Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

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AB spent $149 mil last 5 yrs and was top Super Bowl spender, over $50 mil more than #2 spender Pepsi, according to Nielsen analysis featured in Ad Week.   The rest of the top 6: Coke at $62 mil, Volkswagen at $57 mil and Fiat at $55 mil.  The average $4 mil for a 30-second spot is nearly 50x greater than avg prime time spot, Nielsen notes. 

ABI “gave a short presentation to investors on the aircraft carrier The Intrepid yesterday (adjacent to the Bud Light Hotel),” noted ISI’s Robert Ottenstein.  His “bottom line” assessment: “New US CMO Jorn Soquet probably has the toughest job at ABI today.”  Jorn has “done a strong job in Canada.”  Here in US, “expect more social media and a lot of changes.” Here’s quote from Jorn in Strategy mag: “We no longer look at media planning, we look at connection planning.  Where can we intercept a consumer? Where is he willing to listen to us?”  That article, according to Rober, contrasted departing CMO Paul Chibe’s focus on “drawing consumers to large events” with Soquet’s use of “technology and small-scale experiential advertising to reach people where they already are.” Robert added: “Most investors think that Bud Light and Budweiser will continue to lose volume and share.” Unless economy improves for middle and working class consumers, “it’s hard to argue otherwise.”  “Moreover,” Robert notes that US not like Canada “where third party distribution is less important. Socquet and his partner David Almeida (head of sales) must find a better way to connect with and energize their distributors,” he concluded.

After hearing on proposed changes to Indiana franchise law earlier this week – supported by Indy Bev Alliance, assn of AB distribs, but opposed by big brewers/importers, MC distribs, two retailer assns – AB put out statement.  “After overwhelming industry opposition was expressed” during hearing, AB said, “the chairman of the Indiana Senate Public Policy Committee set aside the bill and urged all parties to work to address the remaining issues.”  AB also said it would work with distrib partners to resolve their “legitimate business concerns…outside of the legislative process.”  IBA prexy Marc Carmichael told Express that chairman has deadline of mid-Mar for legislation and “he already had an alcohol bill identified coming over from the House in which to place an amendment.  I am working with the Chairman on an amendment.”  Not much from original bill (see Jan 20 Express) remains under consideration: controversial pricing, brand extension, approval issues all put aside.  But Marc still pursuing definition of “good cause” to terminate, oppy to cure and provision that distribs can’t waive away rights under state law via signing distrib agreement.      

This is 3d AB deal announced this mo, tho each goes back a ways (Portland, Oreg and Amsterdam, NY were the others). Earlier this week longtime distrib Marc Winner signed Sales Agreement to sell his 4-mil-case AB house in Baltimore to the Mitchell family of Mitchell Dist in Meridian, Miss. Winner Dist on the market for well over a yr and rumblings of this particular deal had first surfaced many mos ago. Deal expected to close in 30 to 60 days, pending supplier approvals. So presuming AB approves Mitchell, Baltimore will be yet another Eastern seabord city where AB distrib sells to out-of-state Southern distrib from high share mkt, just like in Charlotte and Charleston (in Charlotte Clay Adams came up from Alabama and in Charleston, Will Dorminy came across from Ga). Those 2 bigger deals were reportedly for high multiples, and subsequently AB sales declined in those mkts, putting pressure on the deals. Baltimore also a tuff mkt for AB, with high union costs, much lower than natl share. Price for Winner unknown at presstime. Mitchell Dist about 6 mil cases in home state where AB had its highest share, 69 in 2012. Baltimore likely only about half that, so a completely different challenge. But there’s additional component to this transaction that’s interesting. Marc will also sell a minority stake in his other 4-mil case distribution co, statewide FP Winner (an all others distrib) with an option for Mitchell to buy in 4-5 yrs when Marc ready to retire. The Mitchells will be involved in FP Winner, but AB will be their primary focus.

The 2014 Beer INSIGHTS Spring Conference at the Ritz Carlton in Chicago June 9-10 will once again focus on the dynamic and growing high-end of the US beer biz. Just added: Boston Beer chairman Jim Koch. He will be part of a unique discussion with Crown ceo Bill Hackett, the longtime leaders of the 2 cos that had the best overall growth in 2013. It will be moderated by Benj Steinman. Also joining us, MC’s innovations veep David Kroll, a very busy man in 2014 with upcoming Miller Fortune launch, Smith & Forge and more. This yr’s conference also features the return of consultant Mike Mazzoni, one of the beer industry’s most thought-provoking speakers. And our program will also include a q&a with the hottest of craft brewers, Lagunitas founder Tony Magee, on the verge of opening his 2d brewery in Chicago. Reserve your seats early as seating is limited and the last 2 conferences were completely sold out. Join us for what’s sure to be a jampacked day. For more info, click here. To register,click here.
BMI’s biggest football fan, David Steinman, posted fun blog entry on some of the different twists in beer and football news in days and weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. Click here to check it out.

Turns out that AB veep David Almeida did not say negotiations with Teamsters are “tense” and “noisy.”  He said they are “probably going to be tense” and “probably going to be noisy.”  That’s future tense and “probably,” not present tense.  Indeed, they have not been tense so far, according to well-informed source.  

Beer execs mostly focused on loss of drinking occasions to liquor in recent yrs. But wine growth has been just as solid, and it’s been grabbing share from beer too.  While Impact Databank reported wine shipments up just 1.5% in 2013, as we reported a few issues back, another wine mkt watcher, Gomberg Frederickson & Associates, pegged growth at +2.7%.  (This isn’t first time in recent yrs when different sources measured wine biz differently; we wonder whether growing direct shipment of wine to consumers makes those numbers tuffer to track.)  We’ll let the wine experts sort out the numbers.  Key is that wine biz healthier than beer right now in US and given smaller base and tailwinds (popularity among different demos, better health associations than beer or spirits, etc) future seems pretty bright for wine.

But that doesn’t mean wine watchers not concerned.  At two recent mtgs, experts warned of some coming bumps in road.  Wine Enthusiast reported theme of Wine Mkt Council mtg as “forecast is sunny, but be wary of clouds.” Still, article focused only on bright side, including wine’s broad multi-cultural appeal, strength among women and increasing availability.  But at Unified Wine and Grape Symposium, Gomberg’s Jon Fredrickson said 2013 “wasn’t a great year for wine overall, but it was a growth year” and voiced some challenges wine now facing. Some will sound familiar to beer execs.  Citing dropoff in sales of lower-priced wines and slowing of recently hot Moscato style, Jon wondered: “Where did these people go?  Did they go to flavored cocktails?” 

Vintners need to innovate more, he said and pointed out craft brewers and cider makers are luring wine drinkers.  “The glamour of wine is rubbing off on others, so now we have beer sommeliers….  Where are they getting these ideas from?”  In addition to more retail outlets, direct shipping of wine continues to outpace overall growth, Jon pointed out, and lotsa wine clubs from different orgs and publications are driving lotsa competition on that front.  Finally, as Rob Sands pointed out at Beer Insights Seminar a coupla yrs back, “skumageddon” in wine even more developed than in beer.  TTB approved “roughly 100,000 new [wine] labels last year,” reported Press Democrat in Santa Rosa.  And imports are stronger competition in wine than beer right now.  Indeed, French vintners added more labels in US than Calif vintners did last yr. What to make of it all for beer?  That much more competition for adults’ drinking pleasure.  

If they still played the Bud Bowl, Bud Light would be down 2 touchdowns at end of 1st qtr right now.  While Bud Light teaser spots with Arnold Schwarzenegger didn’t catch fire, once again the Clydesdales have come thru for Bud.  This yr’s spot with that beautiful puppy went viral fast and garnered tons of praise.  It’s nearing 13 mil views on YouTube in a day.  Bud “wins our hearts again,” gushed Huff Post; while Adweek deemed it a “worthy sequel” to last yr’s “Brotherhood” spot, that is “destined for great things,” and “will surely be among the top five best-liked spots,” on Sunday.  

While Bud seemingly scores big time again, AB “will spend an unconscionable $28 million on Super Bowl ads to unveil the latest and utterly forgettable tagline for Bud Light,” lamented Joe Sixpack.  Joe praises early slogans for #1 brand, but he believes “Bud Light’s taglines haven’t zinged for at least a decade,” and wonders is “The Perfect Beer for Whatever Happens… “really the best you could do, St. Louis?” 

Meanwhile, Newcastle’s “tongue-in-cheek” spoof ad mocking the whole hysteria of Super Bowl advertising is getting lots of attention online as well with well over 1 mil views online, per Viral Viral Videos.  Newcastle spent an estimated $1 mil on campaign according to Ad Age.  Brand Dir Quinn Killbury said online ad isn’t meant to be a shot at AB but to spoof on “over the top” Super Bowl mktg in general. “We’re not saying that’s a bad thing. We are just saying that’s kind of funny,” said Quinn.    

Preliminary data from Lester Jones at Beer Inst likely to be tweaked as more number come in, but total of state shipments thru Dec 2013 showing same -1.3% to -1.4% trend that current taxpaids + imports measure suggests.  Lester’s estimates so far show only 4 states up 0.2% or more last yr: Calif (+0.4%), Wash (+0.9%) Me (+1.4%) and Vt (+0.8%) and latter 2 are tiny mkts.  Even Calif gain not quite 100K bbls. Among biggest beer mkts, Fla is only other gainer, a measly 0.1%.  But trends worse to much worse elsewhere: Tex (-1.8%), NY (-0.9%), Ill (-1.6%), Pennsy (-2.6%, ouch); Oh (-1.2%), Ga (-1.8%), Mich (-0.8%); NC (-1.2%) and Va (-2.4%).