Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Heineken sees big oppy with its biggest customers as beer biz has moved from 25% natl accounts in 2000 to 42% today and will be 50% “pretty soon,” noted prexy Dolf van den Brink in info-packed Sep 6 presentation to investors. Key case in point: Walmart, which is HUSA’s #1 off-premise customer. HUSA up 30% in nation’s largest retailer, growing at more than double overall category rate, said Dolf. Brand Heineken is up 25% and Dos Equis up 36% in Walmart YTD 2013. That follows 15% growth in Walmart last yr. Walmart is on mission to double its beer biz in next few yrs. Heineken has tripled its account team at Walmart and increased its investment by 5x there. But HUSA also focusing on other key accounts. Its #1 on-premise account, like for so many others, is Buffalo Wild Wings. HUSA volume was up 34% in Buffalo Wild Wings in 2012. And grocery chain HEB is #1 account for Dos Equis, where the brand is bigger than Corona or Heineken, according to Dolf. Dos has continued to grow at 20%+ clip in Tex, even tho by now it is big established brand there. Dos still has plenty of room to run, said Dolf, in part because it is only at 58% distribution nationally. What’s more, Dos brand had some gaps in pricing with Corona and Heineken, which it is gradually closing. Rev per hectolitre up 2.9% for Dos in Jun 2013, compared to Jun 2012.

Surprising growth spurt for Strongbow recently as HUSA zeroes in on cider oppy. It’s up 97% last 4 weeks thru Aug 10 in Nielsen, following 94% the period before that and 83% the 4 weeks before that. Strongbow had grown 28% per yr in 2011-2012 Nielsen data under Vermont Hard Cider, but dipped to teens earlier this yr as HUSA transitioned from a number of distribs. It has steadily picked up steam since, even with “no new marketing.” Dolf painted very bullish picture, noting that next yr will be major relaunch, including global package and “right marketing mix.” (Strongbow is #1 cider globally). “We are well-positioned to ignite Strongbow growth” within the cider category.

The other big % growth brand is Tecate Light, which is up 44% yr-to-date thru Aug 10 in Nielsen, while Tecate brand is up 1%. Compare to 2010 when Tecate regular down 12% and Tecate Light down 2%. Interestingly Tecate Light only about 15% of Tecate franchise nationally. Compare to Mexico where it’s 76% of Tecate volume. In Ariz, it’s 48% of Tecate franchise. Tecate Light’s distribution levels are still only in the low 20s.

The mothership Heineken is still 50-60% of HUSA’s biz. Heineken “improvement seen across all geographies,” Dolf showed. US depletions dropped 9% in 2009, including double-digit drops across most of West. But last yr brand Heineken flat, including 1% or greater gains in most of southeast. Brand Heineken rev per hectolitre up 0.7% in Jun 2013, compared to Jun 2012 as Heineken able to take price in many of its biggest mkts like Fla, Ill, NJ and Mass. But total HUSA rev per hectoliter up 0.6%, Dolf noted. That’s in part because aggressive growth of Tecate Light, priced at mainstream, creates downward mix shift. So HUSA intent on introducing brands at higher price points, such as Strongbow. Strongbow at a price index of 189 to leading mainstream brands, while Heineken at 145. While much of pricing in beer biz these days comes from mix shift, “any opportunity to take price we will,” Dolf added.


The annual Beer Insights Seminar is one of the industry's premier events. This year, we'll be in NYC once again at the Waldorf=Astoria on Nov 11. The program features a top-notch line-up of industry speakers and there's plenty of oppys to network with beer biz peers. On tap to speak: AB sales veep David Almeida, Heineken USA president Dolf van den Brink, new Pabst president and chief operating officer Kevin McAdams and Harpoon ceo Rich Doyle. We'll also have two panels. Consultant Bump Williams will speak with MillerCoors chief customer officer Kevin Doyle, Crown exec veep sales Bruce Jacobson and Boston Beer sales veep John Geist. The 2d will feature several leading data experts, GuestMetrics ceo Bill Pecoriello, IRI principal alc bev insights Dan Wandel and Nielsen sr veep Andrea Riberi. As always, BMI's Benj Steinman will present an overview of industry trends. The seminar is $1150 per person. Sign up for what's sure to be a jampacked and insightful day. Seating is limited. Click here for more info. Click here to register.


Global brewers' embrace of US 3-tier system has always been tepid at best. Yet here comes SABMiller defending 3-tier in its home country. Recall what SABMiller's Graham Mackay told us about a year ago on 3-tier system: "Here it is and here it will stay." System has "a lot of advantages," such as that it's "highly entrepreneurial" and has strong "local connections.... Where it works well, it works spectacularly well." But: "brand owners can't" simply "change things to suit themselves when they want to or need to set up parallel systems or do dramatic things to get their brands to market, when they feel that their brands are not getting a fair shake." That part is "cumbersome." US system is "unique…. Certainly nowhere in the world is beer distribution anything like it."

Interestingly, SABMiller is vigorously defending distrib exclusive contracts in South Africa, with ex-Miller chief Norman Adami leading the charge, reports the Sunday Times. Most of SAB's beer goes through brewery-owned depots there, where retailers and re-sellers pick it up. But SAB also sells about 10% of its volume thru 14 distribs that service rural areas, have exclusive contracts, performance standards and get a 7% discount. Other distribs/retailers, who don't get the discount, complained to South African Competition Tribunal charging price discrimination. They want same discount and/or have the depot system across the country. That would threaten the smaller exclusive distribs and extending discounts would be big financial hit to SAB. Norman defended the relationships, in part set up in the 1980s as "empowerment opportunity in rural areas." Eight of the 14 distributor ships are black-owned. "We're saying there are 14 appointed distributors who risk losing their entire business, which they have developed over decades. As a corporate citizen we believe we haven't done anything wrong, and we feel we've got a moral obligation to these people." A decision is pending. By the way, Graham Mackay "resumed his role as non-executive chairman after treatment for a brain tumor," Bloomberg reports today. In addition to praising acting chairman John Manser, Graham said "I am delighted that the transition of the chief executive's management responsibilities to Alan Clark has gone so well."


Exports by US brewers slowed from hot 23% gain in 2012, but still up 170,000 bbls, 8.3% to 2.2 mil bbls for 7 mos thru Jul, reports Beer Inst based on Commerce Dept data. That's still a fraction (about 15%) of beer imported to US, but US brewers makin' some inroads. Mexico is by far biggest buyer of US-made beer (almost 1/3 of total exports) and shipments south of the border up 82,000 bbls, 13% to 695,000 bbls for 7 mos. Canada is 2d-biggest mkt (another 20% or so), tho down 28,000 bbls, 6.5% yr-to-date. Volumes are small but lotsa outsized gains to several Central and South American mkts: Chile (+22%), Costa Rica (+20%) Honduras (+63%), Panama (+39%). But several big gains in Europe too: UK (+73%), Ireland (+126%), Sweden (+81%) Even far, far away Australia (+42%), China (+138%) and Japan (+21.5%) chipping in.


Lotsa talk about positioning beer to appeal more to women, given beer's popularity gap with wine/spirits among half the population (and most of the shoppers). Interesting cut of Nielsen data from latest letter from consultant Bump Williams to his clients this week shows where women of different age groups do their spending. Turns out biggest beer outlet - c-stores - is both challenge and oppy, especially for millennial women. Women under 35 only spend about 9% of their $$ in c-stores, vs about 20% each in mass merchandisers and supercenters. Households without a female head spend whopping 27% of their dollars in c-stores. C-stores only slightly more popular among women 35-44, who spend 11% of their dollars there.


In their lobbying of the public, and likely of legislators too, advocates of marijuana legalization have been banging just as hard on alcohol as public health advocates have and with a particular focus on beer. This week, advocacy group Marijuana Policy Project posted a billboard in Denver right outside Mile High Stadium's home of the Broncos, charging the NFL to "Stop Driving Players to Drink," according to USA Today. The org hopes to influence the NFL to ditch "punishing players for using marijuana," an MPP spokesman told the paper, as the policy is now in conflict with laws in two states (Colo and Wash). Recall that the US Justice Dept recently announced that it would not enforce federal laws against marijuana in states that have legalized pot use. And in lobbying the NFL with this "visual pie-in-the-face to the big beermakers," in the paper's words, the MPP is also reminding hundreds of thousands of football fans that "a safer choice is now legal (here)." Both this ad and an earlier video spot outside a NASCAR event this summer specifically claim pot is "safer" than beer, and in long-time beer advertising strongholds to boot. The billboard salesman for Lamar Advertising told the paper he's "putting it up like we put up a campaign for any other company" and has no plans to remove it. (NASCAR ad was taken down quickly.)

As we've reported in beer marketer's Insights and Alcohol Issues Insights, MPP's "safer" claims have been riddled with targeting alcohol "use," not "abuse," just as many anti-alcohol advocates have done for years. And while science on the subject is just starting to ramp up, MPP insists "many people die from alcohol use" while "nobody dies from marijuana." Greater portions of the public seem to be agreeing. More young adults perceive "great risk" from or "disapprove" of having 1 or 2 drinks every day than smoking pot occasionally and many media outlets, particularly HuffPost, have been generally supportive of MPP's arguments. As the org and others continue to lobby for public and legislative support of legalized marijuana, the beer industry will need to watch how discussions about taxing and regulating pot affects beer/alc policy as well as how increased marijuana use affects sales. So far there has been no public response from the industry.


While off-premise scanner trends continue to improve slightly, on-premise trends for beer only got worse throughout summer while spirits and wine "both saw volume trends improve slightly," last 4 wks thru Aug 11, reported GuestMetrics. After beer volume fell 4.3% in Q1 and -2.1% in Q2, it dropped to -3.8% for 4 wks thru Jul 14, and fell further to -5.3% for 4-wks thru Aug 11. Unfortunately "the deterioration for beer is occurring across the board in casual dining restaurants, fine dining restaurants, and bars/clubs," pointed out ceo Bill Pecoriello. Beer volume fell steadily in each month this summer and was off 5.6% in casual restaurants, -2.6% in fine dining and had "sharpest decline" in bars/clubs, down 6.4% in most recent period. Ugh.

GuestMetrics also analyzed if any segment "held up better" thru mid-Aug, "which unfortunately wasn't the case," added Peter Reidhead, vp strategy and insights. Softness in premium light continued as it declined further from -8.9% for 4 wks thru mid-June to -11.3% thru mid-Jul to -12.6% thru mid-Aug. Premium regular and imports volume trends worsened this summer as well and were down 8.1% and 7.1% respectively for 4 wks thru Aug 11. The overall slowdown in restaurant traffic is even hurting red-hot craft segment as its volume slowed from +5.2% in mid-Jun to +4% mid-Jul, down to +1.9% in mid-Aug.
Cider continues to post very big growth on very small volume. Domestic cider volume up 96% in Q2, reports Lester Jones at Beer Inst, following 111% pop in Q1, 97% growth in Q4 2012. Meanwhile, cider imports jumped from just 14% growth in Q1 to 49% in Q2. All in, cider up 253,000 bbls, 87% for 6 mos. Reached 543,000 bbls for 6 mos. On pace to sell well over 1 mil bbls this yr. That’s while beer shipments down 2.5 mil bbls, 2.3% same period, recall. Scanner data includes cider with beer. Yr-to-date thru Aug 11, cider up 1.6 mil cases, 109% in IRI’s multi-channel + convenience database. That’s while overall volume off 7.4 mil cases 0.9%. Cider had 0.4 share of scanner volume, 0.6 share of $$ thru mid-Aug in IRI.

While MillerCoors has relied more on new brands than brand extensions in its approach to innovation in US, part-owner Molson Coors has taken different tack in some of its other key markets. And it has had some success, according to cfo Gavin Hattersley, who spoke at Barclay’s Back-to-School Conference today. In Canada, Molson Canadian had been eroding at high single-digit rate for yrs thru 2010. But intro of Canadian 67 and other extensions helped to get brand “stabilized” in last 2 yrs and Canadian now on “much better, firmer footing.” In UK, lead brand Carling got help from Zest extension. And Molson Coors having lots of success with lemonade and other extensions of Staropramen in Europe. Molson Coors also workin’ the above premium segment across key mkts. Just as it claims #1 craft position in US with Tenth and Blake, Molson Coors expanding footprint of craft brands in Canada. It has above premium portfolio growing 25%+ in UK and sells #1 on-premise cask ale there with Doom Bar. In US, Gavin highlighted continued Coors Light and above-premium growth, natch, but also said “unfortunately, we still have much work to do” on Lite.

In between qtrly reports, Constellation cfo Bob Ryder basically made case for his co without updated mkt info at Barclay’s Back-to-School this morn, yet still provided picture of Crown’s biz and growth potential. Crown at 49 share of volume in imports, with 6 of top 25 import brands, including #1 Corona at 100 mil cases and #3 (with a bullet) Modelo Especial at 43 mil cases and even # 8 Corona Light, almost 1 mil bbls, at 13 mil cases. Those 3 brands at 156 mil out of 170 mil total Crown cases last yr or 92%.

In praising continuity and capability of Crown mgt team, Bob tipped his hat to prexy Bill Hackett, noting that longtime leader Bill was “born to sell beer.” About “growth engine” Modelo Especial, Bob noted imminent arrival of Modelo Especial Chelada, noting that cheladas popular with Hispanics. Given Hispanic “affinity with authenticity” and affection for Modelo Especial brand, Constellation is “excited” about the oppy, since Bud & Bud Light the “only real players” in Chelada. AB sold over 3.3 mil cases, over $107 mil in retail sales of Bud and Bud Light Chelada yr-to-date thru Aug 11 in IRI multichannel + convenience, with Bud Light Chelada up 10% and Bud Chelada down 10%. Another big oppy that Constellation sees for Crown is draft, which accounted for less than 2 mil cases for Crown in fiscal yr ended Feb 2013 and was up 50%. So Crown only gets a little more than 1% of its biz from draft, compared to 10% for total industry. Bob called draft an “increasing emphasis” and a “significant longterm opportunity.”

Finally, Bob gave some slightly updated financial guidance. Pointing to margin enhancement oppys in beer, Bob said Crown margins could increase by 400-500 basis points and get to low-to-mid 30s operating margin by mid 2017. Across entire co, Constellation expects that it will generate $1 bil in free cash flow by 2017, up from $580 mil last yr. And it expects to reduce its debt from currently over 5x EBITDA to back under 4x within 2 years. Constellation is even talking about paying out a dividend for the first time. Stock is up 1.5% again today, very near all time high. Mkt cap is currently $10.55 bil, up from around $4 bil before ABI/Modelo deal announced. Not bad.