Beer Marketer's Insights
MC’s response: While MC “fully supports the self-regulation program,” ABI’s complaint about Coors Light can “is frivolous and an inappropriate use of NAD’s resources,” Jonathan Stern, dir of media relations, told INSIGHTS this morn. “All of the statements regarding the can either clearly are intended as acceptable marketing puffery or have been proven through extensive testing as accurate,” he added.
Testy MC Labor Situation in Milwaukee; Extension on Brewery Workers’ Contract Ends Tonight
In candid conversation with AB mktg veep Paul Chibe, he conceded that “it’s not a good trend” this yr for big mainstream light beer brands, but to think there’s some “great acceleration” downwards, or a “change in trajectory, I don’t see it,” he told INSIGHTS. Lots explained by “unique pressure” and “singular events” in 2013 including weather, payroll tax etc. At same time, there is long term shift in consumer tastes (towards more innovation, flavor and variety), he agreed, but that’s not new this year. There is also some “cannibalization in our portfolio,” he acknowledged, with all of AB’s line extensions this yr. With each one, base Bud Light “takes a nick” that could be a couple of tenths of share, according to Paul. “That’s expected. Do we like it? No.” Recall, Bud Light brand down 4.7% in 2d qtr, AB reported. If Bud Light were to be down that much in a yr, that would be nearly a 2 mil bbl dropoff. Hard to make that up.
But so far, AB apparently sees base Bud Light losses as acceptable or even necessary tradeoff to bring these innovations to mkt in biggest way possible (i.e. with Bud Light name). And Paul maintains Bud Light brand remains healthy: AB sees “consistently improving” brand health measures for Bud Light in tracking studies, including on such key measurements as “awareness,” “consideration,” “top 3” and “favorite.” “We feel good about where we are.” Bud Light brand family at or near all-time high in share. Indeed, Paul made case for base Bud Light’s “resilience” that it lost as little as it has, “given the amount of innovation and the external environment.”
Spending on Bud Light and all major AB brands is up this year, sez Paul. To recent wholesaler complaints that AB has too few ads on Bud Light, Paul responded that AB “leveraging assets for efficiency” and “we pushed it a little too much… the pendulum swung too far.” So more executions coming. Recall, ABI only increased North American mktg and sales spend in low single digits in 1st half, tho it has guided for a mid-to-high single digit increase for full yr. Cfo Felipe Dutra blamed that on “calendarization” and suggested therefore that AB spending would heavy up in 2d half. (MC “softening” spending in 2d half, said ceo Tom Long.) Tho Paul wouldn’t talk about areas AB might place special emphasis on, football would be a pretty good guess. This fall’s Bud Light football executions will be from agency Translation. Ads from new agency BBDO not yet in mix.
Other interesting points from Paul: INSIGHTS noted that Michelob Ultra remained up solidly in scan, up 4.7% yr-to-date thru Jul 14 in IRI all outlet. Why? “It’s had a focused and consistent message,” said Paul, that’s been “aspirational from day one, building a premium image” without a lot of discounting. This yr, avg Ultra prices up about 4% in scan data. With the Ritas off to such a flying start, INSIGHTS hears there’s more coming. Paul wouldn’t comment on specific plans, but did note that Rita a platform that AB “can extend” with “two big flavors” so far. Plus consumers are “variety seeking.” So logically there will be more down the road.
Meanwhile in its home country, SABMiller finds itself on opposite side of antitrust argument. In case going back to 2004, an independent distrib sued alleging it was at an economic disadvantage because it was not offered same discounts and rebates SAB’s distributors received. This week, a Competition Commission ruled it is “common cause” that SAB is a “profit maximizing firm” that can “exert market power on pricing decisions,” reported BDlive. SAB had 97 share in South Africa during yrs this case covers, 2004-07 and still over 90 share. Testimony this week from former Competition Comm economist also charged indie distribs “were further undermined” when they were not able to provide product to retailers “because of exclusive arrangements between SAB and its own distributors.” SAB maintains it has “not engaged in any anticompetitive behavior,” and Norman Adami (SAB’s South African chief) recently warned that if co is forced to “scrap its territorial allocation and extend discounts to all” distribs, “it could opt to cancel its contracts with its 14 appointed distributors and set up its own depots,” reported Mail & Guardian.
On another front, the US Justice Dept has joined SEC investigation into allegation that AB InBev’s India Int’l Private Ltd bribed foreign officials, reported Wall Street Journal. ABI “has never been cited in other countries,” but “more” co’s “are reportedly giving into bribery tactics to surmount India’s rigid regulations,” noted WSJ.
In Oh, Heidelberg’s Ron Newsad said Wal-Mart can’t discount directly, but has offered “mail-in rebates and $10 store gift cards -- paid by the beer companies -- when shoppers buy beer cross-promoted” with other items. Also, Wal-Mart “dedicated to finding space for beer at any opportunity,” said Ron, including 4th of Jul mid-aisle displays. In Mobile, Ala, Gulf Distrib’s Amy Baldwin told Bloomberg Wal-Mart “redesigning stores to have adult beverages in a more appealing position in front of the store near produce.” Another sign of Wal-Mart thirst to sell more alc bevs: it now “promotes alcohol in its circulars, reversing a previous ban,” according to Bloomberg. Ain’t just Wal-Mart putting more emphasis on beer/alc bevs. Dollar Store General recently told investors it’s expanding alc bev sales across chain and “this year the company plans to sell alcohol in as many as 6,600 of its almost 11,000 stores, Bloomberg reported, up from 3,700 in summer of 2012.
Distribution Key Driver Analyzing performance of over 10,000 brands for 1st half of yr, GuestMetrics found “changes in distribution are a critical factor” in driving share gains and losses on-premise. “While overall beer sales in on-premise during the first half of 2013 are flat,” and volume is down 3.5%, “it would be incorrect to think they dynamics in the space are even remotely static,” said prexy Brian Barrett. Just 2 brands, Angry Orchard from Boston Beer and Budweiser Black Crown had double-digit gains in distribution on-premise, Jan-Jun, found GM, (+15 points, +11 points respectively). Next best gainers were Goose Island, Redd’s Apple Ale, Coors Batch 19, Coors Third Shift, Leinie’s Summer Shandy and Lagunitas IPA. All brands aimed at consumers drinking craft and looking for fuller and different flavor. All of those brands, “with the exception” of Lagunitas, “100%” of their share gain was from increased distribution. Lagunitas growth was “slightly more balanced,” with 30% of its gain driven by increased sales per point of dist, noted report. Brands with largest declines: Amstel Light, Miller Genuine Draft, Bass and Newcastle.
CBA booked $2 mil in operating income following loss in Q1. For 6 mos, CBA still $800K in red. And while margins improved in Q2, still quite thin vs that other large publicly-owned craft brewer, Boston Beer. CBA boosted gross margin slightly to 30.5 in Q2, operating margin to 4.1. Boston’s gross margin in Q2 was 53.6, operating margin 17.7. At CBA, lower capacity utilization – contract biz dwindling as CBA ended brewing beer for Goose Island – modest price increase (CBA expects 1-2% for the yr), cost hikes tracking rev increases and thinner pub margins continue to pressure earnings. CBA still expects depletions to be up 7-11% for 2013; a bunch of new brands/collaborations should add to current momentum. More details on CBA’s Q2 in our sister publication Craft Brew News.
More Color from Fuhrer Suit
MC’s actions violate Pennsy law which bars conditions MC suggested simply because Fuhrer sells competing products, distrib argues. MC conditions are also “unreasonable restraint of trade” and are “tortious interference” with Fuhrer’s existing contract with AB. In effect, MC “demanding that Fuhrer either cease selling AB products or carve up the company into pieces it would no longer control.” So it asked for injunction stopping MC from using Fuhrer-AB relationship to withhold craft/specialty MC brands, plus damages. At same time, Fuhrer filed separate action with American Arbitration Assn, given requirements of distrib agreement, even tho Fuhrer believes arbitration clause does not apply to this issue.

