Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Tho Boston Beer had already guided to mid-teen depletions growth in 2014, Compensation Committee of the Board added detail and specific numbers at recent mtg laying out bonus oppys of top execs. These goals show Boston looks for even bigger growth as objective, over a half mil bbls incremental in 2014. Its execs have opportunity to get big bonuses based on achieving these "company-wide goals." Goals are depletions increase of at least 18% and at least $7.5 mil in "resource efficiencies and cost savings, while maintaining brand health." If goals only "partially achieved," i.e. depletions +14%, Sam Adams brand +3%, top execs will get 50% of payments. On top of that, sales veep John Geist has some very specific brand sales goals (see details below).

Boston bonuses calculated as % of base salary. Chairman Jim could get bonus of 100% of base salary. Over half of bonus weighted to depletions growth trend/Boston's performance vs craft category. Another 20% weighted to gross profit/margin goals and 10% each to freshness goals, and time Jim invests in "craft industry initiatives which support the category and the Company." (Base salary data for 2013/2014 not available, but Jim's salary was $390K in 2012, up 2%).

For CEO Martin Roper, about 1/3 of 2014 bonus oppy - he could get 80% of 2014 base salary - based on depletions. A quarter of Martin's bonus weighted to gross profits/margin, another quarter to "significant reduction in 'out of stock' and improvement in service," along with "capacity and capability" to meet projected growth. The rest depends on cost savings/Freshest Beer Program. Boston hopes to have 75% of volume in program by end of year, up from about 2/3 at end of Q3 this yr. On top of this, Martin has "stretch" bonus oppy, up to another 80% of regular bonus or "an incremental 64% of his base salary," if depletions growth gets into the low 20% range, combined with improved services, inventory reduction, efficiencies. (Martin's salary in 2012 was $714.5K, also +2%.)

Depletions goals for sales veep John Geist to score bonus of 50% of 2014 base salary (John's salary was $355K in 2012) based on more detailed depletions trends. Thirty % of bonus based on the shared company goals noted above. Another 5-10% each based on Sam Adams depletions (+9%), Twisted Tea (+17%), Angry Orchard (+50%) and total depletions including Alchemy & Science projects of +18%. John also incented on "price adjustments of greater than 2%," draft handles, Seasonal distribution, "display execution during key holiday periods," sampling of drinkers and improving "departmental or functional talent bench strength." Bonus for CFO Bill Urich, 50% of base salary, stretches across company-wide goals as well as efficiencies, procurement, support for A&S initiatives, organizational development and IT. And operations veep Thomas Lance can score bonus of 50% of base salary based on company goals, safety, quality, supply chain, capacity expansion, cost savings and "organizational development."

Separately, Boston plans to add capacity and people at Pennsy brewery in 2014, reports Lehigh Valley Live, tho no official expansion plan submitted to local govt officials yet. That includes fermentation tanks, spokesperson told paper, "to keep up with the brewing demands as we introduce new innovative styles like our Barrel Room collection." Boston's website lists 22 job openings at Pennsy plant and co added 70 positions there in 2013.  
Actually it's a 14 passenger van that takes its passengers on "roughly four-hour excursions," making "four or five stops for private tours and tastings," reported Boston Globe. Greta sticks to nano-breweries and small brewpubs alike. The largest brewery on the tour list is Throwback Brewery which produced 352 bbls of beer in 2012, according to Brewers Association data. Other stops include Earth Eagle Brewing, "a nanobrewery hitched to a homebrew supply shop," in downtown Portsmouth, Blue Lobster Brewing Co, Sea Hagg distillery, and couple of pubs and beer-centric food stops. So Greta's bus really concentrates on some of smallest players in attempting to create a memorable tour experience.  
Cider shipments up 40%, another 25,000 bbls to 88,000 bbls in September. That's a fair amount slower than in many recent mos. Marked the first time monthly ciders shipments below 100k bbls since March, and lowest % growth of 2013. Yet cider still up 79%, 365,000 bbls to 848,000 bbls YTD thru September. Import ciders dropped 16% in 3d qtr and fell to 10 share for the qtr. Still up 14% yr-to-date and got 13 share, down from 20 last yr. Domestic ciders up 91% for 9 mos. Typically Q4 has represented largest shipment mos for cider, so stay tuned to see how 2013 stacks up.  

Russian River's once a year release of its sour beer, Beatification, drew literally "hundreds of fans" standing in line for hours this past Saturday morning to sample the limited release brew, reported the Press Democrat. Starting in the middle of the night. The first people in line were there by 1:30 AM Saturday, according to brewery co-owner Natalie Cilurzo. "It's probably one of the top three sours in the world," one fan told paper. Already by 4:00 PM Saturday, 800 of the 1200 cases of Beatification made were sold, Natalie noted.  

Russian River's once a year release of its sour beer, Beatification, drew literally "hundreds of fans" standing in line for hours this past Saturday morning to sample the limited release brew, reported the Press Democrat. Starting in the middle of the night. The first people in line were there by 1:30 AM Saturday, according to brewery co-owner Natalie Cilurzo. "It's probably one of the top three sours in the world," one fan told paper. Already by 4:00 PM Saturday, 800 of the 1200 cases of Beatification made were sold, Natalie noted.  

In shift of typical discussion over excise tax bills, and seemingly in response to NY Post editorial and other sources claiming Small BREW picks winners while BEER assists all brewers, Brewers Assn staff economist Bart Watson laid out "accumulated" and "distribution of benefits" of both bills in "A Tale of Two Tax Bills" to BA blog last week. Besides BEER being "25 times more costly than" Small BREW, to the federal government that is, "85% of the benefits," to brewers that is, "accrue to the two-largest firms." So by this cut, the BA seems to be working to poke holes in repeated Beer Institute argument that BEER does not ask legislators to "pick winners and losers." If winners must be picked then, Bart asks "in an era of fiscal austerity and slow job growth, which one makes more sense?"  

Craft brewers collectively provided $33.9 bil in economic impact to US economy in 2012 thru estimated 360K jobs (direct and indirect), according to latest release from Brewers Assn, including over 108,000 jobs directly at brewers and brewpubs. Analysis by staff economist Bart Watson identified 2012 output and impact per 21+ adult ("per capita") for all 50 states and DC. Results are based on data received via BA's annual production and best-practices surveys of members filtered thru IMPLAN software to identify economic output.

Calif's $4.7 bil in 2012 output was more than twice $2.3 bil in Tex, which was followed closely by NY ($2.2 bil), Pennsy ($2.0 bil) and Colo ($1.6 bil). But Oreg comes out on top when analyzing breweries' output per 21+ adult. Oreg breweries provided an average of almost $449 per capita in 2012, more than 3x the national average of $149.46. Colo and Vermont were only two other states with per capita outputs over $400, while Maine and Mont were only other two over $300. Calif's big output divvies up to above-average $173 per 21+ adult, while Tex's per capita output is below average at about $129. Alaska, Del, Wyo and NH breweries all create output well above average.

Southeast continues to lag in this measurement: SC, Miss, Alabama and Fla created less than half the natl average output per capita. Fla's output only at $60 per 21+ adult. Average wages per state (including brewpub servers and staff) vary widely, according to the study, from almost $53K in DC to less than $27K in Mont.  

Craft brewers collectively provided $33.9 bil in economic impact to US economy in 2012 thru estimated 360K jobs (direct and indirect), according to latest release from Brewers Assn, including over 108,000 jobs directly at brewers and brewpubs. Analysis by staff economist Bart Watson identified 2012 output and impact per 21+ adult ("per capita") for all 50 states and DC. Results are based on data received via BA's annual production and best-practices surveys of members filtered thru IMPLAN software to identify economic output.

Calif's $4.7 bil in 2012 output was more than twice $2.3 bil in Tex, which was followed closely by NY ($2.2 bil), Pennsy ($2.0 bil) and Colo ($1.6 bil). But Oreg comes out on top when analyzing breweries' output per 21+ adult. Oreg breweries provided an average of almost $449 per capita in 2012, more than 3x the national average of $149.46. Colo and Vermont were only two other states with per capita outputs over $400, while Maine and Mont were only other two over $300. Calif's big output divvies up to above-average $173 per 21+ adult, while Tex's per capita output is below average at about $129. Alaska, Del, Wyo and NH breweries all create output well above average.

Southeast continues to lag in this measurement: SC, Miss, Alabama and Fla created less than half the natl average output per capita. Fla's output only at $60 per 21+ adult. Average wages per state (including brewpub servers and staff) vary widely, according to the study, from almost $53K in DC to less than $27K in Mont.  

A different sort of revolutionary inspired Boston Beer for imagery of new Rebel IPA, a departure for the company from both a packaging and flavor standpoint. The "splashy red and white design" for its 6-packs, as described by Boston Biz Journal, breaks free of traditional Samuel Adams imagery, seemingly inspired more by punk and graffiti artists. Bartenders in Boston and few other markets currently pull the brand from spray paint can-shaped tap handles that reference the splotches and splashes on packaging.

Many more beer drinkers will see the bright red handle in Jan, when the brand goes nationwide on draft, according to the article. Packaged product is due in Feb. Described as a "West Coast IPA," Rebel represents Sam Adams biggest and boldest play in a style that continues to drive much of craft's growth. IPAs represented over 18.5 share of $$ yr-to-date in latest IRI multi-outlet + convenience thru Dec 1, + 44.1% and close to $100 mil. That was about 35% of the segment's growth overall and almost 12% of total beer $$ growth YTD.

Recall, Boston chairman Jim Koch has repeatedly reminded of his insistence on balance when it comes to flavor. As such, Rebel "goes down much smoother than a typical IPA, without the bitterness that is the style's trademark," per Boston Biz Journal. The brand also gives Boston a chance to remind drinkers of its "nanobrewery" at its Jamaica Plains plant, essentially a pilot system where Rebel was born. Boston Beer also expands Anytime IPA (Just IPA re-named, see Nov 21 issue) in a bigger way next yr thru its Alchemy & Science division. But Rebel, part of Boston's core Sam Adams business, is likely to get priority in increasingly competitive segment.  

More good news for Lagunitas; its Little Sumpin' Sumpin' jumped Redhook ESB and Deschutes Inversion IPA to reach top 30 craft brands in IRI multi-outlet + convenience thru 12/1. At #29, Little Sumpin' $$ sales up a stunning 181%, volume up 179% yr-to-date thru 12/1. The brand has slowed down a bit (if you can call it that) in last 13 weeks to $$ up 132%, volume up 128%. Lagunitas IPA still churnin' away. Volume and $$ up 71% ytd, and $$ up 77%, volume up 74% in latest 13 weeks. The two brands combined have just under 2 share of total craft $$, and together grabbed additional 0.73 share YTD. Total co is up 86% YTD in IRI.

Then too, winter seasonals seem to be kickin' into gear in recent weeks for big 3 - Sam, Sierra, and New Belgium. Sam Seasonal $$ up 19% in 4 weeks, up 13% YTD, and both Sierra (+13%) and NBB (+12%) seasonals are up low double digits in 4 weeks thru 12/1, compared to flat for the yr. Total craft seasonal $$ up 18.6% in latest 4 weeks, up 15% YTD.