Gambrinus owner Carlos Alvarez bought Spoetzl Brewery for about $3.5 mil in 1989, plus assuming debt worth about $1 mil, when it was selling only about 200,000 cases. This yr it will sell around 8 mil cases. It's currently up about 6.5% and expects to end the yr up 8%, ceo Carlos Alvarez told CBN when we visited with him recently in San Antonio. Shiner had just introduced White Wing, a Belgian Wit that will replace its Shiner Hefeweizen, which goes on hold indefinitely. The new brand should be a "major contributor" to growth in late 2013 and through next yr, according to Carlos. On the way to the airport a couple of weeks ago, CBN saw that Gambrinus had bought a billboard ad for the new brand that proclaimed White Wing "Delightfully Odd."

Shiner has had good success with its seasonals this yr, the fastest growing seasonals among top 10 craft brewers in IRI, according to Carlos. Indeed, Shiner Seasonals volume up 107,000 cases, 38% yr-to-date thru Nov 3 in IRI multichannel + convenience. Tho only a little more than 10% of Gambrinus volume, Shiner Seasonals represented almost 40% of its growth. Shiner Bock is also up double digits, 10.2% and 189,000 cases. And importantly avg price on both brands increased more yr-to-date than for any other top craft brewer. All in, Gambrinus volume up 8.9% in IRI (including Bridgeport & Trumer).

About 68% of Shiner's biz is still in Tex. "We're a Texas brand," chief sales and marketing officer Charlie Paulette recently told San Antonio Express. While some of Shiner's growth in 2013 undoubtedly resulted from expansion, the brand still has "solid health" in core markets, said Carlos. This yr Gambrinus intro'd Shiner in Philly (Origlio) and NY (Manhattan), just recently expanding to upstate NY, with DeCrescente and more. In many of its recent distribution choices for Shiner, Gambrinus typically favors distribs with whom already enjoyed strong working relationships with, back in days when it used to do so much biz with them as importer of Modelo brands in East.

Shiner is currently available in 44 states. Next yr, Gambrinus looks to take the Shiner brands to New England and that will complete its national footprint (other than Hawaii), assuming it meets expected timetable on its $30 mil expansion at Shiner. Most of that expansion is to give it more packaging flexibility, but there are also plans "to build another multimillion dollar brewhouse," noted the San Antonio Express.

Recall, Gambrinus also owns pioneering Northwest brewer Bridgeport since 1995. Bridgeport was the first Pac NW craft brewer and also made the first IPA in the area, according to Carlos. Bridgeport will celebrate its 30th yr in 2014. While Bridgeport declining mid-singles in 2013, in a very crowded and competitive Pac NW craft mkt, Gambrinus taking multiple steps to turn that around. Bridgeport will embark on a number of initiatives surrounding its anniversary year, including just simply celebrating craft beer in the region. "The prospect for Bridgeport is going to be a way to celebrate Oregon Brewing," said Carlos. In fact, it's using billboards that say "celebrating 30 years of Oregon Craft brewing." It will also intro a trio of anniversary beers dubbed Trilogy 1, 2, 3. Meanwhile, Gambrinus also owns Trumers, which is up double digits again in 2013. Its strength focused in the Bay Area. Trumers is the #10 craft brand in SF/Oakland IRI foodstores, up 32% yr-to-date thru 9/29 (almost the same size as Dos Equis there). But it also expanded to much of SoCal in 2013.

Next yr, Gambrinus "looking forward" to double digit growth, said Carlos. With seasonal Ruby Red Bird headed "up, up, up" and its Holiday Cheer up 30% in 4th yr, Shiner's seasonal program still has legs. Shiner is a "very strong franchise" with "solid health" and a "somewhat unique personality," closed Carlos. Total Gambrinus biz is expected to top 650,000 bbls in 2013. If Gambrinus hits double digit target, it will top 700,000 bbls and 10 mil cases in 2014.  

Anytime IPA will compete against All Day IPA (Founders) and Daytime IPA (Lagunitas) next yr in the increasingly coveted and crowded session IPA space, surely a big battleground for craft beer in 2014 and beyond. Anytime IPA label from the Just Beer Project (one of Alchemy & Science's initiatives for Boston Beer) appeared on BeerPulse late yesterday. Asked if that was a new brand, Alchemy & Science's Alan Newman said it's the "same great beer as Just IPA, just a new name - one to better communicate 'sessionability.'"

That word has become something of a mantra among craft brewers these days. Could that be the next step in craft's ascent? More and more craft brews play in spaces somewhat more similar to big brewers' beers and look to source further volume from them. Sessionability is also a word that big brewers use to distinguish their beers from craft beers. Now that Lagunitas has more capacity, it will be ramping up production of its Daytime IPA. And Founders All Day has quickly risen to become that fast-growing brewer's #1 brand.

Boston getting more serious about competing in IPAs more generally as its Rebel IPA is expected to roll to many markets in 2014. That brand reportedly takes direct aim at Lagunitas IPA. Lagunitas is the fastest growing craft brewer in recent years, jumping from just over 100,000 bbls in 2010 to over 400,000 bbls in 2013. Big 2, AB and MC, have not yet made serious push into IPA space, though Goose Island's IPA up 165% on small base in IRI and Goose expected to have more IPAs coming in 2014. Total IPA $$ sales up 44% yr-to-date thru Nov 3 in IRI multichannel + convenience and gained 3 share of $$ in craft segment to 18. This article also appeared in our INSIGHTS Express earlier this morn.  

Guest-columnist Diogenes has often written about the "Founders' Preservation Society" of craft brewers and does so once again now that we're nearing the end of the year.

By Diogenes

Two-thousand thirteen is a banner year for the Founders' Preservation Society.

Bloomberg News has declared that Jim Koch, founder and Chairman of Boston Beer Co, is worth a billion dollars. Boston Beer's market capitalization is $3 billion. That has undoubtedly resulted in some other founders of Koch's generation thinking, "If Boston Beer is worth $3 billion, then what is my company worth? What am I worth?"

Boulevard Brewing Co. got a valuation of $110-$120 million from its sale to Duvel Moortgat of Belgium, which also owns Brewery Ommegang of Cooperstown, NY, according to Beer Marketer's Insights. Boston Beer sold about 2.7 million barrels last year. Boulevard sold about 175,000 barrels.

By a rough per barrel calculation, the Boulevard deal is maybe half the Boston Beer valuation. Craft Brew Alliance is also enjoying a spike in its stock price, with a market cap of $300 million.

All of this is big news for a lot of brewers on the Top 50 list.

It may not be such good news for John Hall, who sold Goose Island to Anheuser Busch-InBev for $38 million, or Alan Newman, whose Magic Hat/Pyramid breweries was sold to North American Breweries. Steve Hindy sold control of Brooklyn Brewery, for an undisclosed sum, about the same time. Fritz Maytag sold Anchor a couple of years ago too.

Kim Jordan, who gave up control of New Belgium through an employee stock option plan, got a pretty good valuation for her company, but one must wonder if it was in the Boulevard, let alone Boston Beer, realm. BMI estimated she got $175-$200 million. New Belgium is roughly five times bigger than Boulevard.

Early birds are not guaranteed the fattest worms.

Looking at the Top 25 breweries in America, August Schell, Sierra Nevada and Bell's are grooming family members for the next generation of ownership. D.G. Yuengling & Sons is committed to family ownership, though the next generation may be D.G. Yuengling & Daughters.

Jim Koch has announced plans to live forever.

Looking at the next 25, it is difficult to parse who may be looking to sell. The Founders' Preservation Society does not collect data about member breweries, like the age of the founders.

In the top 25, you might wonder about almost any one of them. In the next 25, there are many possible sellers too. The rumor mill is buzzing that there are more deals in the works.

The craft beer revolution is now in its fifth decade. It is incredible to think that craft beer is more than 10% of the dollar value of the U.S. beer industry, and growing by double digits. Today's valuations are even more incredible.

The Founders' Preservation Society is at a crossroads. Who will join the retired millionaire's club, and who will be committed to brewing for a 2d generation?  

It ain't just craft brewers investing in adding more space to accommodate their growth, their association is too. Brewers Assn just announced plans to move offices just a few blocks in Boulder, Colo to double available office space. BA expects $4 mil-transaction to close in April of 2014, followed by move-in May 1. It "will allow our staff to better serve our members in the months and years ahead," assn coo Bob Pease said in release, while the org "remains committed to being part of the downtown Boulder business community." BA currently has 50 employees, according to Boulder Daily Camera, and has no plans for full-time hires in 2014.  

Collectively, homebrewers now produce more beer than all but one craft brewer, according to results of first-ever homebrewer survey conducted by American Homebrewers Assn (arm of Brewers Assn). The org estimates 1.2 mil US homebrewers are brewing about 2 mil bbls. About 18K hobbyists completed the survey, 65% of which are AHA members. AHA membership, now at all-time high, still just over 40K, assn prexy Gary Glass told CBN. AHA worked with outside source using surveys of homebrew retailers for "very conservative" estimate of 1.2 mil homebrewers. Since retailer surveys can conflate stats for homebrewers and home wine-makers, Gary felt comfortable estimating 1.5-1.8 mil hobbyists brewing one or both beverages at home. The AHA turned those estimates and survey results over to BA staff economist Bart Watson to arrive at 2-mil bbl figure, which Gary feels "quite confident" in. It's also a stat "people can get excited about," Gary said, and have been on homebrewer forums since announcement, Gary reminds that "homebrewers are consuming more beer than your average citizen," and are "actually spending more on their beer" too, so those 2 mil bbls weren't pulled directly out of commercial sales. Respondents indicated that #1 activity for homebrewers was to visit pubs and breweries and #2 was dining out. So these folks still doing a lot of beer purchasing.

About two-thirds of surveyed hobbyists started brewing at home after 2005, but Gary noted that survey did not capture many of "the most beginner homebrewers." According to survey, average homebrewer is 40 years old, married or in a domestic partnership and "highly affluent." A full 60% of respondents were between 30-49 yrs old, 78% are married or in domestic partnership, 69% have some kind of higher education, and 60% have an annual income of $75K or more. About 31% live in the western US, 26% in the south, 23% in midwest, 17% in northeast. About 60% only brew beer, while others have tried their hands at wines, ciders, meads and more.  

We've been to plenty of consumer-facing beer events, but Union Distributors (NYC Sheehan operation) thru Great Brewers website put on big Craft Experience event three times last week: twice for retailers on Tues and a final time for consumers on Wed. Event brought together over 125 breweries, over 30 distilleries, and a handful of local food vendors on 3 floors in lower west side Manhattan building. On retailer-only night, each brewer booth had an iPad set up for retailers to place orders on the spot after trying beers and talking to brewers. Attendees connected with long list of industry folk: over 50 supplier guests, mostly founders, owners, ceos and brewmasters. That direct connection offered a "unique experience" to retailers, Union's asst mktg mgr Jordan McIntyre told CBN, often educational as well. It also resulted in about 1800 orders placed at the event during 2 sessions on Tues alone, made by 1100 swipe-able buyer-badges, she said. One out-of-town brewer told us the event replaced having to go out into market to check in with accounts as he connected with all those retailers Tues night. Pretty nifty. Great Brewers runs retailer-only events in Milwaukee, Baltimore and Boston too, every other year, but this was first time NYC event had consumer session. Tickets for consumer event ran fans $89 for 3 hrs of unlimited samples. An extra $36 got you an hour long VIP tasting before rest of general admission could enter.  

Those striking Goose Island stats were included as part of ABI's Investor Day on US biz last Thursday. AB said Goose Island "accelerating since acquisition." It showed running 12-mo totals of sales-to-retailers climbing from just a little more than 100,000 bbls to almost 350,000 bbls in last 3 yrs. Goose Island now has over 50,000 points of distribution, most added as brands expanded nationally. And distribution "continues to expand," said North American prexy Luiz Edmond. What's more, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, debt and amortization) climbed 10x since 2010. Recall, Goose Island reported oper income of about $2.2 mil in 2010 (that would be lower than its EBITDA) as AB paid $38.8 mil to acquire it. In just 3 yrs, AB now making almost as much per yr on Goose Island as it paid for it. Not a bad deal.

Total Goose Island volume up 67% yr-to-date thru Oct 13 in IRI MULC, AB showed during Investor Day. AB gave Goose prominent position during its recently concluded sales conference with distribs and apparently has big hopes for future growth. Recall, AB said a couple of yrs back that it could potentially grow Goose Island to 1 mil bbls. Goose will have lots new coming, including "some new IPAs that I'm sure craft drinkers will love," Luiz said, coming out of research and hops grown at AB's Elk Mountain Hop Farm. "With only 17% awareness nationally," said high end vp Adam Oakley of Goose brands, "there remains nothing but upside."  

Ten % share still years away for craft in all channels, but craft already pushing up against that milestone in its most developed channel (supers) in most recent period. Craft up 14% for 4 weeks thru Nov 3 in IRI foodstores, gaining a full share point to 9.62 for 4 weeks and gaining 1.5 share to fully 15 of $$ sales in same period. Yr-to-date, craft gained 1 share to 8.3 of volume and 1.45 share of $$ to 13. Means craft now passed sub-premium $$ share yr-to-date, tho craft has sold less than half the volume of sub-premium segment in foodstores. In fact, in this channel, volume gains in above-premium beer segments (import, craft and super-premium) make up for all but 10% of volume losses of premium and sub-premium segments. Craft's growth of more than 3.78 mil case-equivalents (CEs) yr-to-date in this channel more than makes up for loss of 3.75 mil CEs from sub-premiums. Addition of 3.18 mil CEs from non-beer beverages (PABs and cider) pushes overall volume trend positive, +0.7% YTD.  

Total craft pricing +2.2% to $34.12 per case for 13 wks thru Nov 3 in IRI MULC channel. Yet leading craft brands' prices not budging much. Six of top 10 brands up 0.6% or less, while avg price declined for 3 of top 10 brands. Sam Seasonal, Sierra Pale and Sam Lager each up 0.4-0.6% for 13 weeks. Avg Fat Tire prices down 1.5% for 13 weeks. Shiner Bock the only top 10 brand with healthy avg price increase, up almost a dollar, 3.3%, likely thanks to new markets in northeast.

New Belgium's Ranger IPA had the biggest drop in price among leading brands: down 2.2%, 73 cents per case. Average Sierra seasonal prices down 0.8%, $0.25 per case. Prices for rest of top 10 up less than 1%. All in, prices for 11 of top 30 craft brands down during this 13 wk period, and another 9 up less than 1%. Avg prices up 2% or more for just 5 of top 30 brands: Goose 312 (+6.2%), Shiner Seasonal (+4%), Shiner Bock (+3.3%), Magic Hat #9 (+2.1%) and Dogfish Head 60 Minute (+2%). Shiner and Goose each still priced at least $2 lower than avg craft price per case of $34.12 (Dogfish avg price per case about $10 higher than craft avg).

Twelve of top 30 brands are gaining share of segment dollars, but half of those brands avg price per case flat or down in last 13 weeks thru Nov 3. Seven of top 10 brands losing share of craft $$ and volume, but $$ sales for all 10 up 9% or more for 13 wks.  

Overall beer biz saw one of healthiest 4 wk periods all yr, with volume +2.4% in IRI MULC (multi-channel + conv) thru Nov 3. Craft grabbed over a quarter of that growth, with +17% pop for 4 wks. Craft, import and super-premium segments each grabbed between 0.5-0.6 volume share during same period, as premium and sub-premium shed over 2 share of volume. Craft $$ even stronger, now +19% yr-to-date, with avg price/case up over 2% to almost $34. Yet last 13 wks even more robust, craft $$ up almost 21%, grabbing 0.85 share to 6.64. For 4 wks, craft just shy of 7 share of $$, prices +2.7% to over $34.50/case.