Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

In an ever changing beer world, "the most successful distributors will be the ones who continue adapting to the changing environment and optimize their portfolio of national, regional and local independent American craft brewers," the Brewers Assn wrote in an article posted to its site's "News" section this week. The article cites comments from distributors and input from brewery owners to provide guidance to wholesalers for managing craft portfolios. Part of that effective management includes dropping underperforming brands or those with expectations that "no longer align." And part of that will be franchise reform, as the BA lays out in the article's final section: "Let Our People Go." Holding onto a brand looking to move "benefits no one and threatens the long term viability" of entire craft segment, the article argues. That's after reminding that "small brewer carve-outs" are passing in state houses with greater frequency, so "the best distributors in each market stand to benefit by offering a new distribution option to dissatisfied craft brewers." The country's small brewers ain't gonna stop innovating anytime soon (and the largest brewers ain't either, we'd note), creating a constantly evolving environment that "requires continuous evolution of retailer and distributor strategy." Distribs that stick to the same-old same-old won't cut it, the article implies, while winning wholesalers will evolve with industry.

Leading up to this final section, the article has plenty of other sound suggestions for managing a craft portfolio. Among the "countless topics to consider when analyzing brewery partners," the BA suggests close looks at a brand's recognizability and story, the brewery's priorities ("flagship or wide portfolio approach") and investments in selling its brands in local mkts and national chains, plus its "strength in home market" and "social media plan." Don't forget to consider long-term "commitment to quality" including, "where legal," helping pay for "getting old beer out of market." Potential brewery partners should also have clear plans for how to expand its capacity and brewing operations and its long-term ownership structure.

We've heard lots about the increasing frequency (and size) of mkting agreements distribs are making when acquiring new craft brands. Interestingly, this article flips that around, insisting that "distributors should hold brewers accountable for effectively investing in and managing their business." Indeed, one distributor told the authors that craft brands "all have a chance to succeed, but the level of success depends on resources and spending behind the brand." Success "depends on the market. Not all brands work in all markets," one distrib owner said and "there is not enough space in the world for all brewers to achieve their distribution goals," the article says. Further "it sometimes feels as if there are more brands today than there are consumers to drink them," a distrib told the BA. When taking on a new brand, wholesalers must understand "what niche or void" it will fill. The article also encourages distribs to pick the right person to lead a craft portfolio depending on that distrib's overall craft strategy: "passionate craft beer enthusiasts" do well when focusing on craft-heavy accounts; managers with "extensive sales knowledge" work well elsewhere. Before invoking a 2013 memo from Bump Williams citing "lots of dead packages" and encouraging better management of real estate, the article argues that "it is more important than ever to maintain focus on the flagship and leading brands of top craft brewers." The "new, exciting entries," should then complement that focus.  
AB's focus for now with Blue Point will "remain on building a stronghold in the northeast," veep Andy Goeler, who runs the Goose Island biz, told CBN yesterday. There's "no specific plan to roll out to new territories" or go national, he added. Tho Andy expects calls from AB distribs seeking to add brand, any expansion not likely to happen as quickly as it did with Goose. Part of reason for fast Goose rollout, Andy reminded, was "need" in AB distrib system to have craft brands to compete better. In any case, "as we get to know Blue Point better, that's when opportunities will arise." Andy confirmed that majority of Blue Point volume already with AB distribs and where it's not, "we are encouraging our distributors to purchase the rights." Why Blue Point, why now? Northeast is "great area to have a deeper presence," Andy said, to compliment AB's natl footprint. Then too, Blue Point's "passionate beer culture reminded us of Goose Island." Third factor was Blue Point's need to expand. "They are capacity constrained beyond belief. You can't fit another chair" at Long Island plant, said Andy. And AB sees lotsa oppy to build out tasting room in Patchogue.

AB resources provided "great option" for Blue Point founders Mark Burford and Pete Cotter to expand capacity. Some brewers more comfortable with varying levels of debt, Andy pointed out. Mark and Pete also "had time to look at what we've done with Goose Island. They liked our approach, which is to let them do more of what they are doing." Since AB shifted production of Goose flagships to its own breweries, it freed up Goose brewers to innovate and they are now making "more small-batch, experimental brands than ever." Will Blue Point be made in AB breweries, especially since some of its volume now contract-brewed? Again, "no specific plans" to shift production right now, said Andy, tho "if the day comes when we need to brew it [at AB breweries], we'll absolutely help them. We'll see how they grow."

As when AB bought Goose Island, backlash from beer geeks popped immediately after announcement. Blue Point website shut down briefly from overload. Andy's response to such backlash: "I love and appreciate that people are so passionate about the beer that they take time to write in their opinions." Tho he gets "concerned" when any beer gets bashed, "we expect it" and respect the passion behind the comments. "We learned at Goose that the only way to counter" such criticism "is to over time, show them that we respect the beer so much that we're not going in to cut costs, cheapen the beer or the packaging, but to provide a vehicle to do more." AB's challenge is to ensure that "a year from now people will be saying 'Wow, Blue Point is doing this and this and this and look at what AB helped Blue Point do.'"

Are there more craft deals in AB's future? "We've got our hands full with two great brewers. I want to focus on that the best we can," Andy responded.  
With the way 21st Amendment Brewing has been growing in last few yrs - finishing 2013 at over 56K bbls, +30%, it's over 30x its 2008 volume - the co is running out of room to grow with current production partner. 21A has been one of most successful craft companies in recent years to brew the vast majority of its beer at another brewery's facility. It's worked with Cold Spring in Minn since early 2008, when it wasn't in the cards for the San Francisco brewpub to build its own Bay Area facility. The co "focused our time on building our relationship with Cold Spring" to form a "true partnership to make better beer," 21A co-founder Nico Freccia told CBN. "We think we can squeeze out 70K bbls" at Cold Spring, Nico said, so "if we hit 25%" growth this yr, "there's no more room after that." He, co-founder Shaun O'Sullivan and team have "always wanted to build a larger production brewery here at home in the Bay Area," Nico added, and recall Shaun shared at last yr's CBC that the co had started looking for space for such a facility. Stay tuned. On current contract landscape, Nico's seeing "still this mad dash to get in," with some players "totally oversubscribed." He's hearing "rumblings," some "backlash" against contract brewing still, along with more folks asking "what does 'local' mean?"

About a third of 21st Amendment's volume is in Brew Free or Die IPA, the co's #1 brand, up over 30% in 2013. "Literally on its heels," Nico said, and growing faster is 6-month-seasonal Hell or High Watermelon, about 28% of volume and up 48% last year. Two other yr-round beers, Back in Black (a black IPA) and Bitter American (an American take on classic low-abv British bitter style) make up another 16% and 10% of 21A's volume. The rest is in a pair of other shorter-release seasonals and the co's Insurrection Series: "really small volume, all allocated, meant to be in and out of the market in a very short time," Nico said. Often experimental and/or collaborative, like most-recent entry, pair of He Said pumpkin beers brewed with Elysian's Dick Cantwell, these high-margin brands are also "what keeps it fun." The brewer's canned offerings do quite well, just "20% of total shipments were draft" last yr, according to Nico. He recognizes that "we need to get that number up" to add "more sampling opportunities." But in "every market, it's getting harder to do that" with all the new draft-only breweries working to get handles.

Fifteen states and DC, mostly in the Northwest and Northeast, see 21st Amendment beers, but the "Bay Area is by far our biggest market," Nico said. NorCal buys about 36% of 21A's volume. The rest of the NW is only another 13% of sales, so 21A's east and west biz is "pretty evenly split," both at 49% (about 2% lands in the Twin Cities). While split over more mkts, the co's East Coast sales are posting the fastest gains, Pennsy at about 9% of 2013 volume and +37%. 21A has a particular focus in metropolitan areas tho so Philly alone up 70%. DC and NYC were 7% of volume each last yr, and growth in "Manhattan was huge," Nico said, +36%, "especially for draft beer." Nico finds the East Coast in general doesn't have "that fierce sense of territorial locality" that folks in the PacNW, particularly Oreg have. He thinks that's one of the reasons 21A sales have "slowed quite a bit" in those NW mkts. The co hasn't launched many new states recently, mostly just filling in gaps, like moving further into central Calif. That'll continue in 2014 when 21A "will do some more fleshing out of territory" and "fill some holes for chains," likely headed to the rest of NY state, out of the city and "maybe New England," Nico said, especially places the co passes on its way to Boston.

Nico and team works with the Global Brewers Guild (a group of salespeople that sell a portfolio of craft brands in many eastern mkts) to help "put bodies on the ground before we even enter a market." But the co also amped up its efforts nearer home last yr and now has a dedicated salesperson in Seattle and Portland, as well as a Calif sales director, and 3 folks in NorCal: one each focused on SF, East Bay and Sacramento. Recall, they also brought on Ted Whitney to guide the sales team late last yr. "Our biggest business in Northern California is in Safeway," Nico told us, where most stores carry "at least 3 of the SKUs." Nico's noticed that chain in particular adding more space for the category by "putting floor-stacks of beer everywhere," including "a lot of floor-stacks for Watermelon in the produce section in the summer." Some premium Safeways have started "labelling the beer aisle: import, domestic, local, craft," and "they don't seem to be afraid now to take the Natural Light 18-pack out" to make more room for craft. Up in local-heavy Seattle and Portland it's "a lot easier to get kicked out of sets," so breweries have to "work a lot harder to stay in front of buyers." Breweries "can't just throw beer out there and hope it's gonna stick," Nico said, "you've gotta back it; you've gotta support it."

21st Amendment Brewpub; SF Shifts Nico and Shaun founded 21st Amendment in 2000 as a brewpub in a once "rather desolate neighborhood" that since 2004 has "grown and grown and grown." With tech companies and venture capital moving in, an "infrastructure, neighborhood and a whole new economy has grown up around us," Nico said. That's changed the pub's business from largely seasonal (winter used to come with a 20-30% sales dip) to much more even. The "beer just turns and burns" in the summer still, but the pub's now a "well-oiled machine." It turned out about 815 bbls in 2013, exact same as in 2012; the 12-bbl system could probably produce 1000 bbls if necessary, Nico estimates. Almost all of that beer is sold over the bar, with only a couple of specialty kegs sneaking out to other Bay Area spots. Most of the time 3 or 4 of the co's primary beers from Cold Spring are on tap along with 8 or more from the pub. Nico's also noticed some big changes in the SF brewery landscape. Tho SF has been known as a great beer town for yrs, the number of breweries in town, "until recently, has always hovered around 8 or 9," mostly brewpubs that "all opened within 2 years of each other." But "recently we've had a lot more activity," with plenty more facilities opening in the area. Besides the new Magnolia brewery (see our Jan 14 issue), Pine Street and Triple Voodoo (currently contracting but about to open a facility, according to Nico) are new to town, plus addition of Cellarmaker and more MateVeza outlets, both outfits profiled below.  
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In case you lost track of all the new markets craft brewers launched in the last month, we've put 'em all together for you in one handy pdf. Organized by state, this list includes craft brewer distribution expansions with sales expected to begin by the end of January, 2014. It does not include future expansions already announced. While it may not be comprehensive, this list includes announcements made by the largest craft brewers and many expansions by smaller players. Notable expansions and additional insights will continue to appear in issues of Craft Brew News.  
Brewers in 3 more states are working to increase beer's access to market to be on parity with wine. In Tenn, the state's brewers guild has organized rallies in Nashville in support of work to allow "high-gravity" beer (over 5% alc-by-weight or just over 6% ABV) in grocery stores, according to Nashville Scene. Brewers hope to achieve that right in one of two ways: 1) add "high-gravity beer" to current House bills that propose allowing wine sales at groceries, or 2) intro a new bill to change the state's definition of beer. An op-ed this week in the Chattanoogan pushes the former, likely easier-to-attain agenda. Recall, folks in Tenn have already spoken up about hoping to change the tax on "high-gravity beer," currently only sold in liquor stores and taxed at the same rate as liquor. Producing and selling "high-gravity beer" requires extra licensing, which wouldn't be required if the latter agenda progresses, according to Maryville's Daily Times.

Up in Minn, a rep for Kinney Creek Brewery posed that "Wineries can sell on Sunday, so why not craft breweries?" in the Post Bulletin op-ed. "It's time to legalize Sunday Sales in Minnesota," across the board, the op-ed argues, claiming broad support including from the governor. State wineries are currently allowed to conduct direct sales on Sundays. Meanwhile, some Miss brewers want the right to sell direct-to-consumers for off-premise consumption, according to a widely re-printed AP article, including by Businessweek and USA Today. Brewers and distribs (who unsurprisingly oppose any change) testified before a House subcommittee last week, with a draft of a bill already in the works, according to the Clarion-Ledger.  
New Mexico has almost 40 breweries now, which collectively produce just 60K bbls, according to a deep-dive from Albuquerque Business First. But craft sales were up 30% at Admiral Bev (a multi-state Pepsi bottler and MC wholesaler), craft brand mgr Kevin Lente told the paper, while overall beer sales fell 4%. Craft share in the state jumped from 3 to 8 in 2013, the paper notes, citing Kevin going "out on a limb" that that'll double next yr and that "we're going to be at 25 percent in the next four to five years." The paper checked in with Chris Swezy of National Distributing too (largely wine and spirits house with some craft brands, connected to operation in Ga and also RNDC in Mich, which recently formed JV with separate National wine/spirits distrib there). Chris shared that National sold 24K cases of Marble Brewing brands last yr, double its 2012 volume, and 8K cases of smaller La Cumbre, 16x prior yr sales. That's over 10% of 5000 bbls La Cumbre produced last yr, headed toward 7500 in 2014. Marble hopes to get to 17K bbls by yr-end and largest state brewer, Santa Fe Brewing, could get to 20K bbls and is expecting 25-30% growth for next 3 yrs, ABF wrote. Recall Santa Fe recently announced purchase of 3+ acres of adjacent land to expand its brewery, looking at jacking capacity up from current 30K bbls to 200K. Key to all this growth in NM was change in excise tax for small brewers, passed last yr. State small brewer bbl-cap tripled last yr from 5000 to 15K bbls, keeping tax at 8 cents/gal up to 10K bbls, then 28 cents/gal up to 14,999. Everything over 15K bbls taxed at 41 cents/gal, previous rate for everything over 5000 bbls.  
Mississipi's Lazy Magnolia Brewing finished yr right around 15K bbls, co told CBN. That's up just slightly from their approx 14K bbl output in 2012. However, co plans to finish a 16.5K sq-ft expansion of their brewery by early March 2014, CBN is told. Early reports pegged capacity after the expansion around 50K bbls. That, no doubt is part of the reason Lazy Magnolia plans to enter 10 new territories in 2014, starting with Kentucky just this past week, co announced. They partnered with Clark, River City, and Stagnaro Distributing, each part of the MC network in Ky. Next Lazy Magnolia plans to open in OH, Mo, and Indianapolis Ind in March, followed by NC, Va, WVa, DC, and Chicago later in the yr.  
Demand for Goose Island's Bourbon County brand barrel-aged stouts is still sky-high, years after its ownership structure became yesterday's news. So now the co has signed a 5-yr lease for a 130 sq-ft warehouse a mile from its Chicago brewery, purely to house barrels for its growing barrel-aged beer program, according to Chicago Business. That's about 4x the size of its existing warehouse space, but "the sad part is, that's still not going to meet demand," because "maybe this will add 15% to 20% more beer," ceo Andy Goeler told the paper. The co continues to increase capacity at its primary facility too, more signs that folks at ABI have no problem continuing its "rich uncle" role, allowing Goose Island to invest heavily in its highest-end brands.  
Analyzing share and growth rates based on our data on top 30 craft brewers from last week, Consumer Edge's Brett Cooper said: "There seems to be no material slowdown in the new guy getting an opportunity in the market as the consumer is voting with their wallet that they want to try something new or different." Even with "all the talk of SKU rationalization and retailers cutting down on space allocated to the new guy," said Brett, craft "continued to fragment in 2013." First of all, top 10 craft brewers lost 180bps (almost 2 points) share of craft segment in 2013 (based on shipments). Only 2 of top 10 brewers - Lagunitas and Brooklyn - gained share for yr, noted Consumer Edge, using BMI data.

In last 5 yrs, "the top 10 craft brewers have lost 12 points" of craft share, Consumer Edge added. While top 30 brewers lost combined 1.9 share, "it implies that the other thousand+ [packaging] brewers picked up the share that the larger craft brewers lost." Brett groups craft brewers by rank to dissect trends in volume and share. Boston craft volume up 8%, roughly same as brewers #2-6 in aggregate (including everything from rapid growth Lagunitas to slower Sierra and NBB); craft brewers #7-11 up 8.8%, #s 12-16 up 7%. But brewers #17-21 and #22-26 up 15%. All others up estimated 19%. Recall, only 2 of top 30 (Magic Hat/Pyramid and Rogue) volume declined in 2013 (see our Jan 24 issue). So there still appears to be room for both big and little craft cos to grow for now. Meanwhile, craft segment likely saw highest % gain of total beer share in its history, Consumer Edge estimates using BMI data. Craft share of total beer up estimated 1% to 7.6. In 95 and 96, craft share grew 0.7% and 0.8% respectively, and in 2011 share grew 0.9%.