball in Tex (+106%) helped grow by 138% at HEB, which added single cans to existing 4-packs. In LA, Haralambos (+104%) helped boost sales at Ralph's chain by 145%. C-store chains QuikTrip and RaceTrac expanded both # of stores that carry Celsius and array of items. Brand is now in 632 Casey's stores in Midwest. Vitamin Shoppe added 12-packs to single cans and 4-packs already in mix. Overseas, production started up in Dusseldorf to support 121% sales gain, and co finalized alliances with distribution partners in China, Brazil, Nigeria, Kenya and Europe. David couldn't say much about ongoing capital raise except that "discussions are going on with several interested parties."  
Coming off 10th consecutive year of growth (8 of those in double digits), natural-channel mainstay Essentia water is tweaking its positioning as it prepares for broad-based assault on general market. Ahead of big push, Seattle-based co has evolved tagline from "Superhydrating Water" to "Hydration Perfected," which will appear on revamped packs and other consumer messaging, said vp marketing & innovation Paul Curhan. Idea is to more approachably emphasize core benefit, rather than focusing too much on high-pH properties or ancillary benefits like relief to acid reflux sufferers, as some rivals do, Paul noted.

As reported, founder Ken Uptain is hitting the gas this year, assembling seasoned sales and marketing team to accelerate push beyond natural channel, where brand has steadily grown to point where it's #1 functional water, with 20 share, about double Smartwater's share and roughly triple Penta's. In 2013, natural-channel sales soared 52% in that channel, per SPINS data that excludes Whole Foods (tho Paul said brand's growth there was comparable). Tho Curhan declined to give a total sales #, SPINS data puts natural-channel sales in $6 mil range, tho Whole Foods biz and even faster-growing online and grocery biz suggest brand may be approaching $8-10 mil range in overall sales. (Overall case sales were up 62% for 2013, co says.) With many consumers drinking a coupla bottles a day, in contrast to more occasion-based Smartwater and Fiji usage, brand has become Amazon's #1 enhanced water, and #2 water overall behind Fiji, Paul noted. To accommodate these regimen users, co will be expanding its multipack offerings. Among general grocers who are expanding brand's footprint is Kroger, which lately has added 750+ stores in Midwest, Southeast and Tex to roster of those carrying brand.  
It's been comparable to what in telecom biz is called the last-mile problem: refrigerated segments like kombucha, HPP juice and cold-brewed coffee are garnering lotsa interest, but most beer houses and other conventional DSD distributors don't have refrigerated trucks to get those brands to retail, even if they have cold space in their warehouses. That's driven brands in those categories to rely instead on dairy houses and other alternatives, with mixed results. Lately, tho, NY market has offered 2 hints that problem may not be insurmountable after all.

Just weeks after NY's Manhattan Beer picked up distribution of refrigerated Reed's Culture Club Kombucha line (BBI, Jan 15), another local beer house, Phoenix Beehive, is entering kombucha fray, via Kombucha Brooklyn (KBBK). With deal effective next week, the Brooklyn-based Heineken and Brooklyn house adds a fellow Brooklyn brand that's built solid on-premise biz via kegs and just restaged its glass-bottle line for broader off-premise appeal (BBI, Dec 17). But given refrigerated nature of KBBK, how was PB even an option?

"Insulated trucks and late-night loading," was answer of PB vp Greg Brayman. Move is logical outgrowth of shift with Pilsner Urquell beer brand that PB imports from Czech Republic, which moved to so-called "reefer" refrigerated intermodal containers to better protect beer quality, necessitating commitment from PB to keep it cold en route to retailers. "Once we did it for Pilsner, it was easier for other brands," Greg noted. By loading KBBK late the previous night or early in the morning, as PB does with most of its cold beer kegs, brand should be able to withstand even city's summer heat.

Move by beer distribution rival Manhattan Beer a coupla weeks earlier to pick up Reed's Culture Club Kombucha had raised some eyebrows because of that brand's refrigerated nature, and Reed's sales chief Neal Cohane declined immediately to discuss move for competitive reasons. (Manhattan already is distributor of Reed's Reed's Ginger Brew and Virgil's soda brands, but those are all shelf-stable.) Some in biz say twin experiments will be carefully watched as potential solution to distribution conundrum for emerging refrigerated categories, tho in wrong hands strategy could prove can of worms. With beer houses around country adding refrigeration space to accommodate their craft beer brands, they've been object of longing to marketers of refrigerated brands looking for DSD options, but last-mile issue has seemed daunting.

At Phoenix Beehive, KBBK joins NA portfolio that includes Polar seltzers, Rockstar Energy, Nu Aquos protein and handful of other NA brands as former beer-only house rapidly steps up its participation on NA side. Brayman said part of appeal of picking up KBBK was strong on-premise position it's established and commitment of founder Eric Childs, who's based in former Pfizer pharmaceutical plant in Brooklyn that's become something of food and bev incubator in recent years.  
Apple & Eve Seen Acquiring Switch, Carbonated-Juice Brand That's Built Big Presence in Schools Nothing's official yet, but looks like Switch Beverage is finalizing deal to be acquired by juice marketer Apple & Eve. Its main investor, Luther King Capital Mgmt, had been rumored to be seeking exit after successful turnaround under ceo Maura Mottolese, who built solid biz for 100% carbonated juice line in nation's school system and has since been working to build retail presence as well. Deal would seem to represent implicit acknowledgement by Long Island-based Apple & Eve that its Switch challenger, cleverly named Fizz Ed, hasn't won durable hold in schools, and it occurs not long after Switch rival Fruit 66, launched by deposed Switch founder Bill Hargis, was acquired by Sun Orchard (BBI, Aug 9). Mottolese, a former Snapple exec, declined to comment but word has trickled out to key distributors that deal is imminent. It's not clear whether Maura and her team will remain in place following sale; as reported earlier this week, one key member of brain trust, sales exec Larry Belka, just surfaced at organic juice brand marketer Purity Organic.  
After 4-year ride at carbonated-juice marketer Switch Beverage, Larry Belka has segued to new role as vp of sales at the SF-based juice drink marketer Purity Organic. Larry boasts long run within new-age bevs, including natl accts role at Nantucket Nectars thru its transition to Cadbury Schweppes (now DPS) ownership, and returning to working for Nantucket Nectars cofounder Tom First at his O Waters project. Under Cadbury vet Maura Mottolese at Switch, Belka helped once-foundering brand broaden its role beyond schools to retail and foodservice . . . Mike Rigney has segued from serving as Northeast point man for Rockstar Energy to similar role at Sparkling Ice marketer Talking Rain, under title Northeast regional key acct mgr. Based in Philadelphia area, Mike has worked on brands such as AriZona, Function, Deep River and Neuro . . . Bottling exec associated with Philadelphia's distinctive black cherry wishniak soda has passed away at age 92. Stanford Frank, of Bala Cynwyd, was last prexy of Frank's Beverages, which he took over from his dad in 1968 and ran until selling off assets in late 1990s. His grandfather Jacob Frank had founded co in 1895 in South Philly and for good stretch it was largest privately owned bev bottling co in Philadelphia area, known for its red trucks plying city's neighborhoods, Philadelphia Inquirer noted. "If it's Frank's, thanks!" was co's long-enduring ad slogan.  
Hain Celestial sales rose 18% to $535 mil in Q2 for Long Island co's first half-bil quarter, but revenue miss of just $2 mil below consensus view sent shares tumbling 10% in early trading in overall down market this morning. Net income at natural food marketer whose brands include Celestial Seasonings teas and BluePrint cleanses rose 30% to $41 mil. In US, sales rose 17% to $328 mil. On conference call, co brass heralded 100 new items to be intro'd at Natural Products Expo West in Anaheim, Calif, next month, including BluePrint renovation cleanse retail pack and Celestial Seasonings tea line called Reflections that's aimed at fostering mid-day relaxation. HAIN execs waxed bullish about BluePrint and Ella's Kitchens acquisitions, saying they combined to meet both top- and bottom-line budget while experiencing strong consumption growth and expanded distribution. In aside, ceo Irwin Simon noted on call that co's commitment to procuring non-GMO ingredients probably adds $100 mil to annual cost of goods. Among ingredients on which HAIN is casting wary eye cost-wise this year is almonds, whose already rising prices are being aggravated by severe drought in Calif.  
Coca-Cola Enterprises closed books on fiscal year with 4th qtr in which it grew volume on both CSD and noncarb side, with big lift offered both by Coke Zero and by energy portfolio that includes Monster Energy. Both will be key focus in 2014, CCE brass indicated. In Q4, volume edged up 2.5%, driven mainly by growth in Coca-Cola trademark brands, including 20% lift for Coke Zero, and energy brands. Growth was balanced among co's 2 key regions, rising 2.5% in Great Britain and 2% in continental Europe. But pricing was down slightly, 0.5%. For period, net sales rose 6% to $2 bil (+3.5% on currency-neutral basis) and operating income surged 45% to $217 mil.

For full year, CSDs grew about 0.5%, including 0.5% growth for Coca-Cola trademark brands, including Coke Zero (+15%). Sparkling flavors grew 1% percent, including 12% growth for energy portfolio. But noncarbs were off 3%, with both water and juices down. Full-year net sales rose 2% to $8.2 bil.  

 

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