Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Earl Gaudio & Son, the almost 1-mil case AB distrib in Illinois that filed for Chapter XI bankruptcy protection last mo, has filed motion requesting court authorization of sale of its biz to contiguous AB distrib Skeff by August 31st. The price is “approximately $9 million,” according to court documents, including “3.5 times seller’s total Gross Profit” for distribution rights (based on trailing 12-mo sales thru Jul 31st). And that “will satisfy all secured claims held against the Debtor in full and leave excess funds available.” Debtor “extensively marketed its assets” and “received numerous expressions of interest and also multiple letters of intent” but “at this time the highest and best offer has been submitted by the purchaser.”

Debtor seeks to close by Aug 31, “because if it fails to do so, the Purchaser has indicated that it may seek to make a downward adjustment to the purchase price,” say court documents filed last week. But here’s an update: bankruptcy court will hold hearing next week and then there’s period for objections, so closing likely to be delayed until Sep sometime, INSIGHTS understands.    

As rapid as Yuengling’s rise was in OH, it’s also falling back to earth quickly, and starting to level out out at shares similar to other recent launches. Yuengling fell almost ½ mil cases and 24.5% in IRI multichannel data yr-to-date thru Jul 14 in OH. Lost 1.6 share down to 4.2. Losses “moderating,” coo Dave Casinelli told INSIGHTS, who noted “huge bullseye” on Yuengling’s back after its big initial splash. Yuengling would be even nationally other than continued falloff in OH, Dave said. But Yuengling “not overly concerned” about OH and will “still sell over 5 million cases” there this yr.
Can’t recall another AB distrib where equity manager has changed 2x in less than 1 yr. But Peter Deane, prexy and equity mgr of AB’s biggest Connecticut distrib Dichello, recently left the co. Dichello about 6.4 mil cases. Peter had been there 15 yrs or more. Recall, former equity manager Ed Crowley had just recently sold his half stake back to the Dichello family after over 20 yrs. Peter had been successor manager and so became equity manager upon Ed’s departure. So there’s a lot of turmoil at the top of this distrib in last 12 mos, where family has reportedly gotten more involved.
Seeing that Saatchi & Saatchi is slated to handle Miller Fortune reminded that big ad agency merger between Omnicom and Publicis will create overlap among top 2 brewers, presuming it goes thru. Recall, Omnicom’s BBDO recently named lead agency for Bud Light. But Publicis unit Saatchi is agency for Miller Lite, MGD and High Life as well as Fortune. Usually same agency doesn’t handle direct competitors’ accounts, and with AB having just named BBDO and bigger potential budget, plus weakness of Miller legacy brands, Saatchi accounts could be under pressure. ABI “said the merger isn’t a concern. But it’s Miller Lite that’s worth paying attention to,” wrote Ad Age.
MC said our report (in Beer Marketer’s INSIGHTS) that Fortune “much delayed” was not accurate. “Our plan was always to launch it in Q1 2014, once it was determined to be a go,” noted MC communications veep Pete Marino, adding that Redd’s and Third Shift “were always going first.” Sources had told us that MC took a long time deciding Fortune was a go. Then too, it is reportedly aimed at BLP, which debuted in early 2012. MillerCoors plans for Fortune launch will reportedly be featured at this fall’s MC distrib conference. In response to industry critics cited in Ad Age, Pete noted that “today’s consumers are seeking more flavor variety and brand choice than ever before. And there is a desire for relatively higher ABV products as well. The key word being relatively as nearly all the volume in the industry is under 8% ABV.” Editor’s note: Interesting that so far AB’s higher ABV products have attracted little attention from critics, but Ad Age based article on possible risks (to AB and MC) before Fortune even intro’d.
MillerCoors “is answering Bud Light Platinum with its own boozier line extension called Miller Fortune,” wrote Ad Age late last week, breaking story of launch. “And the brewer is kicking up the alcohol content” to almost 7%. There’s a “big time” mktg push coming, said memo to distribs. The brand is broadly aimed at millennial males “but it’s got a sweet spot with Hispanics and African Americans,” MC veep innovation David Kroll told Ad Age.

The higher alcohol and the mktg push already led to a follow up Ad Age piece this morn about the “risk” of “raising watchdog’s ire.” It cited the usual suspects, i.e. Alcohol Justice and David Jernigan. “It is beginning to look like we are going down the road of the old malt liquor wars of the 90s,” said Alcohol Justice’s Michael Scippa. Jernigan asserted that marketers use code words like “edge” since they can’t advertise strength. In other MC news, MillerCoors and union settled at 11th hour last week averting possible strike.
Join us for the 20th annual Beer Insights Seminar, Monday November 11 at the Waldorf=Astoria in NYC. You won't want to miss this year’s event. Just added: a unique panel that will include insights into industry data from several leading data co’s, including GuestMetrics ceo Bill Pecoriello, IRI principal bev alc insights, Dan Wandel and Nielsen senior veep Andrea Riberi, moderated by BMI exec editor Eric Shepard. They join a top-flight program that includes AB sales vp David Almeida and Heineken USA president Dolf van den Brink, as well as outspoken Harpoon ceo Rich Doyle. Also on tap: a panel moderated by consultant Bump Williams including MillerCoors chief customer officer Kevin Doyle, Crown exec veep sales Bruce Jacobson and Boston Beer sales veep John Geist. As always, BMI's Benj Steinman will present an overview of industry trends. More speakers will be announced in coming weeks. The seminar is $1150 per person. Sign up for what's sure to be a jampacked and insightful day. Seating is limited. Click here for more info. Click here to register.
We should have been more skeptical of Wall St Journal report on Mich brewers and distribs (see last Express) when reporter (actually more like an intern) said beer biz nationally doing “incredibly well.” Turns out his major theme – that Mich distribs holding up key reforms to give craft brewers flexibility – was totally inaccurate. Mich Beer & Wine Wholesalers Assn actually supports 3 key reforms: raising microbrewery cap and increasing the number of brewpubs and retail sites that brewers can operate. Indeed, distribs and craft brewers met to hammer out that compromise, in place of sprawling reform recommendations made by state agency, earlier this yr. Bill did not get done before session ended, but likely will move in fall, we understand. What’s more, WSJ reporter talked with MBWWA and was told of distrib support before the article/video ran. But he apparently had his own story to tell.
Interesting analysis of Heineken’s US scan data by Bernstein’s Trevor Stirling in advance of 1st half report next week. Global Heineken “weakness expected,” according to Trevor, but “positive momentum” should return in 2d half. Here in US, HUSA volume “ticked up recently” to 8.3% in 3 mos to Jul in Nielsen foodstores, said Trevor. HUSA growth led by Dos Equis up 274,000 cases, 21% and Tecate up 99,000 cases, 6% (including hot Tecate Light presumably). While Heineken up 2%, 69,000 cases, that’s essentially offset by Amstel down 11% and Heineken Light down 6%. Dutch brands about half of mix with Heineken at 38%, Amstel at 3% and Heineken Light at 6%. Dos Equis was 15% of HUSA volume, Tecate about 19% of volume. Others almost 20%. Big others growth is presumably Beers of Mexico and Strongbow.
Fortune today released its 2013 Executive Fantasy League starting lineup and ABI ceo Brito ascended to ceo. Meaning Fortune mag sez Brito the best ceo around. Brito dubbed “master of M&A…obsessed with making AB InBev more efficient” and “truly global.” Long accompanying Fortune profile of Brito is mix of flattery and some telling quotes/anecdotes. Lotsa space given to Brito’s attention to detail, no-nonsense style and results. Ex-AB prexy Dave Peacock offers that “the thing I most respect about Brito is he does what he says he’s going to do,” and even compares Brito to Lincoln: “He’s Abe Lincoln, only shorter, bald and Brazilian.” Current St Lou brewmaster Pete Kraemer praises more open communication at AB since they “tore the walls down” at HQ. Current NA prexy Luiz Edmond sums up ABI’s dominant culture of constant performance evaluation. “There will always be people who don’t like it, especially the ones who were just entitled to be there for historic reasons, the ones who were not performing. Our processes, our systems do not allow for that. They do not allow you to hide in a nice room, stay for the whole day. No.”

Fellow Brazilian and key ABI investor Jorge Pablo Lemann acknowledges ABI’s cost-cutting culture, but noted: “I wouldn’t call it a Brazilian management style. It has been amalgamated by a bunch of Brazilians, but we have copied most of the things we know from the US, quite frankly,” citing Goldman Sachs and GE as models. Jorge echoes Luiz and everyone else who has commented about the ABI culture: “You are always running, always close to a limit. You are working very hard and being evaluated all the time. People either like it or don’t like it.” Brito is typically blunt, referring to detailed sales report at an early morning mtg in Sao Paolo: “This is very much our company, this sheet. We like metrics, tons of numbers.” Another revealing anecdote: about 10 yrs ago, during Brazilian energy crisis, govt demanded bizzes make sharp reductions in energy use or face big fines. Consultant group and Brito himself hit the bars/grocery stores to show vendors how to cut back: “The ice cream guys, they didn’t do that, so they got screwed big time,” Brito sez. Fortune allows a few negative notes -- that ABI has “failed to revive” Bud in US and analysts have “mocked its latest effort” -- but only a few amidst portrait of inevitable winner, or as title dubs Brito: “(Brew) master of the Universe.”