Beer Marketer's Insights
This is 1 of several mostly smaller MC deals in Illinois in recent yrs. Koerner will keep Orange & Blue name. Orange & Blue owner Alan Everette still owns MC distrib in Okla. Orange & Blue sold following death of another part-owner, Peer Pederson. This deal on the table for quite awhile, and went thru several twists and turns before finally closing. Interestingly, Orange & Blue competes against Gaudio in part of its territory. That’s the AB distrib that filed for Chapter XI this summer. Recall, bankruptcy court judge recently approved deal for Gaudio to sell to Skeff Dist closing in Sep. So within 1 mo, both AB and MC distribs in rural Illinois market will have changed hands.
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Beer volume up 1%, $$ up 3.3% for 4 weeks thru Aug 31 in Nielsen food/drug/mass/Walmart/$$, reported Goldman Sachs’ Judy Hong. “After five straight periods of volume declines earlier this yr, volumes moved into positive territory in July… and continued to grow this month.” All the growth is in high end, added Judy. MC volume down 2.4%, AB down 0.8%, while Crown and Boston Beer up double digits for mo. Boston Beer “slowed” to 12% growth in these channels for mo.
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09/08/2013
Tampa’s Pepin Distributing’s $12 Mil Expansion Despite Declining Sales; Eyes Craft Growth
Pepin Distributing “has completed a $12 million warehouse expansion,” mainly to “make room for craft beer,” Tampa Bay Times reports. Craft only 5.5% of the local Tampa market, but Pepin sees continued growth in segment. A decade ago Pepin spent $20 mil to expand warehouse. This time, warehouse space increased 56%, cooler space for kegs increased 64%, up to 334,000 total square footage – this brings overall capacity up to 1.3 mil cases, a 44% increase from previous 900k capacity. Currently “Pepin distributes beer from 19 different breweries,” writes Tampa Times; Pepin sales down 2% in 2013, was down 2% in 2012. Total revs $154 mil last year. Gotta note AB down 9%, 740,000 bbls in Fla last 4 yrs.
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09/08/2013
AB Investing in Ill; Grabs Exclusive At Wrigley, Replacing Old Style, Opens Bud Lab at U of I
AB may have to sell off its 30% stake in Chicagoland’s City Bev, but it’s investing serious $$ elsewhere in state. Chicago media hoppin’ with announcement that AB signed deal to be exclusive beer sponsor at Wrigley Field. Marketing agreement will give AB naming rights, exclusive use of Cubs logo in ads and lotsa stadium signage, including eventually a huge new scoreboard over right field. Pabst’s Old Style, closely affiliated with Cubs since 1950, ends its relationship. AB brands won’t be only brews available at stadium, but Cubs promising Old Style will be poured only thru end of this season. Brand decisions for next season still being made. Already speculation in Chi Trib that Goose Island will expand presence at Wrigley, possibly even with brand brewed solely for stadium. Also in Ill, AB will open a “state of the art data analytics center” at University of Illinois’ Research Park. Bud Lab will “focus on data analytics, developing data research and innovation to solve problems ranging from assortment optimization, social media and market trends to large scale data initiatives,” AB announced. Price tags for these projects not announced, but Wrigley deal’s gotta be big bucks and AB joins 15 other big companies (Dow, John Deere, etc) with projects at Research Park. Recall AB passed MillerCoors as #1 brewer in Ill in 2011. Last yr, AB had 38.5 share, about 1 share ahead of MC.
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As Boston stock continues to climb, hitting new all-time high of $227 today and reaching a $2.9 bil mkt cap, Bloomberg did big feature welcoming Boston Beer founder Jim ceo to its Billionaires Index with a “net worth above $1 billion.” “Having watched my stock price go up and down, it seems almost whimsical,” Jim told Bloomberg. “I remind people getting rich is life’s great booby prize. Any normal person would much rather be happy than rich…. Because this was something started out of passion, I’ve been able to sustain 30 years of growing the business with all the ups and downs.”
Value of Boston stock has multiplied by more than 10x since 2009. Jim joins Dick Yuengling on Bloomberg’s list. Dick has a “fortune valued at more than $2.7 billion,” sez Bloomberg Index. That’s about 2x what Forbes listed Dick at. And recall that Dick balked at Forbes’ valuation, noting that no one would pay him $1 bil for his co and he wouldn’t take it even if it was offered as he’s “not for sale.” Jim too has often downplayed the wealth creation aspect of his biz, often noting that stock prices can fluctuate pretty markedly as indeed Boston’s has. But both of these American mavericks have built personal fortunes that few among their much larger brewing brethren have attained.
Value of Boston stock has multiplied by more than 10x since 2009. Jim joins Dick Yuengling on Bloomberg’s list. Dick has a “fortune valued at more than $2.7 billion,” sez Bloomberg Index. That’s about 2x what Forbes listed Dick at. And recall that Dick balked at Forbes’ valuation, noting that no one would pay him $1 bil for his co and he wouldn’t take it even if it was offered as he’s “not for sale.” Jim too has often downplayed the wealth creation aspect of his biz, often noting that stock prices can fluctuate pretty markedly as indeed Boston’s has. But both of these American mavericks have built personal fortunes that few among their much larger brewing brethren have attained.
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09/08/2013
Heineken Up 30% in Walmart in 2013, Sez Dolf; Strongbow Nearly Doubling in Nielsen Lately; Pricing
Heineken sees big oppy with its biggest customers as beer biz has moved from 25% natl accounts in 2000 to 42% today and will be 50% “pretty soon,” noted prexy Dolf van den Brink in info-packed Sep 6 presentation to investors. Key case in point: Walmart, which is HUSA’s #1 off-premise customer. HUSA up 30% in nation’s largest retailer, growing at more than double overall category rate, said Dolf. Brand Heineken is up 25% and Dos Equis up 36% in Walmart YTD 2013. That follows 15% growth in Walmart last yr. Walmart is on mission to double its beer biz in next few yrs. Heineken has tripled its account team at Walmart and increased its investment by 5x there. But HUSA also focusing on other key accounts. Its #1 on-premise account, like for so many others, is Buffalo Wild Wings. HUSA volume was up 34% in Buffalo Wild Wings in 2012. And grocery chain HEB is #1 account for Dos Equis, where the brand is bigger than Corona or Heineken, according to Dolf. Dos has continued to grow at 20%+ clip in Tex, even tho by now it is big established brand there. Dos still has plenty of room to run, said Dolf, in part because it is only at 58% distribution nationally. What’s more, Dos brand had some gaps in pricing with Corona and Heineken, which it is gradually closing. Rev per hectolitre up 2.9% for Dos in Jun 2013, compared to Jun 2012.
Surprising growth spurt for Strongbow recently as HUSA zeroes in on cider oppy. It’s up 97% last 4 weeks thru Aug 10 in Nielsen, following 94% the period before that and 83% the 4 weeks before that. Strongbow had grown 28% per yr in 2011-2012 Nielsen data under Vermont Hard Cider, but dipped to teens earlier this yr as HUSA transitioned from a number of distribs. It has steadily picked up steam since, even with “no new marketing.” Dolf painted very bullish picture, noting that next yr will be major relaunch, including global package and “right marketing mix.” (Strongbow is #1 cider globally). “We are well-positioned to ignite Strongbow growth” within the cider category.
The other big % growth brand is Tecate Light, which is up 44% yr-to-date thru Aug 10 in Nielsen, while Tecate brand is up 1%. Compare to 2010 when Tecate regular down 12% and Tecate Light down 2%. Interestingly Tecate Light only about 15% of Tecate franchise nationally. Compare to Mexico where it’s 76% of Tecate volume. In Ariz, it’s 48% of Tecate franchise. Tecate Light’s distribution levels are still only in the low 20s.
The mothership Heineken is still 50-60% of HUSA’s biz. Heineken “improvement seen across all geographies,” Dolf showed. US depletions dropped 9% in 2009, including double-digit drops across most of West. But last yr brand Heineken flat, including 1% or greater gains in most of southeast. Brand Heineken rev per hectolitre up 0.7% in Jun 2013, compared to Jun 2012 as Heineken able to take price in many of its biggest mkts like Fla, Ill, NJ and Mass. But total HUSA rev per hectoliter up 0.6%, Dolf noted. That’s in part because aggressive growth of Tecate Light, priced at mainstream, creates downward mix shift. So HUSA intent on introducing brands at higher price points, such as Strongbow. Strongbow at a price index of 189 to leading mainstream brands, while Heineken at 145. While much of pricing in beer biz these days comes from mix shift, “any opportunity to take price we will,” Dolf added.
Surprising growth spurt for Strongbow recently as HUSA zeroes in on cider oppy. It’s up 97% last 4 weeks thru Aug 10 in Nielsen, following 94% the period before that and 83% the 4 weeks before that. Strongbow had grown 28% per yr in 2011-2012 Nielsen data under Vermont Hard Cider, but dipped to teens earlier this yr as HUSA transitioned from a number of distribs. It has steadily picked up steam since, even with “no new marketing.” Dolf painted very bullish picture, noting that next yr will be major relaunch, including global package and “right marketing mix.” (Strongbow is #1 cider globally). “We are well-positioned to ignite Strongbow growth” within the cider category.
The other big % growth brand is Tecate Light, which is up 44% yr-to-date thru Aug 10 in Nielsen, while Tecate brand is up 1%. Compare to 2010 when Tecate regular down 12% and Tecate Light down 2%. Interestingly Tecate Light only about 15% of Tecate franchise nationally. Compare to Mexico where it’s 76% of Tecate volume. In Ariz, it’s 48% of Tecate franchise. Tecate Light’s distribution levels are still only in the low 20s.
The mothership Heineken is still 50-60% of HUSA’s biz. Heineken “improvement seen across all geographies,” Dolf showed. US depletions dropped 9% in 2009, including double-digit drops across most of West. But last yr brand Heineken flat, including 1% or greater gains in most of southeast. Brand Heineken rev per hectolitre up 0.7% in Jun 2013, compared to Jun 2012 as Heineken able to take price in many of its biggest mkts like Fla, Ill, NJ and Mass. But total HUSA rev per hectoliter up 0.6%, Dolf noted. That’s in part because aggressive growth of Tecate Light, priced at mainstream, creates downward mix shift. So HUSA intent on introducing brands at higher price points, such as Strongbow. Strongbow at a price index of 189 to leading mainstream brands, while Heineken at 145. While much of pricing in beer biz these days comes from mix shift, “any opportunity to take price we will,” Dolf added.
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09/05/2013
Join Us Nov 11 in NYC for 20th Annual Beer Insights Seminar; Industry Thought Leaders on Tap
The annual Beer Insights Seminar is one of the industry's premier events. This year, we'll be in NYC once again at the Waldorf=Astoria on Nov 11. The program features a top-notch line-up of industry speakers and there's plenty of oppys to network with beer biz peers. On tap to speak: AB sales veep David Almeida, Heineken USA president Dolf van den Brink, new Pabst president and chief operating officer Kevin McAdams and Harpoon ceo Rich Doyle. We'll also have two panels. Consultant Bump Williams will speak with MillerCoors chief customer officer Kevin Doyle, Crown exec veep sales Bruce Jacobson and Boston Beer sales veep John Geist. The 2d will feature several leading data experts, GuestMetrics ceo Bill Pecoriello, IRI principal alc bev insights Dan Wandel and Nielsen sr veep Andrea Riberi. As always, BMI's Benj Steinman will present an overview of industry trends. The seminar is $1150 per person. Sign up for what's sure to be a jampacked and insightful day. Seating is limited. Click here for more info. Click here to register.
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09/05/2013
SABMiller Vigorously Defends its 3-Tier System in Rural South Africa; Welcome Back Graham!
Global brewers' embrace of US 3-tier system has always been tepid at best. Yet here comes SABMiller defending 3-tier in its home country. Recall what SABMiller's Graham Mackay told us about a year ago on 3-tier system: "Here it is and here it will stay." System has "a lot of advantages," such as that it's "highly entrepreneurial" and has strong "local connections.... Where it works well, it works spectacularly well." But: "brand owners can't" simply "change things to suit themselves when they want to or need to set up parallel systems or do dramatic things to get their brands to market, when they feel that their brands are not getting a fair shake." That part is "cumbersome." US system is "unique…. Certainly nowhere in the world is beer distribution anything like it."
Interestingly, SABMiller is vigorously defending distrib exclusive contracts in South Africa, with ex-Miller chief Norman Adami leading the charge, reports the Sunday Times. Most of SAB's beer goes through brewery-owned depots there, where retailers and re-sellers pick it up. But SAB also sells about 10% of its volume thru 14 distribs that service rural areas, have exclusive contracts, performance standards and get a 7% discount. Other distribs/retailers, who don't get the discount, complained to South African Competition Tribunal charging price discrimination. They want same discount and/or have the depot system across the country. That would threaten the smaller exclusive distribs and extending discounts would be big financial hit to SAB. Norman defended the relationships, in part set up in the 1980s as "empowerment opportunity in rural areas." Eight of the 14 distributor ships are black-owned. "We're saying there are 14 appointed distributors who risk losing their entire business, which they have developed over decades. As a corporate citizen we believe we haven't done anything wrong, and we feel we've got a moral obligation to these people." A decision is pending. By the way, Graham Mackay "resumed his role as non-executive chairman after treatment for a brain tumor," Bloomberg reports today. In addition to praising acting chairman John Manser, Graham said "I am delighted that the transition of the chief executive's management responsibilities to Alan Clark has gone so well."
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Exports by US brewers slowed from hot 23% gain in 2012, but still up 170,000 bbls, 8.3% to 2.2 mil bbls for 7 mos thru Jul, reports Beer Inst based on Commerce Dept data. That's still a fraction (about 15%) of beer imported to US, but US brewers makin' some inroads. Mexico is by far biggest buyer of US-made beer (almost 1/3 of total exports) and shipments south of the border up 82,000 bbls, 13% to 695,000 bbls for 7 mos. Canada is 2d-biggest mkt (another 20% or so), tho down 28,000 bbls, 6.5% yr-to-date. Volumes are small but lotsa outsized gains to several Central and South American mkts: Chile (+22%), Costa Rica (+20%) Honduras (+63%), Panama (+39%). But several big gains in Europe too: UK (+73%), Ireland (+126%), Sweden (+81%) Even far, far away Australia (+42%), China (+138%) and Japan (+21.5%) chipping in.
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Lotsa talk about positioning beer to appeal more to women, given beer's popularity gap with wine/spirits among half the population (and most of the shoppers). Interesting cut of Nielsen data from latest letter from consultant Bump Williams to his clients this week shows where women of different age groups do their spending. Turns out biggest beer outlet - c-stores - is both challenge and oppy, especially for millennial women. Women under 35 only spend about 9% of their $$ in c-stores, vs about 20% each in mass merchandisers and supercenters. Households without a female head spend whopping 27% of their dollars in c-stores. C-stores only slightly more popular among women 35-44, who spend 11% of their dollars there.
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