Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Lotsa trademark tiffs out there in craft land, given challenge of coming up with new names/themes.  But here’s a twist.  Montana’s Big Sky Brewing Co sued AB in fed ct over widely publicized new videos for Bud Light by actor John Krasinski using theme “hold my beer and watch this.”  Three videos have been on YouTube for weeks and garnered plenty of press and plays (see Dec 2 Express).  Turns out Big Sky has been using same phrase since “at least as early as February 24, 2004,” on packaging, promos, ads, glassware, events, you name it.  What’s more, Big Sky got trademark registration for phrase in 2009.  After 3 videos hit YouTube Dec 1, Big Sky sent AB a cease and desist letter on Dec 9, explaining how it has used phrase and has trademark, claiming that AB’s use of it is “likely to cause confusion” among consumers.  Demanded AB “immediately” stop using it and remove videos from YouTube.  It hoped to avoid lawsuit, atty wrote, and sought “mutually satisfactory resolution.”  On Dec 20, Big Sky filed lawsuit claiming trademark infringement and irreparable harm, seeking injunction and monetary damages.   (This article originally appeared in our Craft Brew News publication on Dec 24.)  

ABI struck global deal with “dance-focused new company” called SFX Entertainment that puts on electronic dance music festivals, reported NY Times.  The deal could be worth $25 mil in 2014 and $35 mil in 2015 as “SFX’s events grow,” wrote NYT, citing Stifel Nicolaus’s Canadian analyst Benjamin Mogil.  SFX is a public company founded by media mogul Robert F.X. Sillerman.  Traditionally, “mainstream sponsors have been tentative about supporting dance events,” noted NY Times, “which have never shaken a long association with mass drug use.”  But in recent mos, Motorola struck deal with Live Nation Entertainment, world’s largest concert promoter.  And now this deal between ABI and SFX.  SFX just went public in Oct.  

For 4 weeks thru Dec 14, beer volume dropped 1.3% in Nielsen all outlet + convenience data.  But $$ were up 1.8% as avg prices up 67 cents, 3.2% per case to $21.58.   Most of that is trading up.  Indeed, above premium volume up 10% for last 4 weeks. And all above premium segments gained 3.6 share of $$ to 36.6.  Led by FMBs up 38% and 1.8 share of $$ and craft up 18% and 1.4 share of $$.  In supers, hi-end’s most developed channel, above premium beers at fully 50 share.  And still growing double digits.  Meanwhile, back to all channel data: premium beers and below premium beers each declined by around 5% in volume.  Premium beers lost 2.4 share of $$ (premium lights down 1.9 share) and sub premium beers lost 1.2 share.  

While Pennsy privatization debate has died down, Oregonians for Competition (big grocers are main drivers) filed 5 petitions to privatize liquor in Oreg, AP reports, a move anticipated in wake of Wash going down that road.  OC org plans to pick one to turn into ballot initiative in 2014.  Each would allow current stores selling beer and wine which are over 10K sq-ft to add liquor.  Looks too like accommodations will be made for existing stores/ specialty shops.  But goal is to get liquor into big grocery, other chains, natch.  As elsewhere, state officials reluctant to relinquish revs and regulatory roles: “Personally I’m unwilling to throw the baby out with the bathwater,” chairman of Oreg Liq Control Comm told AP.

Even more skeptical: Oreg Beer & Wine Distrib Assn and small Oreg distillers.  Joint op-ed in Portland Tribune by Paul and Danelle Romain from distrib assn and Hood River Distillers’ Ron Dodge point to Wash experience to argue privatization would jump prices, lower state revs, reduce choice and hurt small in-state distillers.  They cite significantly higher prices for specific liquor brands in Wash vs Oreg, note liquor sales are 5th largest rev source for Oreg govt and point out lower taxes to achieve lower prices would reduce dollars for state programs.  Current consumer choice in Oreg unparalleled in US, they claim, since consumers can obtain “any distilled spirits product available in the US” while big box stores have “extremely limited choice.”  Privatization in Wash hurt small distillers, they add: Hood River sales dropped 50%, with “estimated losses around $4.5 mil.”  Big box stores seeking to sell high-volume brands “could knock Oregon producers off the shelves,” they warn.  Net-net: “don’t let out-of-state big box grocers sell you a bag of goods called privatization,” op-ed ends.  Finally, Oregonian reports recent poll that showed 48% of readers supported privatization, “about an equal number said not to privatize.”  Could shape up to be another expensive PR battle for various industry groups.         

After 35 yrs with AB, region 3 veep Dirk Danklef (Southeast) will be leaving AB, AB told distribs yesterday.  Dirk was a “key contributor to our integration and wholesaler panel initiatives,” wrote sales veep David Almeida.  He has been “the constant coach and mentor to many employees throughout his career.”  Replacing Dirk will be Sanjiv Chhatwal, most recently AB’s vp of trade marketing, who “led a transformational, new direction for the company’s retail strategy,” David said.  Sanjiv, who played a prominent role in AB sales conventions in recent yrs, will be relocating to Atlanta.  

Red-hot Lagunitas will come in at around 390-395,000 bbls in 2013, founder Tony Magee told INSIGHTS.  That’s slightly less than Lagunitas had expected earlier in the year, but still up by more than 150,000 bbls, about 2/3 bigger than 2012 and 4x the size of 2010.  Lagunitas still having trouble filling everyone’s orders. 

Early next year, its Chicago brewery will come on stream, with 300,000 bbls of capacity on day one, according to Tony, to go along with 500,000 bbls of capacity out of Petaluma.  While the opening is a bit of a moving target, Tony expects to be shipping from his Chicago facility by March.  Lagunitas will expand to all remaining states once its 2d brewery comes on stream.  It is budgeting for another 40% growth in 2014.

While beer shipments trend reverted to negative this yr, spirits slowed, especially in control states.  Raw data showed modest decline in Nov, but adjusted for same selling periods across states both yrs, volume +1.2%.  Still, for 12 mos control state volume up just 1.1%.  That’s compared to +4.2% for 12 mos thru Nov 12.  Would that beer sales had picked up in the wake of such a slowdown!  Meanwhile, perhaps one cause for slower spirits volume, pricing stronger for spirits this yr.  For both Nov and 12 mos, spirits dollar sales +4% in control states, reports NABCA.  Control states are about ¼ of overall spirits volume. 

Spirits biz actually down 2.5% on-premise thru Nov, according to latest GuestMetrics data, which also pointed to increasing bright spot in spirits world: craft spirits. Craft spirits are up 26% per GuestMetrics, led by Tito’s, which is up 66%, while mainstream brands down 3.5%.  Craft spirits up to almost 4 share on-premise in latest qtr (3.7%) compared to just 2.5% last yr.  

Taxpaid shipments by domestic brewers down another 50,000 bbls, 0.4% in Nov, estimates Lester Jones at Beer Inst.  So last 3 mos still in the black, +200K bbls, 0.5%, but 11-mo drop now 2.7 mil bbls, -1.6%.  And wacky imports figure stands at -2.8% for 10 mos.  Overall yr-to-date figure now -3.4 mil bbls, -1.8%.  Easy import comps Nov-Dec should help, but barring big Dec surprise, 2013 US shipments trend will look a lot more like 2011 than 2012.  

While retailers point to a slow economy for their sales woes, that “tells only half the story,” wrote Financial Times, because “at the root of retailers’ problems is a supply glut they have created themselves.”  Too many stores “are second rate,” and blame dates back to building boom of the 70s, noted FT.  Intl Council of Shopping Centers found Germany has avg of 2.7 sq ft of retail space per person, Japan has 3.9 ft, UK has 5ft and in US we have whopping 23.8 sq ft!  While some retailers like Best Buy cut stores to react to online commerce, others like Walmart want “to fix not ditch” underperforming locations.  Instead of cutting losses, retailers are cutting prices. “This is a dangerous race to the bottom that is destroying profits,” wrote FT. Slashing glut of stores “would be a better way to relieve retailers’ collective desperation,” in FT’s view.  Interestingly, the amount of US retail space is still going up, up 0.3-0.4% per yr last 4 yrs. Part of problem is “psychological” as retailers are being “led by a generation of chief executives that climbed the ranks in a go-go era of expansion,” however “this mindset is obsolete.”  

Phil Rosse promoted from exec veep to prexy of Mark Anthony Brands Inc, announced founder Anthony von Mandl.  He noted that Phil has “demonstrated the ability to consistently deliver outstanding results while simultaneously building our culture.”  Phil joined Mark Anthony in 2008 (from Labatt).  “Successorship is a key metric at Mark Anthony,” noted Anthony “and I am particularly pleased we have had 78 internal promotions.”  Tho Mark Anthony only up 0.5% in IRI multi-channel yr-to-date thru 12/1, it’s up 5% last 13 weeks.  And the co expects 7% growth in 2013, Phil recently told INSIGHTS, plus “robust” growth next yr, according to Anthony.