Eat the Change, the CPG arm of PLNT Burger co co-created by Honest Tea founder Seth Goldman, is easing out the last of its plant-based snacks lines and going all in on bevs. Co is segueing in coming months to new corporate name, Just Ice Tea, for bev entry that's notching big share gains in major segment that no longer seems to hold much interest for Big 3 soda giants. On innovation side, co is keeping its cards close to vest, tho cofounder Seth Goldman said more unsweetened entries will be entering mix to augment Unsweetened Green and Unsweetened Black versions, the latter just going national within Whole Foods alongside lightly sweetened sibling Mango White Tea. And in another demonstration of uncommon agility of reconstituted Honest Tea team, co readied a special sku for NY partner Big Geyser in barely 2 months.

Across a variety of metrics within the craft segment and “on a collective basis, the suppliers with greater ‘FOCUS’ are experiencing stronger trends and outperforming their competitors that may be a bit more scattered in their go-to-market approach.” So wrote Dan Wandel, familiar analyst and new member of the team at Bump Williams Consulting, in BWC’s monthly client letter this morn. The theme of “focus” and doing “more with less” has been bubbling up in craft (and beyond) for years now, responding to a period of fast growth and even faster innovation. Today, Dan put numbers to that notion.

Brewers focused “exclusively” on craft, that sell fewer styles or items or new items, are collectively trending better in off-premise scan data than competitors with less focus, Dan’s analysis shows. In each of 5 metrics, the more focused group of brewers grew craft volume for 52 wks thru Jun 22 in NIQ data, despite the segment’s 4.7% decline over that period, per BWC.

Importantly, Dan narrowed his analysis to 150 suppliers with most (tho not necessarily all) of their biz in craft. It excludes top suppliers like AB, MC, Constellation, Boston Beer, Heineken, Monster and more. Notably those suppliers are collectively down 9-10% in craft for the last 52 wks and YTD. This analysis also excludes non-alc beer, so fast-growing Athletic was also removed. The next 150 largest craft suppliers, still a majority of craft volume, collectively declined just 1% for 52 wks, down a slightly steeper 2.4% yr-to-date.

Fewer Styles, Fewer Items and IPA-Focus Lead to Best Trends Suppliers that sell across a smaller subset of craft styles and with fewer items in the market collectively did better than others, Dan displayed. About 1/3 of 150 craft-focused suppliers sell just 6 or fewer styles in the segment. As a group, they grew volume 4.1% over the last yr. In a similar vein, the 66 suppliers with fewer than 30 items (measured as UPCs, combos of brand and pkg) collectively grew 4.7%. Remaining suppliers in each analysis collectively declined.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the measure of focus that showed the greatest success was “the role of IPAs within the portfolio,” Dan explained. The 42 suppliers with 2/3 or more of their off-premise biz in IPA grew 5.3% as a group. So when it comes to style and items, “less can be more,” with analysis showing “greater FOCUS correlating to stronger volume sales trends,” he wrote. The finding about IPAs suggests “that in tougher times it may be in a supplier’s best interest to maintain a FOCUS on ‘fishing where the fish are.’”

Over half of these 150 brewers, 84 of them, have by now expanded into other segments outside of craft, per BWC analysis. And those brewers are collectively performing worse, both within craft and in total. By this point, playing beyond craft is a net negative for these brewers, collectively down 1.1% by volume for 52 wks (and slightly softer YTD) across all alcohol in NIQ scans. Interestingly, the 18 who launched a non-alc beer are collectively down 10% within craft, while the 66 with a flavored alc bev (FMB/seltzer/etc) are down 1.1% in craft. The other 66 that only sell craft beer grew that biz 1.9% for 52 wks. Similarly, the 56 brewers with just 1 new item in the market, or none at all, grew craft volume 1.7% as a group, Dan showed. 

Biggest Squeeze on Brewers Stuck in the Middle All that said, brewers that demonstrated the least focus did not perform the worst. Instead, brewers caught in the middle posted the toughest trends across each of the 5 metrics Dan explored. These top 150 craft-focused suppliers averaged 8.3 styles, 51 items and 3.2 new items. The 63 suppliers selling across 7-10 styles declined 3%. The 37 with 30-59 items declined 5.3%. And the 48 with 2-3 new items dropped 5.7% as a group. And when it comes to IPA, the 57 with 35-67% of their volume in the segment’s top style collectively declined 5.4%, the BWC letter shows. Groups of brewers playing with more styles, more items, more new items or less of their biz in IPA each declined 1-3%.

Top Players Also Displaying More Focus within Craft Tho excluded from Dan’s analysis, some of the largest players in the beer biz also seem to know that more focus is needed to succeed in craft (and beer) lately. Consider AB’s emphasis on “megabrands” inside and outside of craft, and its craft-specific style leadership strategy. It pared back its portfolio significantly by selling numerous brands off last yr, while remaining brand families have clear leaders (see below).

Molson Coors turned much of its focus to lead horse Blue Moon, pulling back on innovation there to emphasize the flagship, the rebranded (and more simply named) Light and the new NA take. Under Boston’s wing, Dogfish Head founder Sam Calagione has been emphasizing the co’s “Core Four” strategy for years, while Sam Adams got back to its roots, especially with Seasonal. Monster followed suit, too, slimming offerings and lifting up flagships and core brands across much of its craft portfolio.

Can Simplicity Reign Again? Other major craft players have also preached the gospel of “focus” in recent years. It’s been a recurring theme for Brewers Assn chief economist and strategy veep Bart Watson, too. And advisors to some of the smallest US brewers have urged a similar strategic shift, encouraging them to look at their core biz and refocus on profitability by emphasizing on-site sales and higher margin beers.

The reasons are clear and well-known: full distributor warehouses, crowded retailer shelves and fickle, fragmented consumer demands. Greater focus solves for many of those challenges, demonstrating clear priorities for downstream industry partners and telling a more unified story for consumers. It can also drive profitability throughout the supply chain. Craft’s breadth has always been a source of its strength. But does every player need to demonstrate the segment’s full array?

Word starting to come in on who will get BuzzBallz brand after Sazerac went thru extensive RFP (Request for Proposal) process with wholesalers post-acquisition. Southern Glazer's previously had BuzzBallz in most of US. It will be keeping brand in some of biggest mkts, losing it in others and getting it in 1 big mkt. Southern keeping brands in TX, getting brands from Breakthru in FL, INSIGHTS understands. But Reyes Beverage Group got BuzzBallz in CA and IL, states where Southern previously sold the brand. Columbia got it in Pac NW. Both Columbia and RBG already sell Sazerac spirits portfolio in those states. That's also true for Eagle Rock in CO. It got BuzzBallz, previously sold by Southern there.