Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Despite sizable volume drops and wonky comps, Molson Coors' stock shot up about 7% today on better-than-expected Q2 financials. Lots of time spent unpacking impact of shipments cadence and Pabst contract volume on this morn's earnings call. But asked repeatedly about broader consumer and industry backdrop, ceo Gavin Hattersley said Q2 was "a continuation of what we've been seeing for a while," not "terribly dissimilar" from the last several yrs. There was "a fair amount of noise" in Q2, he acknowledged, tho "we did see some improvement in June." And if Q2 "taught us anything, it's that you can't make a prediction on a quarter based on a few weeks of data."

Following massive jump in sales for the first week of July due to holiday timing, beer sales posted a mid-single-digit drop vs year ago for the 3d consecutive wk in tracked Circana multi-outlet + convenience channels. Beer $$ declined 5.6% with volume -7% for latest wk ending Jul 28 vs year ago. Most top-50 brand families were down again for the latest week, including #1 Modelo. Yet altogether, beer trends still improved in July vs first half of 2024; down just 0.6% by $$ and -2% by volume for 4 wks thru Jul 28 in Circana MULC vs $$ down 0.9%, volume -2.8% YTD thru Jun 30. But gotta wonder, will recent sales slump continue into Aug?

Beer shipments posted slight growth thru 1st half of 2024 vs year ago, including a solid 1.5% gain in Q2, Beer Inst estimates citing TTB and US Dept of Commerce data. That's even as Jun shipments dipped 2.6% (depletions -4.1%) with taxpaids down 5%. Yet domestic brewer shipments declined just 1% for the 2d qtr, down 2%, 1.45 mil bbls for 6 mos. Imports' strong 8%, 1.6-mil-bbl gain YTD thru Jun (including +6% in Jun, +11% in Q2) more than made up for domestic brewer declines. Imports were over 22 share of US shipments volume.

Register today for the 30th annual Beer Insights Seminar, back in the Big Apple with an evening reception Sunday, Nov 17 and all-day program Monday, Nov 18. Our speaker slate includes Constellation's exec veep and beer division president, Jim Sabia, Sazerac president & ceo Jake Wenz, New Belgium ceo Shaun Belongie, NBWA president Craig Purser and BMI's own Benj Steinman, with more to be announced soon.

In first full qtr lapping those lofty comps, Molson Coors sez 2d qtr results "played out largely as we expected." Global net sales nearly flat (-0.4%) and bottom-line grew 5.2% going against co's strongest Q2 net sales since the 2005 Molson and Coors merger. It maintained full-yr guidance for top and bottom-line growth for a 3d straight yr, including low-single digit net sales increase and mid-single digit pre-tax income growth.

"We're out of ideas. Anyone want to come in and fix this thing?" That's essence of announcement issued late last week by small-cap co Kona Gold Beverages, which lately has offered range of cannabevs while pursuing acquisitions, including recent failed deal that seems to have precipitated bout of soul searching there. Seemingly out of steam and out of money now, co announced "strategic initiatives and corporate direction change." Meaning what? It's seeking reverse merger that "aims to bring in new management and shift the company's direction, leveraging fresh perspectives and capabilities to drive future growth and success," the Melbourne, Fla-based co said.

A brewing, soda bottling and convenience-store powerhouse in Latin America, Mexican-based giant Femsa has long indicated it has its sights set on entering US retail market but promised modest forays via single c-store openings over past decade never seemed to materialize. But it's landed now with deal to acquire 249 c-stores located mainly in Texas from Delek US Holdings, which prefers to focus on its energy operations. So operator of massive Oxxo chain finally is planting a flag here, picking up chain with 90% of its footprint in Texas and smattering of stores in NM and Ark. The $385 mil deal is anticipated to close later this year.

Another RTD coffee fronted by a celeb is dropping. This time it's NBA star Jimmy Butler's Big Face Coffee that's prepping launch of canned version of his roasts in Original, Coconut Cinnamon and Ube Vanilla flavors, first time we recall seeing trending ube purple yam incorporated in coffee. So far he's just teasing launch on social media and we haven't picked up details on retail or distribution plans . . . Responding to younger consumers' overwhelming interest in taking their coffee cold these days, Keurig Dr Pepper has gone live with a key brewer innovation dubbed Keurig K-Brew + Chill on its Keurig.com platform, using proprietary process it calls QuickChill Technology "to deliver the coldest cup of coffee from a Keurig to date," per announcement, in 3 minutes or less. (So far we haven't seen any ads featuring bullet train, tho.) New unit allows users to select any pods within K-Cup ecosystem of 500+ varieties for brewing hot and, if they wish, then chill it down to consume cold without any diminution in flavor. It's about 10 inches wide, 15 deep and 12 high with a 70-oz removable reservoir. It's priced at $199 with free shipping . . . In "Morning Brief" yesterday, Yahoo editor Brian Sozzi offered sharp but well informed critique of Starbucks direction under its new CEO Laxman Narasimhan, while also lashing out at longtime leader, Howard Schultz, who "just can't seem to relinquish the limelight and the ingrained desire to lurk over the company like a hungry aging lion." Tho Narasimhan has been rapidly losing credibility from poor financials and store metrics on his watch as well as dismantling by Jim Cramer on stock watcher's show, Schultz hasn't been helping things from his continuing perch as chmn emeritus, issuing tweet that undermined his hand-picked successor, maintaining parking spot at Seattle hq and, as we've often noted, foisting on him need to keep building out the polarizing Oleato olive oil coffee that Schultz hyped as game-changer before exiting. "Schultz needs to exit Starbucks once and for all so the executive team can be free to make mistakes and grow, the board can assess management outside of a founder's gaze, and new talent can ascend to the upper rungs of the corporation. No more chairman emeritus status. No more being allowed to attend board meetings and having a parking spot at HQ . . . No more olive oil deal." The latest: even as Narasimhan seems to be trying to work out constructive deal with hedge fund Elliott, Schultz has been opposing any settlement, Reuters reported. Howard still holds $2.03 bil in shares, which are off 21% over past 5 years, much of that on his watch.

Realm Artesian Water, an ambitious, design-y effort out of NY State's Albany region, has pulled in $1.5 mil in capital, Albany Biz Review reported. Co also has leased 5K-sq-ft of manufacturing space near Albany Int'l Airport, CEO Todd Kletter told paper, tho he wouldn't reveal exact location until necessary permits are obtained. But his goal is to be bottling by late Sep and to sell 1 mil gallons in first year of production, with 10% of inventory targeting DTC sales. As reported, new brand wielded most spectacular display recent Fancy Food Show in NY, where it handed out 32K samples in Ball aluminum cups (BBI, Jun 24) . . . InvestBev, which focuses on alc-bev segment via investments in likes of JuneShine, Siempre Tequila and SpeakEasy ecomm platform, has made a bet of undisclosed magnitude on Sechey, alc-alternative purveyor that operates a store in Charleston, is building its own brands and curates a selection at Target chain. "We have long loved the non-alc sector and we have picked a horse," declared InvestBev general partner Brian Rosen. The news comes as breath of fresh air in sector where Boisson chain abruptly shut down earlier this year after big capital raise and brisk multistate expansion. (On our visit to Chicago last week, key location in Wicker Park still had inventory on shelves and clutter on counter as it awaits relaunch under new owner, and GoFundMe request was taped to doorway by terminated employees.) . . . Now moving to news that's several degrees of magnitude greater scale, Coca-Cola on Fri said it would appeal decision rendered by US Tax Court on long-simmering dispute that demands payment of $2.7 bil liability that with interest swells to $6 bil range. "Coca-Cola strongly believes the IRS and the Tax Court misinterpreted and misapplied the applicable regulations involved in the case and will vigorously defend its position on appeal," KO declared, tho it will pay that sum in meantime. Dispute going back to 2015 involves accounting issue on whether some income should be classed within US or at foreign affiliates.

It's an inevitable stress when brand that instantly ignited moves into reverse: managing copacking side of biz. Congo Brands clearly hasn't navigated this difficult transition on Prime Hydration to Refresco's satisfaction judging by lawsuit the copacking behemoth filed claiming breach of contract and deceptive practices. It's seeking at least $67.7 mil in damages.