Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Just-concluded X Games in Aspen, Colo, brought unusual sight for Monster Energy brand that in past has focused on behind-scenes parties and sponsorship of cutting-edge athletes rather than buying on-site signage or measured media: massive presence that came of its succeeding Red Bull as official energy drink sponsor. During culminating Men's Snowboard Super Pipe event on ESPN on Sun night, for instance, viewers saw unusual sight of athletes like Australia's Scotty James sporting helmet and snowboard emblazoned with twin-bulls emblem of his sponsor, Red Bull, but simultaneously wearing jacket sporting large Monster claw. Giant inflatable Monster can replica towering over lip of half pipe turned fluorescent green at regular intervals, even as athletes attempted difficult tricks like double cork spins and backside 900s just a few feet away. Giant green claw was emblazoned at base of super pipe and in other signage shared with fellow X Games newcomers Harley-Davidson, Cub Gadet, Gildan and Phunkshun Wear Facemasks, along with returning sponsors that included US Navy, Jeep, GoPro and Oakley. Red Bull exited after 2 years, not long after it parted ways with its star athlete, Shaun White, who took pass on X Games at last minute in order to focus on prep for Sochi Olympics in coupla weeks. True to its traditions, Monster didn't air TV ads during coverage on ABC and ESPN.

As part of its sponsor activation, Monster engaged in product sampling, hosted athlete autograph signings and offered private viewing suites from premium space at sponsor village, ESPN noted. As usual, it threw massive party at 11,000-feet altitude at Little Nell, with music from Roofeeo of Brooklyn and DJ Laybourn. Monster athletes liked Silje Norendal, Jamie Anderson, Nate Holland and Bode Merrill ended up winning total of 16 medals across snowboard, ski and snowmobile disciplines featured in Games.

Streelman Signs 2-Yr Deal with Avitae PGA Golfer Kevin Streelman signed 2-year endorsement pact with caffeinated water marketer Avitae USA, marking 7-yr PGA vet's first foray into endorsement space. He'll wear Avitae logo on left collar, starting this week at Phoenix Open, and collaborate in personal appearances and social media. "Kevin is the perfect example of the type of person who loves Avitae," said prexy/ceo Norm Snyder, pointing to Streelman's youth, fitness orientation and role as father of newborn kid.  
Having swapped a striking black package for an aqua-blue one that pops more off shelf, New Whey Nutrition is preparing for multi-million-$ blitz of NY market to test whether its Nu Aquos hybrid protein/sports drink can rack up Muscle Milk-like numbers. Co has signed up Phoenix Beehive to work its 14-county territory in NY metro, joining beer house's other recent NA additions Polar Seltzer and Rockstar Energy, and committed $2.5 mil to funding massive sampling effort by 10 full-time sales reps and 6 full-time demo people, said sales vp Bob Miller. Staffers will undertake such activities as handing 5 cases' worth of product to athletes coming off high school fields, with view to putting nearly 20K cases into consumers' hands during launch. If brand uptake supports that investment, well-funded co will roll out approach to other markets, he said.

Recall that Nu Aquos has sought to carve out unique niche as more drinkable protein line than leader Muscle Milk and its many close imitators, making line hybrid between hydrating sports drink and conventional muscle play. But when black package proved too recessive at retail, co made anticipated move to lighter look (BBI, Oct 22), in process dialing up protein identity in package graphics and also making flavor profiles more readable. (New look can be viewed at NuAquos.com.)

Tho NY is epicenter of launch, co has been recruiting DSD partners for other markets, including such indie distributors in New England as Great State/Blue Coast, Bayside and Atlas, NJ houses JD, Fisher-Thompson and Seaview. Further out west, Miller and his team are building DSD in Mich, starting with Detroit's Intrastate, and out west they've signed likes of Golden (Utah), Crown (Reno, Nev), Southern Wines (Las Vegas), Admiral (NM), Saccani (Sacramento) and Geyser Bev (Bay Area). Even smaller market like Scranton, Penn (via Canada Dry Scranton) is getting full-time staffer, and "if New York works, we'll flood those markets," Miller assured.

Funded by Topspin Partners of Long Island, NY, and run by ceo Chuck Walkley, New Whey has pair of 3.8-oz tubes in lineup - New Whey protein and BetaNox energy - tho Nu Aquos is viewed as chance to go big. DSD partners are being offered BetaNox, which contains 200 mg of caffeine, but not New Whey, which contains 42 g of protein and moves thru retailers like Walmart and nutrition retailers GNC and Vitamin Shoppe but isn't seen as holding similar mainstream potential.  
Quarterly "Beverage Buzz" survey of c-store operators by Wells Fargo's Bonnie Herzog once again has proved trove of interesting insights into trends at that impulse-driven, hi-margin retail channel. Her reporting base (accounting for 15K US stores) is bullish on energy, tea and juice in 2014, anticipates continued declines in CSDs (and isn't buying into notion that breakthrough in all-natural sweetener will make meaningful difference) and seems ready to throw in towel on Dr Pepper Snapple's heavily marketed 10-calorie Ten platform. Even that engineering marvel devised by Coca-Cola, the Freestyle fountain unit, draws skepticism that it's workable in this - and even other - channels. Some highlights:

Q4 Sales Gains Driven by Energy, Teas From responses, Bonnie guesstimates that NA bev trends rose about 5% "driven almost entirely by energy and relative strength in teas, which offset 6% declines expected in CSDs." Given importance of CSDs in overall mix, "we continue to be concerned about US beverage volumes and are cautious about Q4 and FY13 results for our beverage coverage universe."

All-Natural Sweetener Not Viewed as 'Holy Grail' While big bevcos have bet heavily on potential of good-tasting, all-natural sweetener to turn around CSDs, c-store guys polled by Herzog aren't buying in: "Almost universally, our retailers do not believe that an all-natural sweetener will have a positive impact on the declining CSD category." Yikes. This may in part be driven by skepticism that what big bevcos regard as "natural" won't be perceived by public that way. "As long as the sweetener is 'beaker-born,' customers will not accept it," remarked one.

Will Roles Reverse, with Pepsi Going More Aggressive on Promos? In recent qtrs, it's been Pepsi that's called for price discipline while KO has been willing to go deep to win share. Bonnie's survey suggests that c-store operators see reversal coming. "Looking forward to 2014, our retailer contacts expect KO to raise prices, which would drive top-line results, and profitability should benefit further from refranchising initiatives, as KO will have 'more control over syrup costs and thus the ability to increase their profits,'" she notes. On PEP front, tho, "several retailers expect PEP may become more aggressive with promos to 'buy back share.'"

Several Retailers Say They'll Drop DPS Ten in Spring Resets In analyst community, Herzog has been perhaps most outspoken skeptic of DPS' Ten CSD platform as unsuccessful money drain. Her tone darkens in this survey as she reports that some 75% of respondents indicated DP10 is generating weak repeat sales, "a trend that has continued to worsen for the past 4 quarters." Thus, "we increasingly have concerns about the long-term viability of Ten. In fact, several retailers indicated intentions to pull the platform during spring resets . . . We therefore continue to be hopeful that management doesn't continue to 'throw good money after bad' and re-considers any further investment in the platform." Some of specific comments from unidentified respondents are scathing. "It is a bust from a marketing approach. Cut bait and run," said one. This from another: "Horrible line of product. The only one with a shot to hang in is DP10 (the Dr Pepper-branded entry)."

Monster Innovation Promising, but Hindered by Conflicting Priorities at Partner Coke? From survey, it seems that furor over possibly harmful effects of caffeine and energy drinks is blowing over, with Monster Energy biggest winner. At this point, 87% of respondents suggeseted there's been no negative impact. "Never had one comment from a customer regarding energy drinks and health," one respondent noted. From survey results, Herzog extrapolates that Monster's growth has been accelerating from 9% in Q2 to 12% in Q3 to 13% in Q4, thanks to less negative media coverage and product innovations like Zero Ultra and Muscle Monster. Still, one c-store exec questioned whether results on protein-infused Muscle Monster wouldn't be better with greater focus from distribution partner Coke: "Monster Muscle late to the party - distributed through Coke network and they were more concerned with getting Core Power in and established (could be longer-term issues for Monster with heavy reliance on Coca-Cola for distribution)."

Limited Upside to Coke's Freestyle Unit? Freestyle may be quite an engineering marvel for allowing customers to customize their drinks among near-infinite array of flavor combos, but c-store operators show limited enthusiasm for machine in their channel, and one even suggests KO move to what you might call open-source approach. "Would not work too well in c-store," per that respondent, which echoed others. "People are in a hurry. The Freestyle machine creates a major backlog on customers. Local Wendy's is having all kinds of issues with customers taking too long to make a decision and backing up. Several in our office avoid Wendy's to some extent over this. Also, is Coke exclusive? Customers want Coke, Diet Coke, Pepsi, Mt Dew - co-branding."  
CSD volume slipped 1.4% last 4 wks thru Jan 19 in IRI's all-outlet (incl gas/c-store, dollar, club, food, Walmart and military) data reported by Morgan Stanley's Dara Mohsenian. That's half CSD decline of -2.8% over last 12 wks in all outlets. Pricing edged up: +0.4% for 4 wks vs -0.3% avg over 12 wks. While regular full-calorie CSD volume eked out 0.9% gain, diet CSD volume plunged 6.7% last 4 wks. PepsiCo CSD volume increased 1.3% with avg 2% price drop over last 4 wks. Coca-Cola volume slid 1.5% with 1.2% price increase while Dr Pepper Snapple volume (-0.2%) and pricing (-0.3%) were down slightly for 4 wks. Private-label CSDs bore brunt, struggling with 15% volume hit on 0.5% price increase. That's in line with 14.5% decline over 12-wk period.

Energy Volume up 7.7%; Flat Pricing Energy drink volume increased 7.7% in all outlets for last 4 wks, a slight improvement over 7.4% gain pace for 12 wks. Pricing for segment was flat last 4 wks, up from -0.4% avg over past 12 wks. Once gain Monster outperformed: +15.7% with avg 1.2% price drop while Red Bull volume up 9% on very slight (+0.1%) price increase. Rockstar volume was up 10% on 3.3% price drop, in line with its 12-wk pricing. PepsiCo energy drink pricing remained low (-4.1%) and that helped boost volume to +15% last 4 wks. Coca-Cola prices were also down 4% but volume trends worsened to -4.7% last 4 wks from -2.7% over last 12 wks. Private-label energy drink volume was basically flat despite 6.4% price drop.

Sports Drinks Slowed Sports drinks volume slowed to 1.2% gain in all outlets over 4 wks, down from 1.9% gain pace over 12 wks. Avg prices edged up from +0.3% to +1.1% though last 4 wks. PEP's Gatorade volume rose 1.6% on 1.7% price increase while KO's Powerade slipped 0.1% on 1% price drop over those 4 wks.

Lower Pricing Lifts Water Volume Levels A 5% avg price drop in all outlets helped improve bottled water volume gains to +12.5% last 4 wks vs 8.6% gain pace last 12 wks. Nestle Waters had most modest gain but also most modest price decrease. Its volume rose 5.8% on avg 1% price drop while KO water volume rose 6.4% on steeper 6% price drop. Meanwhile, PEP's avg price drop of 11.4% helped boost volume to 13.4% gain. Private-label waters picked up 12.7% over those 4 wks on avg 4% price drop.

Price Cuts Boosting DPS, Coke's Tea Biz RTD tea volume improved from +1.9% last 12 wks to 2.3% gain last 4 wks even as prices went higher. Avg price up 2.5% last 4 wks vs 1.6% increase last 12 wks. But that disguised divergent approaches by Big 3. Dr Pepper Snapple volume jumped 11.3% on 4.7% price drop while KO teas shot up 13.3% on 2.1% price drop last 4 wks. By contrast, PEP teas (mainly Lipton) managed to gain 2.3% even with 5.7% price hike last 4 wks. Private-label volume plunged 14% in all outlets over both the 4- and 12-wk periods, even with high-single-digit price drops.  

Former Big Red leader Don Sharp passed away yesterday at his home in Waco, Tex, at age 77, Big Red exec informed BBI. Don, who was inducted into Beverage World's Soft Drink Hall of Fame in 2002, was long identified with iconic Texas soft drink, which in recent years has relocated from Waco to Austin. Funeral services will be held at 1 pm on Mon at St Paul's Episcopal Church, followed by burial at Oakwood Cemetery. Visitation with Sharp's family will be 5 to 7 pm on Sun at OakCrest Funeral Home in Waco.  

Returning to NY on redeye flight from Fancy Food Show in SF, BBI editor endured nearly 70 degree drop in temp, reflection of soaring winter temps and drought on West Coast and plummeting temps and heavy precipitation out East. What's that divergence mean for bevs in short term? RBC Capital Markets' Nik Modi pegs Monster Beverage and Coca-Cola as winners, given their heavier skew to West Coast. Parsing data, Nik notes that 21% increase in overall US precipitation masks divergence that saw 54% gain in Northeast and 64% drop on W Coast, relative to historical averages. (Calif declared drought emergency this week.) So conditions out West are far more conducive to CSD consumption. That seems to be borne out by syndicated data: Northeast saw cola sales decline 5.3% in Dec vs "significant acceleration" on W Coast that saw -4% trend for 52 weeks reversed with 4.4% gain in Dec. Ditto for overall CSD category, down 3.5% in Northeast but up 4.7% on W Coast. Modi's conclusion: "We believe Coca-Cola and Monster stand to benefit the most from the geographical divergence in growth trends, as both of these have a higher skew to the West Coast."  
In Davos, Switzerland, today, PepsiCo said it plans on investing $5 bil in Mexico market over next 5 yrs. PEP plans to spend money in 4 key areas - innovation and brand building, infrastructure, agriculture and community investment - as way "to create 4,000 new jobs in the Mexican economy" during period. Besides investing in its current portfolio of food/bev brands, PEP expects "to expand the range of products" as well. Investments will comprise both new manufacturing lines and "additional selling and delivery infrastructure."  
Brands Within Reach's Fancy Food Show presence reflected several directions being taken by brand incubator. Tho agency brands like Volvic water continue to be key revenue generators, BWR has been riding such strong reception for its first snack line, Go Go Squeeze on-the-go apple sauce pouches, that it's expanding snacks presence. On bev side, surprising velocity of Brit elderflower obscurity called Belvoir has BWR dialing up focus and line extensions for boutique line. It's also dipping toe into alkaline-water segment, and offering assistance to natural-foods stalwart Steaz. But one brand on which there was no progress to report - or none that prexy Olivier Sonnois was ready to discuss - was Evian, which BWR has helped Danone to move back into growth mode within natural channel even as it's performed well on Danone's Volvic brand. With Evian now having definitively severed distribution ties to Coca-Cola, might there be broader role for BWR? Nothing to report on that front, Olivier insisted.

The snacks first: strong reception of Go Go Squeeze has taken brand to $100 mil at wholesale in 2013, in barely 2 ½ years, thanks to high velocities at Costco, Walmart and other mass retailers, Sonnois contended. So now BWR is adding to portfolio, starting in Feb with Nothin' But granola cookies and bars, popular new item in UK. (Bars are baked, not extruded.) Also at booth - as "test run" before any formal commitment, he said - was Michel et Augustin line from France.

Tho not on magnitude of Go Go Squeeze, Belvoir Fruit Farms Elderflower Presse also has proved multi-million-$ surprise, moving briskly thru 1,500 US stores despite being based on ingredient few have heard of (tho elderflower is turning up more in other food categories) and charging superpremium price for tiny bottle by US standards. Aside from core lines like Volvic, it's one of BWR's highest-velocity brands, with barely any marketing so far, Sonnois marveled. It's adding orange-label Ginger Beer in Mar to current white-label Elderflower and pink-label Rose Lemonade, with 2 more flavors due by Expo West in early Mar. It also recently added 750-ml bottles for first 2 flavors, priced at $4.99-5.99. Brand assignment was result of random elevator encounter with Belvoir creator and producer Peverel Manners at Anuga food show in Cologne a year ago but it's fast becoming core BWR brand. In core markets like Southern Calif, Fla and Ill it moves thru Southern Wine & Spirits, and commands up to $8 per bottle in Delano Hotels minibars.

Among other BWR activities, its Nu organic juice smoothie is now in Whole Foods' Northeast and Mid-Atlantic divs as well as Calif. Aseptically packed brand is adding Pomegranate Acai Cranberry flavor to mix. BWR also has been quietly assisting tea mainstay Steaz in Whole Foods and soon is likely to help it revive DSD effort in NY, Sonnois said. And it was exhibiting alkaline water called Qure 9.5+, which claims to employ secret overseas source for naturally alkaline liquid for greater stability, in contrast to rivals that add sodium benzoate. Brand info at QureWater.com.  
Service footprint in Conn of acquisitive Northeast Beverage just got bigger with quiet addition on Fri of Tomasetti Distributors in Meriden. Both are members of influential NIDA DSD distributors alliance offering coverage throughout northeastern states. Deal gives Northeast a contiguous operation that also has gone by name Canada Dry Bottling Co of Meriden, Conn, and is believed to do roughly 500K cases of NA brands like Snapple, Sparkling Ice, Canada Dry, Mistic and Nantucket Nectars, in southwestern portion of state. It's believed, tho, that Canada Dry brand has fled to local Coke bottling operation following change in control. Northeast Beverage, based in Orange, Conn, is part of Mancini Cos of W Greenwich, RI, which also operates Rhode Island Distributing Co/C&C Distributors out of W Greenwich as well as a flooring co. Northeast picked up Conn Bev Co, now Northeast Beverage of Conn, in 06. No comment from Mancini Cos at press time. Of the 2 distribution cos, Northeast is viewed as more aggressive in takin' flier on new brands and concepts, potentially making Tomasetti's footprint more welcoming to new entries.  
KeVita, positioned as more approachable sparkling probiotic drink than kombucha, has been on hiring blitz lately. Latest aboard is Jim Linesch, who comes in as cfo on Feb 10 after 5 years in similar role at Reed's Inc (BBI, Jan 23). Jim said he'll take on "cross-functional" role that includes product development at Oxnard, Calif-based marketer and producer. As earlier noted, avid kombucha homebrewer had played similar hybrid role at Reed's, where he helped develop and launch co's Culture Club Kombucha that's been major strategic focus over past coupla years. Tho that's been fun run, Jim explained move by saying, "the goals of KeVita are more closely aligned with my interests and expertise in probiotic drinks and foods." KeVita was created by former winemaker Bill Moses, its ceo, and is known to have engaged in talks with PepsiCo over prospective investment, tho it's not known whether those talks reached fruition. Co hasn't commented.

Tho Reed issued release earlier this week that seemed to suggest it wanted higher-horsepower cfo, now it seems that Linesch's planned departure came as surprise there. His arrival at KeVita will occur just as co has added as svp sales Tim Arneson, who came with 26 years' experience on such PepsiCo trademarks as Naked, Quaker, Tropicana and Gatorade and more recently handled national accounts at energy drink brand FRS, which at time was moving thru PEP's QTG distribution system. In as sales directors are Odwalla vet Brett Lanford, handling western markets, and PepsiCo and Aquahydrate vet Rich Lust, handling eastern region. They'll be working out of recently occupied 20K-square-foot hq facility in Oxnard that doubles size of manufacturing space to support national rollout of brand.