While several large craft brewers shifted biz away from wine & spirits distribs in recent yrs in some mkts, signs of that trend reversing more recently. Recall that Deschutes and Greenbush went statewide in Ill with Wirtz and Wirtz also picked up Ballast Point for Ill and Minn. Then too, Surly shifted from self-distribution to Johnson Bros in home state Minn. More recently, biggest wine/sprits distrib in US, Southern Wine & Spirits boosted its craft cred in Nevada by hiring craft vets Sam Merritt and Russell Gardner. Sam sold Brooklyn's beers for a decade before setting up Civilization of Beer consultancy in NYC. Russ was head brewer for Joseph James Brewing in Las Vegas and ran beer program for Public House at The Venetian. Each will focus on different aspects of key on-premise biz in Vegas, Sam as Director of On Premise, Russ focusing on staff training. These hires are an indication of "SW&S investment and our commitment to growing and maintaining the integrity of the craft and import business in Nevada," SW&S Nevada's sr veep of beer Kevin McCracken told CBN. (Kevin's previous beer experience includes selling Coors, Heineken, Guinness in the state.) "Sam and Russell are veterans with great reputations. They will be tremendous enhancements to our ongoing desire to stay ahead of pace in these innovative and evolving categories." SW&S Nevada, which already carries Sierra Nevada, New Belgium, NAB and other crafts, as well as Corona, is "committed and dedicated" to expanding our beer division in Nevada. Overall, beer pretty modest part of Southern's overall biz, but significant in Nevada and South Carolina, Kevin points out.

Tho not there yet, Las Vegas is "becoming craft centric," he says. "Many of the best places in world to dine reside here in Las Vegas. With the expectation of world class dining experiences comes the need to progress and innovate in all categories, including beer. The import and craft categories provide endless options in support of this effort." Go back a decade and large "domestic beers owned the category" on casino floors. "Imports were limited to Corona and Heineken and craft options and focus were for the most part non-existent." But as gaming is no longer sole focus at casinos (as detailed in NY Times recently), "a new generation has asked for and brought new demands in lifestyle, dining and overall experience requirements. As a result, our casino customers are absolutely becoming more involved in craft and import brand offerings to satisfy these demands." In fact, tourism actually "makes the import and craft evolution easier to support," Kevin believes, "in the sense that when people come to Vegas, they come to vacation and reward themselves. Import and craft beers do a wonderful job in supporting rewarding occasions, telling great stories about their origin and creating tremendous memories." So tho Vegas is no Portland, "we aspire to one day be a leading city in craft and import beer and we're capable of making that happen."

One rap against spirits & wine distribs over the years has been capability of handling draft, especially critical to craft. But Kevin sez SW&S up to the challenge. "Draft is a unique function of the selling process for craft beer, no doubt." It's no longer a matter of "just hooking up a keg and watching it go. I don't think that any one distributor or class of distributors really owns the knowledge," and that knowledge/training "not limited to domestic beer distributors," Kevin believes. "SW&S has an internal draft department set up the same way as traditional beer wholesalers."

What about recent moves by craft brewers to sign on with wine and spirits distribs? It's all about knowledge/ training/education, and wine and spirits distribs' experience with innovation and handling multiple skus, he suggests. "Innovation and the number of varieties of wine and spirits brands offered now require that spirits and wine distributors offer a training platform to educate sales forces in a different manner to effectively support our retail customers. That ability to educate a sales force is becoming more and more desirable to the craft supplier."

Asked about challenges to craft going forward, Kevin echoes recent comments from BA and craft brewer execs. Top of mind is "keeping the integrity of the category by making sure we're careful to research the brands we support to ensure we are doing what's best for our customer and for the category. Internal and external education is paramount in this effort. If you're committed to education and the quality and integrity of presentation to the consumer, you're committed to the craft and import movement." Gotta figure that to extent SW&S wins with craft in Vegas/Nevada it'll be looking to expand offerings in 34 other states that it serves.

After posting 13.5% shipments gain across Craft Brew Alliance's 3 brand families, CBA execs repeatedly expressed "confidence" in its portfolio strategy on conference call today. Cfo Mark Moreland believes these Q2 results "present a much more accurate picture" of CBA's future. Prexy of commercial operations Andy Thomas considered this 3-month period "validation of the confidence underpinning our guidance" of depletions growth of 7-11% for the full yr. Indeed, shipments gain "buoyed" YTD trend to 5.6%, Andy said, led by "fastest growing and now largest brand family" Kona. Longboard Lager depletions still up 11%, and total Kona depletions +23%, aided by success in "5 newly launched midwest states" and continued health in home-market Hawaii. CBA shipped over 126K bbls of Kona brands in the first 6 mos of 2013, about 6K bbls more than its Widmer Bros brands. Widmer's 1% depletions growth in the qtr improved 6-mo depletions trend to -4%. Hefe declines and "volume attrition" from discontinuing Drifter accounted for lion's share of volume drop still, while Alchemy Ale intro, Rotator IPA series, variety packs (+14%) and seasonals (+15%) are helping turn trends around. Redhook depletions grew 14% in Q2, lifting YTD trend into double-digit range, +10%. Tho shipments were ahead of depletions across each brand family for the quarter, depletions continued to outpace shipments for 6 mos, as CBA expects they will for the rest of the yr, thanks to supply chain improvements in Q1.

In Q&A, analysts pressed for comment on craft competition, plus lots of talk about effects of newsy Redhook collabs and Omission potential. Current beer marketers are "witnessing a transformation," Andy said, in "by far the most competitive market I've ever experienced." But CBA can go places "some of the smaller guys can't," like all 925 Buffalo Wild Wings locations, for example. Recall, Redhook Game Changer followed Redhook Audible Ale. That collab with Dan Patrick launched at Superbowl continues apace behind lead-brand Long Hammer (+13% in Q2). And soon, KCCO Black Lager collab with social media maverick The Chive will enter the mix too. "To say early results" of Game Changer intro "are encouraging is an understatement," Andy noted. He also pointed to the Chive's 3.5-mil daily visitors and the site's choice of Redhook for KCCO as a "solid endorsement of Redhook's strategy to appeal" to new craft drinkers. Ceo Terry Michaelson noted the "extra buzz last week" around Omission brands after the FDA announced it'll be following international standard on "gluten free" labeling and use a 20 ppm (parts per million) threshold. Omission has grown to 3% of CBA volume, +10% in Q2. But CBA must wait for TTB action before labeling Omission "gluten free" in all markets.

CBA's financials still lagging volume stats, after big spends early in year on renovations at Woodinville pub and plant. For the quarter, $2-mil in operating income is solid improvement over 2012, but still $800K in the red for 6 mos. Gross margins gained slightly to 30.5, operating margin grew to 4.1. Capacity utilization ticked up closer to 70% for 6 mos, but still well below 80% utilization last year. On call, Andy explained that Goose Island contract that ended last yr opened up capacity in eastern breweries, which are filling up quick to keep pace with +40% trends on that side of the country. And while the co has already contracted a small amount of bbls for a small brewer in the NW, Terry doesn't see contract as a "strategy driver." Instead, the co is "using it in the short-term...to improve our margin output."

by Nestor While craft continues to do exceedingly well, the two large domestic (okay, foreign domestic) brewers are losing volume and share, at what look to be increasing rates of decline.

Should craft brewers care? Or exult? Let's discuss.

Let's start with a bit more comprehensive view of ABI's and MillerCoors' woes in the US in recent years. True, to some extent, the big boys have been a victim of some exogenous factors--the downturn in the US economy (less disposable income for many young adults) and lousy weather (let's not go there). But their volumes have also been hurt by their discretionary decisions to raise prices on their premium and subpremium brands ahead of inflation in the midst of a recession (and while spirits companies and vintners were basically holding on pricing); to diminish the price differentials between premiums and subpremiums by raising subpremium prices more aggressively; and, overall, decreasing emphasis on and support for subpremiums.

What have the results been and why should craft brewers care?

Well, the major players did well after the acquisition of A-B and the Miller-Coors merger as gains from cost-cutting easily overshadowed volume softness. But you can cut costs for only so long. At some point, you have to increase volume…or be forced to cut people, close plants, and such. These kind of activities are very bad for internal morale and also tend to make analysts start sniffing for rodents.

Proceeding, then, to why craft brewers might care. They should care because one of the roles the mainstream brewers have played historically is to bring young adults into the beer market by offering them relatively inexpensive, easy to drink subpremium ("popular-priced") beers. But with the mainstream brewers' decision to de-emphasize and raise prices on their popular brands, entry-level drinkers are increasingly beginning their beverage alcohol lives with more cost-friendly wines and especially liquors.

Will some of the young people who start with inexpensive vodka wind up drinking your Imperial IPA? Sure. Eventually. But a lot fewer young adults are entering the market with Busch, Keystone Light, etc ; and so a lot fewer young people will quickly graduate to "Better Beer."

So crafts may not want to wish for the demise of ABI and MC… or at least their rapid demise. It's sort of a John Donne ("any man's death diminishes me because I am involved in mankind") moment.

(By the way, the situation is already quite a bit worse than the volume numbers suggest. An increasing amount of malt beverage volume is being accounted for by non-beers like Lime-a-Rita, Twisted Tea, and Mike's. Which means that beer performance in recent years has been a lot worse than the numbers suggest. Will young adults move from these products to beers as readily as they move from Natural Light to Bud Light and beyond? I doubt it. Will the major brewers invent more and more of these products to make up for their mainstream losses? You bet.)

Well that's where we are today. While craft will likely continue to grow in any circumstance, a marked decline in beer volume will make craft growth more difficult by developing fewer future craft drinkers. What happens tomorrow?

Well, maybe more of the same. That's the best case in the short term.

But the big guys will have another choice. And that will be to stop raising prices in order to get volume and capacity utilization up. Such a move will actually help craft in the long run by bringing more potential drinkers into the category. But in the short/medium term, this could be a real drag on pricing and profitability.

So what can crafts do about this? Well, to some extent, not much. But this does give crafts another reason to do something that we recommended last year and that increasing numbers of crafts are doing. And that is to offer starter crafts that will provide additional beer category entrance points for new consumers. How will these be priced? Positioned? Looking forward to finding out.

Game Changer, made by Redhook for Buffalo Wild Wings chain is off to hot start since Jul 15 debut in 925 locations across US. "Yes, we're really pleased with the results," ceo/prexy Sally Smith noted on 2d qtr conference call this week. Sales have "exceeded" expectations and in its first 2 wks of sales, Game Changer "is the fourth most popular draft beer at company-owned locations," out of around 30 beers on tap, she noted. To push trial though, Game Changer was intro'd at "a discounted craft price," around $3.99 for a pint and $5 for 22-oz (prices can vary by location). It will be interesting to watch if brand will sell as well at a higher price point or remain priced below other craft beers. BWW likes brand because it "fits really nicely between domestic and craft and at nice value for our guests, so they get a craft quality beer at a mid-price," added Sally. That echoes comments from BWW's bev innovation dir Patrick Kirk, who told Technomic blog earlier this month that "The goal (for Game Changer) was not to be fully in the craft camp but to be a step up from domestics." Game Changer is 4.6% ABV because "that's what our guests are demanding," said Patrick. He sees "a movement toward craft beers coming back down to be more sessionable," which fits particularly well with BWW's customer base. "If you're going to stay for a game from kick-off to the end, you can't really drink beers with 6% or 7% ABV throughout the game," he noted. "It's not possible from a responsible service and consumption standpoint, as well as from flavor perspective and cost perspective." Given that craft accounts for 45% of beer roster at sports-driven chain, will it continue to be dominant choice at BWW if their customers are looking for a beer they can sip for a few hours?

Victory Brewing will open its second brewpub in Kennett Square, PA, following its on-site restaurant at its Downingtown facility. Victory at Magnolia will be a 250-seat brewpub with a 5-bbl brewhouse for specialty offerings in 8000+ sq-ft space on the first floor of a luxury apartment building. Plans call for a mid-2014 opening. Co-founder Bill Covaleski told CBN that the co's new brewing facility in nearby Parkesburg is nearing completion, will go thru system testing during the next couple months and will begin hosting tours for distrib partners and key retailers in October. Full-time brewing will follow closely.

Victory has seen big success this year with seasonal Summer Love, +37% so far in 2013 and has pushed Whirlwind Wit and Sunrise Weiss out of 12oz bottles. Belgian-style tripel Golden Monkey has been growing nicely alongside softness in lead-brand Hop Devil IPA and Prima Pils. And tho its lead IPA is down 2%, Victory has been working on a draft-only IPA it's calling Ranch for the last 18 months. The "brewmaster-run company" has been experimenting with different recipes for Ranch, sending them out to key accounts, and watching how each incarnation sells compared to the last. "Sending 48 halves into metro NY and watching it go in 6 days," compared to 12 for another version, provides "one barometer," but Bill says the brewery's on-site restaurant customers have provided helpful feedback too. Eventually, a final version of Ranch IPA will make its way into Victory's 12-oz bottle line-up.

Victory also just launched sales in Alabama, its first market expansion since hitting Florida in 2010. The co went with International Wine and Craft Beer, a mostly wine house in 'Bama that's digging into craft. Bill explained that Stone Brewing's decision to go into the same previously craft-light house at the same time, "made something out of nothing" by helping IWCB earn some serious craft-cred all at once. IWCB's website indicates it sells a number of smaller import brands, including those from 12 Percent Imports, and a handful of small US craft. Victory's sales veep Steve German is touring potential new markets that have been "ringing our doorbell for years now," Bill said; looks like Ariz is up next.

As if IPAs needed any more help, today is IPA Day, the social media-focused "holiday" established to spread awareness of craft's leading style. To honor the occasion our way, we took a look at how IPAs are doing in Symphony IRI Group data for grocery stores, YTD thru July 14. Total craft IPAs are up 36% by $$ in the key channel, to over $128 mil. IPAs grabbed another 3.2 share of segment dollars to over 21. Volume up slightly less, +33% and gained just under 3 share. The top 8 IPA brands in SIG (Sierra Torpedo, NBB Ranger, Deschutes Inversion, Lagunitas IPA, Bell's Two Hearted, Stone IPA, Dogfish Head 60 Minute, Redhook Long Hammer) were collectively up 29% in both dollars and cases. These brands were 41% of IPA dollars and 45% of cases, but 36% of dollar-growth and 41% of volume-growth. They represented slightly smaller portions of share-growth.

There's no place like home for San Diego's Green Flash Brewing. Total depletions up 37% YTD, founder Mike Hinkley told CBN this week, but its home market is still up 30% and GF's "highest growth item is our flagship" to boot. West Coast IPA draft +52% YTD in San Diego. With so much press about "struggling flagships," Mike said, he keeps close tabs on the brand, which is still 50% of Green Flash biz. But these trends suggest to him that "the market is expanding still," particularly "the number of accounts...in our home market." Over 80% of depletions so far in 2013 in existing markets, and 35% out on the East Coast, +39% YTD. In fact, NY, Fla and Pennsy are GF's top markets after Calif, so its Virginia Beach facility (equipment's ordered: identical to a bunch of new equipment in San Diego too) will come just in time. The Calif brewery can pump out about 100K bbls if needed, but currently running at 60K-bbl/yr rate, just about where Mike expects to finish out 2013, +35-40% over 2012. So Green Flash is "adding about the same amount of barrels" as in 2012, Mike said, "but it seems a little less frantic" than the co's +80% speed last yr.

Just because it's still hot at home, doesn't mean Green Flash is staying there. After its recent launch in Indiana, GF announced that it'll likely be available in 48 states by yr-end. Recall, when Green Flash opens a new market, it focuses on "uber-crafty accounts," sales VP Jim Kenny explained, to ensure its beers are available to "craft beer consumers across the country." GF beers are now available in 42 states and DC, with Mich and Minn in-process. Deals in the Dakotas, Wyo and Utah should be done in Q4, leaving only Hawaii and West Va. Aiding in this territory expansion, Green Flash has hired 14 sales folks around the country, almost half of the 35 employees that have joined the team in the last yr and a half and have brought total employee count to 65.

The company is also shifting around its portfolio for 2014, "as a result of how the market's changed," Mike explained. Next year, GF will slim down so West Coast IPA will be the only yr-round brand available in 12oz 4-pks, 22oz singles and on draft. It'll be joined by Hop Head Red and Double Stout in 12oz bottles (eliminating the pkg for Rayon Vert), and Imperial IPA and Le Freak in 22oz - bombers represent the biggest slimming, from 7 brands available yr-round in the pkg to just 3. Just 4 brands will be available yr-round on draft, while the seasonal rotation will shift from 4 to 3 beers: Palate Wrecker, a nameless Imperial Rye IPA (which debuted as a "huge hit" in this yr's Hop Odyssey series), and Green Bullet triple IPA debuting next month. In general, the co will "move to more rotating, one-time deliveries," particularly for the Hop Odyssey series, which will return next year on draft and in 22oz bottles, with some beers returning for their second HO appearance and others brand new. These 6 beers share a single UPC and will land at distribs once and only once, "giving the customer lots of variety and choices and something new, but making it really efficient" by "reducing full time SKU count to simplify distribution," Mike said.

Mike On New Competitor "Giving Away Kegs" And while new breweries and new brands have made the market "way more crowded," Mike's also seen evidence that there are "competitors that do not understand our industry." Namely, he's heard from his sales force plus "a couple sources" that "a new San Diego brewery" is "giving away kegs at retail." Tho the move can hurt pricing of craft overall, Mike views the news as a sign that some brewery startups aren't quite as biz savvy as they'll need to be to survive, since "giving away free kegs" is "destroying their brand, not us." So he advised his sales team to "stay the course" and "when that company goes out of business, we'll go to their bankruptcy and we'll buy some souvenirs."

Mighta been "just a quarter," as Boston Beer chairman Jim Koch said on conference call yesterday afternoon, but oh whatta quarter! Boston Beer's phenomenal 24% depletions growth rate in Q2 prefigured by 35% growth in IRI last 13 weeks (see last issue). But it's still a stunning result that Jim and ceo Martin Roper seemed at a loss to fully explain. "I think the growth has obviously surprised us a little bit," said Martin. "We did see pretty good turnaround in Sam Adams…starting late in the first quarter," he noted. Twisted Tea "was slower than we would have liked" earlier this yr, Martin added, "but seems to have picked up some velocity." And then there's Angry Orchard, which has risen rapidly to become #1 cider, "and a lot of the category growth seems to have accrued to our offerings," according to Martin. It's "exciting" but "relatively small" and they just don't know how big it will get.

Sam Adams cans didn't kick in until May and they're running at about 4% of its bottle biz total off-premise in IRI, so that's only 1 small part of pop, especially since there's some cannibalization. "Hard to interpret," said Martin, because Sam's recent growth in IRI is "way faster than that." Martin ventured that it's "reflective of the brand being healthy" (but it wasn't long ago that Sam franchise looked unhealthy) and "what we're doing across all our efforts, both our sales force, our marketing and media efforts, our wholesalers' efforts and good execution," Martin added.

Raised Volume Guidance Amidst Accelerated Sales; Distribs Ran Out of Summer Ale "We're currently back in a rising tide and floating with it," said Martin, referring to craft beer growth. Sam Adams brands "trending closer" to BA number (+13) "than they have in the past." With overall depletions up 22% yr-to-date thru Jul 20, Boston raised its guidance for full yr depletions to 17-22% from prior 10-15%. Both the wide range of outcomes and the huge increase in expectations from a qtr ago show Boston caught by surprise by current trends. One not-so-welcome by-product of such marked acceleration: "we've had some product shortages and service issues at the end of the quarter." Specifically, distribs ran out of Sammy Summer. Wha? Yep, Oktoberfest will be out "earlier this year…because of that acceleration that we saw that basically we obviously hadn't planned for and didn't have the liquid to support through to the end of July." That's Boston's "typical target" for wholesalers to "run out" of Summer Ale, but "it's fair to say…we ran out of Summer Ale earlier than that." And so "we have been shipping Oktoberfest. I know some is in retail already."

"Some Payoff" from "Long-term Investment"; Changing Landscape at Retail In another attempt to explain the surge, chairman Jim offered up some intriguing but non-definitive analysis: "I think maybe we're seeing the payoff from that long-term year-after-year investment in brand health for Sam Adams as there are" retailers and consumers "being inundated with so many brands." Jim sees "a few retailers realizing that the strong stable brands that consumers know are what they need to sell. And so we are seeing some of the leading edge retailers pulling back a little bit on the kind of beer-of-the-day mentality and making sure that they have the staples of the craft category like Sam Adams available all the time, because the drinkers do have brand loyalties that we've built for many years." That would be a significant switch and Sam could be a big beneficiary.

Boston Has Only 1-2% of Craft SKUs; Rebel IPA in Test; Upped Alchemy & Science Expense But Boston Beer sells over 50 brands of beer alone. While it used to get 10% of craft beer SKUS, now it just gets 1-2%, Martin said. And Boston Beer ain't gonna take the onslaught of variety sitting down. In addition to sales and mktg investments to shore up Sam, it will intro its own non-Sam Adams beers or perhaps buy 'em. Unmentioned on the call, but Boston Beer has intriguing new beer brand in test in several mkts without Sam Adams name. It's called Rebel IPA and it is reportedly very similar to Lagunitas. Boston reps even conduct blind taste tests vs Lagunitas, sez source. Then there's the upped brand investments on Alchemy & Science projects (Just IPA, Traveler, Angel City) to between $4-6 mil and $4-7 mil in capital investments on those projects, tho its recorded sales "have not been significant," said Martin Still, estimated spending "could change significantly when new brands are added."

Boston Financials Strong Too; Mkt Cap Over $2.5 Bil With such big volume growth, Boston of course saw big earnings growth too. Revs up $33.8 mil to $181 mil in 2d qtr; oper income up 37%, $8.6 mil to $32 mil. Even with anticipated increase in expenses (brand and sales investments, capital expenditures, etc), Boston shifted up earnings per share guidance in 2013: to $5.10-5.40 per share, from $4.70-5.10. Unsurprisingly, Boston's stock took off yet again this morn, following such stellar results. At presstime, Boston Beer stock up over $21, 12% to $201. Its market cap is $2.6 bil. Holy cow. Boston Beer stock price has multiplied by more than 10x since a low of 17, about 4.5 yrs ago. And it's back on a roll.

Many aspects of the sour beer world seem weird, foreign or totally antithetical to what one might expect. But these beers are attracting attention from consumers as well as from the esteemed editors of the New Yorker, which this week shared Christian DeBenedetti's musing on the "history of sour beers." The winding story begins in Belgium, of course, and the methods used to create traditional lambic and gueuze. Recently Belgian brands like Cantillon specializing in these styles, as well as the equipment used to create them, have increasingly found their way into the states. The growth and expansion of specialty importers like the Shelton Bros, quoted in the article, has put these brands in front of American beer drinkers. As have US breweries investing in coolships (an Anglicization of koelschip), foeders, and the cleaning regimens needed to keep the wild yeasts and bacteria that create those funky, tart, leather or horse blanket flavors in check. American innovators keep pushing these flavors and the techniques that produce them into new territory, including once-Deschutes brewer Paul Arney's use of "hollowed-out spruce trees resembling dugout canoes" as fermentation vessels for some Ale Apothecary beers. Investment and interest in sour ales isn't just an indie-craft phenomenon either: here too, Troy Casey's work at AC Golden for MillerCoors gets a nod (see last issue of CBN). Interestingly, DeBenedetti concludes that the acidity of the beers could create a neurological reaction inside the human body more complex than those to non-sour beers, perhaps an attempt at explaining, on a molecular level, why these beers lure such a devoted following.

By this time next year there could be 20 breweries in New York City, up from current 14, per NYC Brewers Guild, as reported in Crain's New York Business. Craft is catching on in NYC more and more quickly. Five brewers opened in borough of Queens this summer; in Staten Island, 2 are competing (Flagship Brewing Co and Staten Island Brewing Co) to open in Jan and become SI's "first brewery in 50 years." Meanwhile, up in Bronx, Bronx Brewery successfully raised $1 mil from friends and family for its new 14,000 sq. ft. facility. Other positive signs come from Upper East Side where sommelier at one upscale restaurant shifted his beer selection from 80% European to 80% craft. Some of the new brewers featured in article are showing robust growth on tiny base. Rockaway Brewing in Queens has jumped from $3,000-4,000 to $10,000-12,000 in weekly sales, while another brewer, SingleCut has seen its keg sales go from 175 per month earlier this yr to 375 currently.

Shakeout Looming? That's great news for these craft brewers and enthusiasts alike, but "some in the business think there's a, well, bubble in the offing," Crain's cautioned. "There will be great growth rates, but there's clearly not enough room at the table for those looking to sit down," said Robert Mitchell, who runs Manhattan Beer Distrib's craft/spirits div. "I do think there will be a shakeout," he noted. How soon and how big that shakeout could be obviously remains to be seen. Others, such as Brew York blog see all this recent growth as a positive and point out NYC is finally just catching up to national craft growth. There are "factors at play" that make another bubble burst here "far less likely," wrote blog. For starters, 5 of the ten "brick and mortar" brewers making beer within city limits "all have brewhouses smaller than five barrels," so "they're not exactly saturating the market." Also, there is a better "support structure in place," and the state is supporting craft with tax credits. Back in mid-90's many of the failed brewers were running brewpubs, and were getting crushed in NYC's famously tough restaurant scene. Today's brewers in NYC, Brew York writes, "are smarter about their business plans, more conscious of their competition," and also have a "heightened awareness of local products," as well as a bigger consumer base. NYC "could have 38 breweries before matching the per-capita level of New York State," and "we'll see the warning signs" of a bubble nationally first given that "there are 49 states with more breweries per capita than New York City."