Beer Marketer's Insights
On digital, "the internal research the companies supplied made clear that they were still trying to figure out 'what works' with digital marketing," i.e. content that connects, what's most likely to get clicked, best mix of digital and traditional. Digital ads "may change the overall dynamic of advertising," FTC wrote. Digital ads "boost recall of TV ads by 33%," one study showed. "Organic searches (such as Google queries) and social media" (like Facebook and online "sentiment") "amplified traditional marketing effects by 10% and…nearly 40% of radio's impact was due to this synergy," one company reported.
Then too, suppliers spending tons to figure out "what works" across all mktg. One large co told FTC it surveys 300 adults age 21-55 every week. Another surveys 8,640 adults/yr. And suppliers going beyond analyzing self-reported behavior. One tool "allows marketers to compare the relationship between expenditures for various kinds of marketing efforts and sales volumes in various outlets," on- and off- premise. One internet co provides data to suppliers from base of consumers that allows it to track their internet surfing habits and "scan their purchases" to judge effectiveness of digital ads. Using this technology, one co spent $2.4 mil on campaign across major online sites. Got 242 mil impressions and reported "28% increase in sales of its products in households exposed to the campaign," compared to others. Once again, industry self-regulation got high marks from FTC. Top suppliers met their "placement standards" (70% of audience is adult) 99.5% of the time with digital ads, 93.1% with traditional media, including 95-98% for television.
At convention, MillerCoors dialed up praise of distribs, and its improved relations with them. <u>"More than 125" MC distribs "have more than a 50 share of the profit pool in their market,"</u> said ceo Tom Long. "Together we are very strong," stressed Tom. MC has "partnership model" based on "collaboration and alignment" with distribs. MillerCoors has also moved to add "more value" to distribs in "area of Revenue Management," said sales prexy Ed McBrien. Rev Mgt team has more than 60 people "dedicated to optimizing price and mix realization for all of us," he said. <u>In 4th qtr, "we grew net revenue per barrel more than twice as fast as ABI"</u> thru combo of mix and "smart front line increases." Yr-to-date "our average price realization is beating every major player. We get it…. Our revenue management team is helping all of us make more money." Rev mgt team also eliminated $15 mil in unproductive promos last yr and targeting another $15 mil this yr, Ed said. MC now <u>category captain in 47% of its volume</u>, about double where it was when JV began. Chain accounts are 20% of the outlets, but 41% of total MC volume. <u>Many brands get over 50% of their volume from chain</u>, including hi-end brands like Leinie's, Blue Moon, Redd's, and Fortune.
| Major Brewers' and Importers' Media Spending | ||||
| All $$ figures 000 | ||||
| 2012-2013 | ||||
| 2013 | 2012 | $ chg | % chg | |
| Bud | 84,726 | 112,510 | -27,784 | -24.7 |
| Bud Light | 317,513 | 294,319 | 23,194 | 7.9 |
| Bud Lt Plat | 23,195 | 31,286 | -8,091 | -25.9 |
| Bud Lt Lime | 6,563 | 18,441 | -11,878 | -64.4 |
| Bud Lt Ritas | 11,430 | 2,677 | 8,753 | 327.0 |
| Select 55 | 140 | 4,766 | -4,626 | -97.1 |
| Busch/Lt | 2,017 | 2,597 | -580 | -22.3 |
| Michelob Ultra | 43,358 | 49,317 | -5,959 | -12.1 |
| Natural/Ice | 499 | 196 | 303 | 154.6 |
| Stella Artois | 25,195 | 36,349 | -11,154 | -30.7 |
| Other | 70,001 | 23,736 | 46,265 | 194.9 |
| AB | 584,637 | 576,194 | 8,443 | 1.5 |
| Lite | 151,761 | 154,861 | -3,100 | -2.0 |
| Miller 64 | 14,361 | 34,298 | -19,937 | -58.1 |
| High Life | 646 | 3,456 | -2,810 | -81.3 |
| Coors Lt | 148,814 | 137,591 | 11,223 | 8.2 |
| Coors Banquet | 28,558 | 29,897 | -1,339 | -4.5 |
| Keystone (All) | 234 | 183 | 51 | 27.9 |
| Redd's | 29,418 | 219 | 29,199 | |
| Other | 60,794 | 37,508 | 23,286 | 62.1 |
| MillerCoors | 434,586 | 398,013 | 36,573 | 9.2 |
| Crown | 120,693 | 86,567 | 34,126 | 39.4 |
| HUSA | 115,434 | 116,886 | -1,452 | -1.2 |
| Boston | 37,068 | 36,263 | 805 | 2.2 |
| DGUSA | 52,072 | 44,161 | 7,911 | 17.9 |
| Mike's | 5,626 | 10,803 | -5,177 | -47.9 |
| Top Suppliers | 1,350,116 | 1,268,887 | 81,229 | 6.4 |
| Others | 37,529 | 21,793 | 15,736 | 72.2 |
| Total | 1,387,645 | 1,290,680 | 96,965 | 7.5 |
Crown's $$ increase very close to MC's, +$34 mil, but nearly 40%, passing $100-mil-mark for 1st time. About ¾ of Crown spend went to Corona (+40% in 2013). But Crown also spent $24 mil on Modelo Especial (+55%). HUSA increased Heineken support by 5%, but cuts for other brands (very modest for Dos, bigger for others) meant overall $$ down 1%. Diageo Guinness really juiced support for both Guinness brand (+45%) and FMBs (doubled) without boosting trends. Conversely, Boston Beer got great growth tho it spent just 2% more overall and cut Sam $$ slightly. And Mike's posted 6% gain despite cutting media spend nearly in half, according to Nielsen. One of few constants in following this story over the years: rarely does brand performance align with spend.
Biggest applause for Miller Lite pkg and new ads; easily its best-received bundle in many yrs. Applause started as soon as MC cmo Andy England showed Lite retro can. Lite can sales-to-retailers up 6% since launch and overall Lite trends much improved (tho not up). Lite gaining volume share in Nielsen so far this yr. Original look will be expanded to other pkgs and "original" positioning now extended to several well-received and funny new ads. Coors Light portion of program didn't have as much new news or get as enthusiastic a response as Lite. But amount of Coors Light Summer Brew to be produced upped by 50% (editor's note: to about 200K bbls). And Andy presented 5-pt program to get Coors Light back to growth. Included benefit of growth of Coors Banquet with new ad featuring Coors family.
Heavy emphasis on innovation and high-end continued with MillerCoors offering lots of new news, big spending and growth stories. "We're moving with more speed to bring you more innovation on more fronts than anybody in the business," said sales prexy Ed McBrien. MC gained 70 basis points of share above premium yr-to-date in Nielsen, said Tom, while ABI gained 20. Big bet this yr will be Miller Fortune, biggest new product launch since JV's inception. Fortune got 330,000 points of distribution in 1st 3 weeks (almost 2x what was expected). Grabbed 0.4 share outta gate, sold over 1 mil cases by convention, said Tom.
MillerCoors also pushing much further on Redd's in effort to get it over 1 share of $$ and #1 in FMBs (Redd's sold approx 700,000 bbls in 2013). Redd's will have "largest FMB spend in the business," said innovations veep David Kroll, add a variety pack including Redd's Hard Tea, plus a Cranberry flavor coming this fall and Wicked, its entrant in 8% ABV sector, coming this Aug. Surprisingly, men account for about 70% of Redd's volume. Third Shift didn't set world on fire in 2013, but still sold 1.4 mil cases, said David. This yr, MC changed packaging, simplified story, improved price-positioning and will be adding new Session IPA, "expected to be fastest growing style" in craft this yr. Tenth and Blake grew over 1 mil bbls last 3 yrs, "damn close to $100 million of distributor margin growth," said prexy Tom Cardella. Blue Moon up to 2 mil bbls and Leinenkugel closing in on 1 mil bbls, over half Shandy. Blue Moon has 2d highest rev per point of distribution of any brand on-premise, said Tom, citing GuestMetrics. Summer spend will be up more than 30% on Blue Moon Brewing Co with 40% of summer spend on spot for Summer Honey Wheat. Tho Seasonals already about 300,000 bbls of Blue Moon volume, MC has extensive plan to improve its seasonals program. Other efforts include two-pronged cider plan, with hi-end Crispin and Smith & Forge aimed at men. Separately, MC also putting more emphasis on Miller High Life and Keystone Light, each back on tv with new ad campaigns.
Numbers suggest segment still picking up steam and not all of its growth visible even to those in biz. Indeed, INSIGHTS had estimated more like 14-15% growth, based on trends among top 30 craft brewers (about 2/3 of craft volume), plus IRI and GuestSciences data. What did we and others miss? Smaller craft brewers collectively hitting it out of park. "Anyone who has toured the tasting room scene in a craft beer hotspot in the past few years," wrote BA economist Bart Watson, "knows that a large part of the dynamism of our sector occurs outside standard scan channels." So many newbies, vibrancy of tasting room and brewpub scene in craft hotbeds and very fast growth of smaller craft brewers could easily have added several hundred thousand bbls of growth in 2014.
New locally oriented craft brewers keep coming in waves. Colo Brewers Guild recently released economic impact study that showed there were 232 craft brewers in Colo at end of 2013, and smaller taprooms opening at rate of one a week. There are almost 420 breweries in Calif, 188 in Oreg, etc. But exports also took off for craft brewers in 2013, up almost 100,000 bbls, 50% last yr. Make no mistake, craft is getting to be big biz. Hey, even the small brewers assn is big. Brewers Assn revs up 31% to $17.6 mil in 2013, it reported. That's several times size of Beer Inst, big brewers assn. Speaking of BA, it changed its definition of craft, effectively adding 3 mil bbls to craft total starting in 2014. BA broadened net to include traditional brewers like Yuengling, Schell and Straub (previously excluded for use of adjuncts). Under BA's new definition craft would have already been over 9 share in 2013. BA's new definition of craft will likely surpass 10% in 2014 if early growth holds up. Craft continuing to grow at rapid clip; up 18% in IRI multi-outlet + convenience thru Feb 23 and up 14% in Nielsen all-outlet for 1st 2 mos.
BA used to have goal to hit 10 share by 2017, but has already raised bar. Now sets sights on 20 share by 2020. To get there would mean even more radical shift in industry dynamics in next 6-7 yrs. Here's one way 20 by 2020 could happen: if beer biz continues to decline about 1% per yr and craft continues to grow at a double digit pace. Craft would need to grow about 11% per yr, slower than last several yrs. But here's the rub in this scenario: everybody else would have to decline 34 mil bbls, 18% in 6-7 yrs. That's steeper than last 5 yrs, maybe a stretch with Crown also presently growing at about a 10% clip and HUSA gaining slight share. Implies a steeper drop for big brewers.
At same time, AB and MC are making their own plays to get bigger in craft space. AB's Shock Top and Goose Island and MC's Blue Moon and Leinenkugel have grown 3 mil bbls in just last 4 yrs, tripling their biz. Seemingly hasn't slowed craft down at all; may have sped it up. Craft already about 12 share if they, CBA and Magic Hat/Pyramid included. If you throw in Guinness, Newcastle, Negra Modelo and other non-lager or darker beers, you quickly get to around 14 share. Add in almost 4 share of FMBs and about 18 share of beers are non-traditional lager or light lager beers. That's up 7 share in last 5 yrs. Definitions are arbitrary, but clear that American consumers' palates are changing rapidly. In early 2014, craft brewers continue in a very sweet spot. Craft brewers will come to annual Craft Brewers Conference on a high and not just because it's in Denver.
Recall, Indy gas stations, c-stores, grocers and pharmacies sued the state in fed ct earlier this yr to get the right to sell cold beer. The case goes to trial this week, with 2-day hearing scheduled, Indy Star and others report. Indy (and only Indy) restricts cold beer sales to on-premise outlets and package stores. Previous bids to change the law in the legislature have failed. Retailers argue that law violates their equal protection rights, citing recent Ky case that ruled state could not similarly discriminate between retail outlets. Liquor stores defend status quo, charge that changing law would be unfair to them and rely on 21st Amendment’s grant of broad states’ rights to regulate.
Indy has become a hotbed of alc bev regulation debate. It was focal point for direct shipping yrs back. More recently, there’s attempt by AB distribs to broaden franchise protection against wishes of brewers, MC distribs, others. Then too, big MC distrib Monarch in fed lawsuit to obtain right to add liquor to its biz. Legislature is considering bill to allow alc bev sales at state fair. And there will be another bid to expand Sunday sales via legislation in 2015, same retailers bringing suit promise.
Not just Boston Beer execs who took advantage recently of their co’s surging share price (see last Express). Constellation ceo/prexy Rob Sands exercised options for 192K shares at $16.63 and sold same amount at mkt price of $79.15 and $79.30 last week, for gain of $12 mil. Brother Richard did same deal on 243K shares for $15.2 mil gain. And exec veep/genl counsel Thomas Mullin cashed in 60K shares for gain of $3.7 mil. Musta made for Happy Valentine’s Day in Victor, NY, Constellation’s hometown.
It’s early days, but lotsa buzz around Miller Fortune, biggest new bet from MC in above premium. Brand’s getting good distribution quickly, we keep hearing, so key will be pull-through. Fortune is “largest launch of a new product” since MC formed in 2008, cmo Andy England told NY Times ad columnist Stuart Elliott. “Significant spending” will exceed Redd’s spend last yr, Andy said (Stuart cites figure from Kantar Media of $23.1 mil on media for Redd’s for 9 mos 2013). Ads coming soon use Brit actor Mark Strong as “mysterious character,” said Andy, and include tag lines “Open Pandora’s bottle” and “Your Fortune awaits.” More about media approach from ad agency officer: Fortune aims to expand oppys for beer beyond typical “beervertising,” tailgates, parties and sophomoric humor to spirits occasions/drinkers, as MC has said all along. Fortune could be “mood enhancer, a trigger for change in your night versus ‘you know where it’s going,’” she said. While Times gave Fortune solid play, coverage elsewhere a bit spottier. Not everyone making distinction between “bourbon-inspired” (which Fortune kind of is) to target spirits occasions and “bourbon-flavored” (which it isn’t). But perhaps MC trying to make too fine a distinction. Then too, MC can’t be too happy with headlines like “Miller Coors hikes beer alcohol level to entice younger drinkers” or “MillerCoors Releases Miller Fortune, New Highly Alcoholic Dark Beer Designed to Compete with Spirits.”
Meanwhile, yesterday AB announced new “Rise As One” global ad campaign and limited edition gold bottle, other new packaging for Budweiser tied to upcoming World Cup tournament in Brazil. In US, pkgs include 16-oz aluminum bottle, 25-oz can and 11.3-oz bowtie can. New ads will break online Mar 5, with plenty of natl television, local programs, outdoor and social media components to follow.
Nothing like serious new competition and disagreement over franchise protection to heat up a freezing New England state in Feb. But Mass a hot spot on both fronts right now. Pending Yuengling intro being treated as big deal, not only by Yuengling and its distribs, but key competitors as well. AB prepared to spend $10+ mil in response, is number that’s floating around. And Craft Brewers Guild (L. Knife’s craft arm) threw big bash for retailers to welcome Yuengling last week, reports Brewbound.com. AB’s March pricing plans call for reductions (wholesale to retail) of 80 cents per 24/12 case on Bud family to $15.85 (we’ve also heard lower prices on loose cans), almost a buck on Michelob family, plus deals for Platinum, Shock Top. MC responding too, we hear, tho not as aggressively for now. Recall that in first few mos of Yuengling intro in Ohio at end of 2011, it grabbed nearly 10 share across 3 channels, more in grocery stores. AB and MC surely don’t want repeat of those numbers. Meanwhile, sales sheet has appeared in Boston mkt warning retailers that “excitement” surrounding Yuengling intro “could cost you a lot of money.” Why’s that? Buyers of brands like Sam Adams, Blue Moon, Harpoon, wine and spirits, flyer depicts, will try Yuengling at retailers’ expense. “To protect your bottom line,” flyer advises retailers to “price Yuengling like a craft beer” (which Yuengling does not advise), “sell it only in bottles,” trade domestic drinkers up and “make your $$$$ while you can.” Did someone say beer biz is a bit competitive?
Meanwhile, small brewers in Mass continue to seek franchise reform that would allow brewers to terminate without cause if distrib that loses brand gets fair mkt value. Distribs claim current law and process to move brands work just fine. In latest round of press, Boston Globe came out again in defense of small brewers in editorial today. “Small brewers are hemmed in by rules that restrict one key aspect of their business,” Globe sez: distribution. Globe countered hearing testimony from Bill Kelley, prexy of Beer Distribs of Mass, that bill would lead to “arbitrary and capricious” decision by small brewers to terminate. Speculated that Mass distribs less concerned about tiny craft brewers than those “that straddle the line between niche and mass-market status” (i.e. Boston Beer) and fear that bigger brewers could seek similar rights. In any case, “to encourage growth” of craft brewing, “lawmakers should be willing to cut these small-scale breweries a break,” Globe concludes.
Today’s editorial follows op-ed by Bill Kelley in Globe last week. Bill attributed “much” of craft’s success in state to distribs’ support as they play “vital part” in sales/mktg of craft. Proposed bill would change already “flexible laws” that regulate brewer-distrib relationship and allow brands to move. Then too, proposal would create “instability that would directly impact the ability and willingness” of distribs to make needed investments, could harm new small brewers, consumer choice, etc. Bill wrote too that it’s “unfortunate that giants like Sam Adams and Harpoon would push such unfair legislation.” Op-ed really stirred up small brewers, we’re told. Did someone say franchise reform is sensitive topic?

