While overall malt bev biz in US trending up 1%+ so far this yr, AB continues to outperform major domestic competitors. Total US shipments up estimated 1% in 2d qtr, 1.5% for 6 mos. A lot of that increase: malternatives, especially Smirnoff Ice and new-brand rollouts. Traditional beer biz barely up so far this yr even as imports gained estimated 6-7% (up 7% thru May). For 12 mos, US biz still up less than 1%; imports up 5.5%.

AB was sole gainer among top-4 brewers in 2d qtr and only major brewer ahead for 6 mos and 12 mos. Up 550,000 bbls, 2.1% Apr-Jun. Picked up 900,000 bbls, 1.8% for 6 mos. AB reported sales-to-retailers (STRs) up 2% YTD thru 1^st week of July to tease out effect of Jul 4 "timing differences" this yr vs last yr. (Buy-in was earlier last yr.) For 12 mos, AB up 1.3 mil bbls, 1.3% and up 0.3 share to 48.8. Miller trend reversed in 2d qtr: shipments down estimated 260,000 bbls, 2.3%, following 150,000-bbl gain in 1^st qtr, flat 4^th qtr 2001. For 6 mos, Miller off 0.5% despite rollout of 3 malternatives; its beer biz down estimated 2-3% during period. PM didn’t report Miller’s STR trend in 2d qtr, but STRs down 2.6% in 1^st qtr. For 12 mos, Miller lost about a half-share to 19.5.

Coors’ US/export biz nothin’ to shout about either. Down slightly Jan-Jun. And Coors STR trend softened in 2d qtr: it was flat (adjusting for Jul 4) following 1.4% gain in 1^st qtr. Coors shipments off 190,000 bbls, 0.8% for 12 mos; share off 0.2. Dipped back below 11. Since string of 4 qtrs when Coors averaged 6% growth (4^th qtr 99 thru 3d qtr 2000), Coors down 200,000 bbls, 0.5%, over last 7 qtrs. (Coors worldwide volume, including UK acquisition, up 3.9 mil bbls, 33% Jan-Jun to 15.4 mil bbls; Carling biz growin’ in UK.) Pabst dropoff in 2d qtr similar to 1^st qtr: off estimated 3% so far this yr. "All Other" domestic brewers down slightly in 2d qtr, up about 2% for 6 mos. That includes Boston gain (75,000 bbls for 6 mos) and malternative production at Diageo’s Pennsy plant. Import growth slowed to mid single-digits in 1^st half, we estimate, as Corona price increase kicked in. Modelo 2d-qtr exports from Mexico up about 5%; FEMSA exports up about 6%. Modelo gained double-digits for 6 mos vs 7% for FEMSA.