Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

We know all about info overload, but growing staff here at beer marketer’s INSIGHTS has lots more to say than we can fit into our publications. So we’ve launched Beer INSIGHTS Extra, a blog for additional commentary, facts, observations and hopefully more insight too. Click here to join us.
Ongoing tussle between big aluminum users, including brewers and soft drink producers, and London Metal Exchange (LME) still unresolved. Recall that producers have major beef over how long it takes to get aluminum out of warehouses, which costs them many millions extra. General counsels for Beer Inst and American Bev Assn just sent letter to London Metal Exchange on behalf of Aluminum Users Group criticizing proposed fix that would still keep aluminum users waiting in 100-day lines. This fix, wrote the lawyers, doesn’t really fix current “dysfunctional” system that’s “prone to manipulation.” If system “left uncorrected,” could mean “long-term harm to the entire aluminum market.” Net-net: users seek “more transparent and efficient physical delivery settlement with an end to lengthy queues.” Detailed list of technical corrections from attys seeks to significantly shorten period between orders and delivery, a better process to resolve disputes and adoption of “more coordinated regulatory oversight” of LME’s practices, including warehouse rules, plus a “regulatory framework across countries and regions” to assure fair mkt for metal. Who sez big brewers want deregulation?
Lotsa buzz about new Guinness ad in recent days. Not since Dos Equis “Most Interesting Man” can we remember an ad getting this much press, interestingly enuf both imports. The ad revisits many traditional beer advertising themes, such as male camaraderie, sports, competiveness, strength, but with a contemporary twist. Also includes classic pour shot at end. When one discovers that the men in the ad used wheelchairs to play basketball to include one friend who has a physical disability, we see “what’s exceptional about the ad is how it presents the characters’ sensitivity hand in hand with their physical strength and love for contact sports,” wrote Business Insider. As the friends celebrate with a round of Guinness, the ad closes with the statement “the choices we make reveal the true nature of our character.” Ad proves there’s still plenty of life and creativity in traditional beer themes.

No surprise that AB will introduce more Ritas, since they’re hot and line extensions have been rumored for some time. Rita platform could clearly be extended, AB mktg veep Paul Chibe acknowledged to INSIGHTS last mo. Yesterday, AB sent notice to distribs that Cran-Brr-Rita “a new limited time only winter seasonal offering, launching on November 4, 2013, just in time for the holiday season” in 12-packs of 8 oz cans and 25 oz can. And 2 others are reportedly next up: Raz-Ber-Rita and Mango Rita, tho neither yet formally announced. This seasonal Cran-Brr-Rita is intended to “build on the momentum” of Straw-Ber-Rita, which is “leading the industry in share growth in 2013 and is now the leading brand in the FMB category, just ahead of Lime-A-Rita.”

Ritas Still Rock Yet Total AB Share Off AB has seized control of FMB segment in the last couple of yrs, just as Angry Orchard has taken commanding lead in cider. Both really came out-of-blue and suggest some of the volatility that suddenly fashionable segments sometimes face. Straw-Ber-Rita at 0.89 share of $$ yr-to-date in IRI multi-outlet + convenience thru Aug 11, while Lime-A-Rita at 0.77 share. While Straw-Ber-Rita all incremental, Lime-A-Rita up 0.41 share of $$. So the 2 combined for incremental 1.3 share and yet AB still down 0.5 share of $$ yr-to-date. And down 0.95 last 4 weeks. Actually, Lime-A-Rita now going up against big launch numbers and volume and $$ declined in most recent periods.

This is 1 of several mostly smaller MC deals in Illinois in recent yrs. Koerner will keep Orange & Blue name. Orange & Blue owner Alan Everette still owns MC distrib in Okla. Orange & Blue sold following death of another part-owner, Peer Pederson. This deal on the table for quite awhile, and went thru several twists and turns before finally closing. Interestingly, Orange & Blue competes against Gaudio in part of its territory. That’s the AB distrib that filed for Chapter XI this summer. Recall, bankruptcy court judge recently approved deal for Gaudio to sell to Skeff Dist closing in Sep. So within 1 mo, both AB and MC distribs in rural Illinois market will have changed hands.
Beer volume up 1%, $$ up 3.3% for 4 weeks thru Aug 31 in Nielsen food/drug/mass/Walmart/$$, reported Goldman Sachs’ Judy Hong. “After five straight periods of volume declines earlier this yr, volumes moved into positive territory in July… and continued to grow this month.” All the growth is in high end, added Judy. MC volume down 2.4%, AB down 0.8%, while Crown and Boston Beer up double digits for mo. Boston Beer “slowed” to 12% growth in these channels for mo.
Pepin Distributing “has completed a $12 million warehouse expansion,” mainly to “make room for craft beer,” Tampa Bay Times reports. Craft only 5.5% of the local Tampa market, but Pepin sees continued growth in segment. A decade ago Pepin spent $20 mil to expand warehouse. This time, warehouse space increased 56%, cooler space for kegs increased 64%, up to 334,000 total square footage – this brings overall capacity up to 1.3 mil cases, a 44% increase from previous 900k capacity. Currently “Pepin distributes beer from 19 different breweries,” writes Tampa Times; Pepin sales down 2% in 2013, was down 2% in 2012. Total revs $154 mil last year. Gotta note AB down 9%, 740,000 bbls in Fla last 4 yrs.
AB may have to sell off its 30% stake in Chicagoland’s City Bev, but it’s investing serious $$ elsewhere in state. Chicago media hoppin’ with announcement that AB signed deal to be exclusive beer sponsor at Wrigley Field. Marketing agreement will give AB naming rights, exclusive use of Cubs logo in ads and lotsa stadium signage, including eventually a huge new scoreboard over right field. Pabst’s Old Style, closely affiliated with Cubs since 1950, ends its relationship. AB brands won’t be only brews available at stadium, but Cubs promising Old Style will be poured only thru end of this season. Brand decisions for next season still being made. Already speculation in Chi Trib that Goose Island will expand presence at Wrigley, possibly even with brand brewed solely for stadium. Also in Ill, AB will open a “state of the art data analytics center” at University of Illinois’ Research Park. Bud Lab will “focus on data analytics, developing data research and innovation to solve problems ranging from assortment optimization, social media and market trends to large scale data initiatives,” AB announced. Price tags for these projects not announced, but Wrigley deal’s gotta be big bucks and AB joins 15 other big companies (Dow, John Deere, etc) with projects at Research Park. Recall AB passed MillerCoors as #1 brewer in Ill in 2011. Last yr, AB had 38.5 share, about 1 share ahead of MC.
As Boston stock continues to climb, hitting new all-time high of $227 today and reaching a $2.9 bil mkt cap, Bloomberg did big feature welcoming Boston Beer founder Jim ceo to its Billionaires Index with a “net worth above $1 billion.” “Having watched my stock price go up and down, it seems almost whimsical,” Jim told Bloomberg. “I remind people getting rich is life’s great booby prize. Any normal person would much rather be happy than rich…. Because this was something started out of passion, I’ve been able to sustain 30 years of growing the business with all the ups and downs.”

Value of Boston stock has multiplied by more than 10x since 2009. Jim joins Dick Yuengling on Bloomberg’s list. Dick has a “fortune valued at more than $2.7 billion,” sez Bloomberg Index. That’s about 2x what Forbes listed Dick at. And recall that Dick balked at Forbes’ valuation, noting that no one would pay him $1 bil for his co and he wouldn’t take it even if it was offered as he’s “not for sale.” Jim too has often downplayed the wealth creation aspect of his biz, often noting that stock prices can fluctuate pretty markedly as indeed Boston’s has. But both of these American mavericks have built personal fortunes that few among their much larger brewing brethren have attained.
Heineken sees big oppy with its biggest customers as beer biz has moved from 25% natl accounts in 2000 to 42% today and will be 50% “pretty soon,” noted prexy Dolf van den Brink in info-packed Sep 6 presentation to investors. Key case in point: Walmart, which is HUSA’s #1 off-premise customer. HUSA up 30% in nation’s largest retailer, growing at more than double overall category rate, said Dolf. Brand Heineken is up 25% and Dos Equis up 36% in Walmart YTD 2013. That follows 15% growth in Walmart last yr. Walmart is on mission to double its beer biz in next few yrs. Heineken has tripled its account team at Walmart and increased its investment by 5x there. But HUSA also focusing on other key accounts. Its #1 on-premise account, like for so many others, is Buffalo Wild Wings. HUSA volume was up 34% in Buffalo Wild Wings in 2012. And grocery chain HEB is #1 account for Dos Equis, where the brand is bigger than Corona or Heineken, according to Dolf. Dos has continued to grow at 20%+ clip in Tex, even tho by now it is big established brand there. Dos still has plenty of room to run, said Dolf, in part because it is only at 58% distribution nationally. What’s more, Dos brand had some gaps in pricing with Corona and Heineken, which it is gradually closing. Rev per hectolitre up 2.9% for Dos in Jun 2013, compared to Jun 2012.

Surprising growth spurt for Strongbow recently as HUSA zeroes in on cider oppy. It’s up 97% last 4 weeks thru Aug 10 in Nielsen, following 94% the period before that and 83% the 4 weeks before that. Strongbow had grown 28% per yr in 2011-2012 Nielsen data under Vermont Hard Cider, but dipped to teens earlier this yr as HUSA transitioned from a number of distribs. It has steadily picked up steam since, even with “no new marketing.” Dolf painted very bullish picture, noting that next yr will be major relaunch, including global package and “right marketing mix.” (Strongbow is #1 cider globally). “We are well-positioned to ignite Strongbow growth” within the cider category.

The other big % growth brand is Tecate Light, which is up 44% yr-to-date thru Aug 10 in Nielsen, while Tecate brand is up 1%. Compare to 2010 when Tecate regular down 12% and Tecate Light down 2%. Interestingly Tecate Light only about 15% of Tecate franchise nationally. Compare to Mexico where it’s 76% of Tecate volume. In Ariz, it’s 48% of Tecate franchise. Tecate Light’s distribution levels are still only in the low 20s.

The mothership Heineken is still 50-60% of HUSA’s biz. Heineken “improvement seen across all geographies,” Dolf showed. US depletions dropped 9% in 2009, including double-digit drops across most of West. But last yr brand Heineken flat, including 1% or greater gains in most of southeast. Brand Heineken rev per hectolitre up 0.7% in Jun 2013, compared to Jun 2012 as Heineken able to take price in many of its biggest mkts like Fla, Ill, NJ and Mass. But total HUSA rev per hectoliter up 0.6%, Dolf noted. That’s in part because aggressive growth of Tecate Light, priced at mainstream, creates downward mix shift. So HUSA intent on introducing brands at higher price points, such as Strongbow. Strongbow at a price index of 189 to leading mainstream brands, while Heineken at 145. While much of pricing in beer biz these days comes from mix shift, “any opportunity to take price we will,” Dolf added.