AB sales-to-retailers dropped 1% in Fla in 2012, while Crown jumped 5%. That’s 3d yr of solid growth for Crown in Fla in a row, while AB has lost nearly 10% of its volume in Fla last 4 yrs. AB lost 2 share 2009-2011. Total industry Fla shipments up 1.6% thru Nov, so very likely that AB lost share in Fla in 2012 too.

Three of AB’s 6 Super Bowl spots, and 90 seconds out of a total 270 AB placed on Super Bowl (1/3 of its time) will highlight new brands, Budweiser Black Crown and Beck’s Sapphire. That amounts to a big bet on a big stage as avg Super Bowl spot costs $3.8 mil or so for 30 seconds (AB likely pays less) and Super Bowl had 111 mil viewers in 2012. “You cannot match the opportunity” that Super Bowl provides for a new brand, mktg veep Paul Chibe told INSIGHTS. Super Bowl is an “amazing venue to launch a new brand,” added Paul, citing exceptionally rapid growth in awareness for Platinum last yr following Super Bowl debut, which “got it moving quickly out of the box.” But Platinum gets no ads on big game this yr, tho there’s “more to announce” on Platinum coming soon.

AB will use first ad after kickoff for Budweiser Black Crown. That’s a sweet spot, per ad execs, same key exposure it gave Platinum last yr. AB will also run 15-sec teaser spots for Black Crown during AFC and NFC Championships. Bud Light will be featured on Super Bowl with two 1-min ads that center on its “superstitious” campaign that ran during football season as those ads have “done well driving performance” of Bud Light, sez Paul. Clydesdales are back “front and center” in 1-min Bud spot, after being relegated to “a supporting role” last couple of yrs, noted Ad Age. There’s “internal debate” at AB as to worth of Clydesdales; some see them as “more of a goodwill” symbol for AB rather than a mktg vehicle to drive Bud growth, sez Ad Age.

Import shipments stung in Nov as Mexican shipments tumbled 18%, Dutch shipments off 1%, Canadian and Belgian biz each off about 20%. All in, Nov imports down 228,000 bbls, 11%, according to Commerce Dept data prepared by Beer Inst. (Nov 2011 was big mo, +14%.) That sliced yr-to-date gain to 533,000 bbls, just 2.1%. Mexican shipments still up healthy 990,000 bbls, 7%. And Dutch up 158,000 bbls, 3%. Belgian biz solid too: +162,000 bbls, 13%. But Canadian biz -12%, German biz off almost 40%, a combined loss of over 700,000 bbls, as Beck’s, some Molson brands now brewed in US. Same issue whackin’ Jamaican biz. Irish/UK shipments each off slightly.

We know you've got lots to read, but we've got lots to say too, so we're excited to introduce you to Beer Insights Extras. We've carved out some space on our website to post more thoughts, more news, and more insights from our writer/editors. There you'll be able to find follow-up material to published articles, links to interesting stories elsewhere on the web and updates on the travels of our staff. For example, check out more notes from our visit to Brooklyn Brewery's distributor conference earlier this week. Visit regularly and comment often and we hope you'll enjoy reading it as much as we are writing it.

Some small brewer exclusive clubs look very different from the picture we painted in last week's article. Take Flying Dog's Junto Society, inaugurated in 2012 and now in its second year. This year, its membership is capped at 115, to find "a balance between our taproom capacity and still having an intimate group," communication director Erin Weston explained to us. That's cuz Junto Society members don't receive specialty bottles, they attend monthly meetings at the brewery where they test out as-yet-unreleased beers and discuss them with the brewers. Members also take "beer excursions" together outside of those meetings, either to other breweries or to "community service projects," like "a stream clean-up in a small town right outside of Frederick." The Society currently has a waiting list for when memberships open up, all "sponsored" by current Junto members, which pay $150 for the oppy to participate.

Some not-yet-breweries have also picked up on the idea of these clubs to help raise funds to open their doors. This strategy has worked particularly well for Miami-based J. Wakefield Brewing founder Johnathan Wakefield, whose pre-opening efforts have earned him some serious cred and some serious cash. J. Wakefield has become a darling in South Fla beer circles by working hard to introduce potential future-customers to his beers. Just last week he launched a CrowdBrewed funding campaign (basically Kickstarter purely for craft brewers, see CBN from Aug 16) with the goal of raising $55K. Within 2 days of launching the campaign, he'd raised almost $90K. At press-time the number has reached near $100K, with 5 weeks left before the campaign ends. Over $87K came from 291 donations of $300, for which donors received membership to "JWG's 'OG's' Membership Society." Perks include "six or more 750 mL beers over the course of a year," plus merch, "surprises," discounts, more. To compare to those other clubs we wrote about last week, $300 for six 750s is $50/bottle and almost $2/oz; or, from JWB's perspective, over $7800/bbl for just over 11 bbls.

Even if brewers have sources of funding, finding suitable land for big facilities ain't easy, particularly in urban areas. Dan Kopman of St Louis Brewery (Schlafly) spoke with St Louis Biz Journal about continued search for location to expand. "First part of this year, we grew 12-13%, so if that is the case that's gonna put us somewhere between 55k and 60k bbls for 2013," sez Kopman. Current Bottleworks location has "production capacity right around 50,000 bbls," and their "taproom still is producing a couple thousand bbls," so they're running out of room fast. Expansion would likely cost $20 mil for between 20 and 50 acres, and "needs to purchase land for the brewery by the end of 2014….to open by 2017 or 2018," Kopman told the paper.

Here they go again. Craft brewers and their allies taking aim at another state law reform. Recall that Minn craft brewer Surly led drive in 2011 to change state law and allow on-site beer sales. Now comes Jason Alvey, owner of craft beer store called Four Firkins and his craft allies in Minnesota Beer Activists to pass Sunday sales in state next yr. Powerful Minn Licensed Bev Assn, which represents states' many mom and pop liquor stores, has successfully fought Sunday sales for years. (Proposal got voted down 106-21 last session.) They believe Sunday sales would simply stretch same sales dollars over 7 days instead of 6 and add costs. But Minny Beer Activists "want to reframe the perennial issue at the Capitol as a question of what the public wants rather than what liquor store owners want," reports Politics in MN. Polling has indicated public support. MBA will have assistance of DISCUS, which has long supported Sunday sales, of course.

Alvey is blunt. "Customers overwhelmingly support this and the number one rule of retail is listen to your customers. Some of these liquor store owners - it's a very old boys' club." Many owners are in their 80s, "silver-haired old men who haven't stepped a foot in their retail stores for years. They are so out of touch with their customers, it's a joke, and these are the guys who are the overwhelming majority." Blunt himself, MLBA's director Frank Ball called Sunday sales efforts "the pig that just won't die." Barring Sunday sales actually in public interest, he sez, since stores are "selling a controlled substance" and legislature understands that. He doesn't like the craft folk any more than Alvey likes the silver-haired 80-yr-olds: "The craft beer people coming and saying, 'Why do we need all these regulations?' It's not tires, batteries etc. It's booze we're talking about, and legislators listen." Game on.

Elsewhere, speaking at CLE Intl's "Wine, Beer & Spirits Law" conference yesterday, 3 of 4 state regulators on panel noted craft bills/proposals while updating industry attys on latest developments in their states. Regulators from Calif and Neb highlighted growler concerns, a new law in Calif, a study issue in Neb. Ill Liq Control's genl counsel cited recently-passed increased cap in that state for self-distribution. Keep in mind too that craft reforms very much on table in both Pennsy and Mich legislatures right now, as we've reported.  

Experienced panel at Brooklyn Brewery's distrib conference earlier this week offered plenty of insight into current craft issues. Consultant Joe Thompson sez in the long run any threats to 3 tier will have negative effect, since craft brewers have greatly benefited from a strong 3 tier system. But franchise law carve outs are legit way to maintain fairness, said Brooklyn founder Steve Hindy. Joe agreed, stating carve outs around "3 or 4%" of distrib's volume will help overall performance by making distribs more competitive to keep their smaller brands.

Hindy said craft brewers are "over-reaching" in Pennsy and Mass proposals, and should be more "modest." Joe reminded everyone that initial proposal typically over-reaches and eventually whittles towards "compromise at a reasonable level."

Are Big 2 Exerting More Pressure on Non-Aligned Crafts? Joe thinks yes. Even noted that in one recent deal, top brewer is requiring buyer to "limit % of non-aligned craft," as it was about to close. Also noted that ABI and MC are not all that "respectful" to wholesalers, which is an oppy for craft.

Craft vs Crafty Of course, had to come up at some point. When asked if Craft should continue aligning itself with Craft vs Crafty argument, Steve defended the initial commentary, but said since then BA relatively quiet, tho theme clearly resonated with the media. BA hasn't pushed this argument any further since initial statement was made, according to Steve. "Sure did piss off the big guys," tho Joe thought it was better for craft folks to steer clear of the debate.

Shakeout Coming? When asked if a Craft shakeout is coming, Steve said "I don't think there ever has been a shakeout," noting that the number of breweries doubled during so called shakeout in the 90s. A whole new generation of innovative craft breweries actually started up during this period in the 90s with broadened styles and innovation in industry. As for the future, Steve notes "4,000 craft breweries in US is not unreasonable," tho inevitably, "there will be failures," pointing to 4,000 wineries in Calif alone. Something like 50% of brewpubs that have opened still in business, and 70% of production cos, Steve noted. Joe sez craft growth should be "sustained for foreseeable future."

Should Craft Care About Overall Beer Volume? The short answer is yes, according to panelists. The more consumers enjoy beer, the better it will be for craft, noted Joe. While overall volume declining, AB and MC were the bulk of that volume decrease. Joe added that AB focus is global, "no longer a U.S (focused) strategy." That is part of reason for volume decreases; eventually investments overseas will diminish. Right now they don't know how to turn it around in US, according to Joe. He expects industry to continue to lose approx. 1% volume per year until 2020. Whether or not Craft should care, "not much we can do, they (the big guys) are the ones screwing it up," said Steve. He makes the point that once a beer brand starts to decline, nobody has yet been able to turn it around. Joe stated big brewers "are making it up in margin," and warned "they can reinvent themselves."

Craft brewers are more effective marketers right now, noted Joe. "Social media happened at a perfect time for craft beer," said Hindy. Craft consumers are typically more tech-savvy, as he noted, even in 1984 some 80% of subscribers to a home-brewing magazine owned computers. In 1984! In the 70's all the big guys had to do was advertise on the big TV networks, tho now that time has passed stated Joe.

Approaching the end of a major system upgrade, Odell Brewing in Fort Collins is enjoying solid growth as it preps for almost doubling the number of folks able to buy its brands. Odell's total biz is up about 16% YTD, sales veep Eric Smith told CBN recently, on the way towards 80K bbls by yr-end. Co-founder Wynne Odell pointed to double-digit growth from long-term stalwart 90 Shilling, still 35% of volume, and also from its hot IPA, up over 30% and the brewery's fastest-grower now. "July and August were gorgeous months," Wynne said. In fact, August was "record-breaking," Eric said, helped along by new Montage mixed 12-pk of 90 Shilling, IPA and seasonal release, which Eric said "crushed for us this summer." Montage is inching closer to Odell's #2 package in Colo and many other states, tho it only launched at home in May, followed by limited distribution elsewhere in June.

Brewers at Odell had been working 24-7 since April to keep up with demand, co-founder Doug Odell explained as he toured us thru the co's newly-expanded facility. Those brewers finally have time to breathe again now that they've moved over from working on a 3-vessel 50-bbl brewhouse to a 5-vessel 135-bbl system. Expansion to the Odell facility included a new home for that system, along with space to add a possible 6th vessel if it's needed down the line, and more space for a number of other brewery functions: labs, storage, visitor space and more. Tho brewers have been using the new brewhouse, manufacturer BrauKon will be headed back to the brewery at the end of the month to fix a couple glitches Odell's working thru at the moment. Then it'll be able to sell off the 50-bbl system and turn its original 5-bbl brewhouse into a "show-piece," Doug explained. Odell still uses the small system for R&D, as it has for many years, and will be able to show off its work better, just as more and more large craft brewers install similar set-ups.

Colorado still represents almost 70% of Odell's biz and is still growing on par with total biz despite 187 other brewers in the state. Doug shared that stat based on a recent conversation with Colo's guild and compared it to the 6 brewers in the state when Odell opened its doors in 1989. Wynne explained the "ease of starting and operating in Colorado" as a real driver for craft beer in the state. Since anything over 3.2 alc by weight needs to be sold in a totally independent liquor store, "even the smallest guy" can pitch a buyer and get placements based on the "merits of your beer," Doug continued. As such, Odell will sometimes "choose non-chain" states since "we know how to work that" system, Wynne said. Minnesota, another non-chain state, is Odell's second-largest market now.

Yet chain-heavy Texas will be Odell's next big adventure. Wynne expects it'll enter the market around March of next year and is forecasting that Texas alone could add around 10% to volume. Therefore, Odell should be "growing at a higher rate next year" than it usually tries to hit, Wynne explained. Importantly, the 10 states Odell is already sold in have a combined population of only about 33 million. Texas alone is about 26 million, Wynne cited, so the co is essentially doubling the amount of Americans able to buy its products. Marketing director Amanda Johnson-King explained to us that a local study identified that the "bulk of Colorado vacation homes are from Texans," and that the co's Facebook page has a large number of fans in Dallas already. And tho plenty of sizeable craft brewers have decided to open up in Texas recently, Wynne believes the market's "not fully developed by any means" just yet.

The heady growth and monster-plans of many competing companies "doesn't really affect our operations," Wynne shared since "we know financially that we're rock solid." Doug is "a little concerned" about potential for a "volume rush to pay for it all" or a "price war," and Wynne fretted about companies "essentially committing suicide by dropping price," but they're confident about their position. Odell beers are "worth what we're charging" and any coming "shakeout," in his words, would potentially have the biggest effect on "marginal players," in her's.

Craft accelerated to over 20% $$ growth during last 4- and 13-wk periods, according to IRI multi-outlet + convenience data thru Sept 8. Craft $$ now up 18.4% yr-to-date, grabbing 0.8 share to just under 6, volume +16%. IPAs still on a tear, $$ +42.8% yr-to-date (even faster recently) contributing almost 40% of craft $$-growth and gaining 3.5 share.

Of top 30 craft brands in multi-outlet + c-store only 5 showing $$ down yr-to-date, but that shrinks to 3 for last 13 wks and just 2 (Widmer Hefe and Sam Adams Light) for 4 wks. Top 3 flagships all growing faster in most recent 4 wks than longer periods: Fat Tire +5% now for 4 wks, Sierra Pale +9% and Boston Lager +20%. Half of top 30 brands growing faster than +20% during most recent period, including Bell's Two Hearted +75%, Goose Island 312 +77% and Lagunitas IPA +92%.

Lagunitas' total biz is up even faster, $$ +107% for 13 wks thru Sept 8 in multi-outlet + c-store, but other top craft suppliers posting solid growth too. Boston Beer $$ +35.9%, including Angry Orchard ciders and Twisted Teas, same period. Sierra +9.4% and New Belgium +10.7%, but growing faster recently. Gambrinus, CBA and Deschutes all +12%. Stone and Bell's both up over 30%. Sweetwater coming on, +57%. Long Trail down 5%.

Lagunitas Packs Gaining Share of Segment in Supers; Change of Seasons Changing Seasonal Trends; Variety Packs Turning now to foodstores, craft's most developed channel, check out changes in craft $$ share for last 13 wks in IRI's Top 50 Craft Packages. Lagunitas had top 3 segment share-gainers that period: Little Sumpin Sumpin 6-pk +0.32, IPA 6-pk +0.29, IPA 12-pk +0.24. Means just these 3 packages added 0.85 share of segment for Lagunitas, about as much as the next 7 craft share-gainers combined.

Now that fall seasonals have taken over for summer offerings, trends are starting to shift too. Interestingly, Sam Adams seasonal $$ +6.4% yr-to-date in supers, but up much faster, +13%, for 13 wks and much slower, +0.7%, for 4 wks. Both Sierra and New Belgium have to be glad fall is here tho. Sierra seasonal $$ trend turning around from -5.7% yr-to-date to +8% for 4 wks. NBB tells similar story: -11.4% yr-to-date but now +8.7% for 4 wks. On the other hand, Bells' seasonal is up 10% for the yr, and is accelerating +14.6% in last 4 wks, and bigger than NBB's seasonal across all periods.

Variety packs certainly adding to craft momentum in this key channel too. Yr-to-date craft variety up 19% by $$ and volume, grabbing .44 share of craft cases to over 11 share. "Style" is led by Sam Adams variety, up over 20% by $$ so far in 2013. New Belgium's variety also up 20%. CBA making headway here: Kona variety +32.6%, Redhook +21.5% and Widmer variety +0.3% too.