Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

For a couple decades, the energy category has been a marvel of premium growth, but lately it's unmistakably slowed. A pair of veteran Wall Street analysts are projecting calmness about that slowdown, arguing that longer-term drivers are still in place to keep category - and Monster specifically as biggest publicly traded pure play - growing.

Jones Soda has extended its Mary Jones Hemp Delta-9 platform into shooter format, augmenting craft sodas and gummies that launched earlier this year. Packed into 2-oz shot bottles, new entry contains 10 mg of hemp-derived Delta-9 THC, in Berry Lemonade, Green Apple, MF Grape and Orange & Cream flavors. Seattle-based co is targeting liquor stores, smoke & tobacco retailers and grocery stores with entries . . . Sammy Nasrollahi, entrepreneur who's long marketed diabetic-friendly Rev D bev under corporate name Hydro One Beverages out of Greenwood, SC, is hoping new scientific study offers a lift for new line dubbed Canabix that he claims is first naturally formulated bev to combine CBD and probiotics. Study by researchers at Augusta State Univ found that drinking Canabix instead of water lowered hemoglobin alc by 5-9% in mice with diabetes type 2 and also increased insulin production in pancreatic cells and reduced inflammatory indices. Canabix contains 30 mg of CBD and is offered in Lemon Cucumber, Dragon Fruit and Peach Tea flavors. Tho created in 2020 it remains in limited distribution while study traverses peer review process . . . Former champs of Carolina Shag dance are commemorating 40th anniversary of designation as official dance of SC with launch of new bev mix called Shag-a-Rita, aiming to tap into the nearly 1 mil people who they believe to be familiar with dance. Operating as Rhythm & Booze Co, founders Bucky, Shari and Ivy Claire Huiet of Trenton, SC, and Sam, Lisa and Mack West of Hamlet, NC, recruited Second City Distillery in August, Ga, to bottle the line, offered at $14 per bottle or $36 per 3-pk containing The Basic, North Myrtle Peach and Boogie Woogie Berry versions. The entries, which contain no juice, are packed in 32-oz bottles good for 11 or so servings.

National Beverage continued its gradual growth in fiscal Q4, setting new quarterly sales record tho volume growth appears to have stalled for full year. Florida-based marketer of La Croix, Rip It Energy, Shasta and host of other bevs reported a 3.7% sales gain in final period to $297.3 mil, per characteristically sketchy earnings announcement from co controlled by Caporella family. Led by La Croix and Rip It, overall case volume grew 5%, co indicated. Gross margins widened by a point to 36.7%. Net income rose 20% to $43.7 mil.

Curious Elixirs represents another mixer or alc-alternative exhibitor that seems to have gone far with essentially DIY ethos. Nine years in, the Brooklyn-based co continues to self-distribute its brown-bottle wares, reaching about 2,500 bottle shops, specialty stores and nightclubs in all 50 states, marketing dir Rachel Reynolds reported. (Legendary NY jazz club Blue Note is key local customer.) But co hasn't hesitated lately to mix it up, adding cans to mix - 12-oz units for poolside relaxer and minicans for pair of other entries - and accelerating the flow of new recipes. Co also maintains DTC biz and operates its own sober speakeasy dubbed Club Curious in Williamsburg part of Brooklyn. Still, the time finally may have arrived to start to seek out regional distributors, said its founder, JW Wiseman, who's also a principal at Brooklyn-based marketing agency Good Business.

Coming just after pandemic hit in 2020, United Sodas of America was both obvious and counterintuitive at same time: down-the-middle sodas with moderate sugar levels and catchy can colors, at time many Americans seemed hellbent on enjoying their fizzy drinks without the least smidgen of sugar (BBI, May 13 2020). Among its more shocking elements was can that contained no brand name on front panel, relying instead on unusually sophisticated color palette to make brand instantly identifiable.

Pushing back against aluminum tariffs continues to be a top priority for the Beer Inst, which today submitted comments on new tariff proposal by US Trade Rep (USTR). The fed trade body is currently considering a slew of new tariffs on goods imported from China, including a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products, set to take effect Aug 1. Domestic aluminum cansheet producers can't meet current demand, BI pointed out, with "no realistic expectation of domestic capacity until at least the end of 2026." Since brewers enter multi-yr contracts for cans well in advance, they're likely to continue to rely on other sources, "including China," at least "for the near future," according to BI.

Nearly halfway thru the year and a few mos into lapping last yr's Bud Light fallout, beer industry trends have fallen into familiar patterns for the most part. Interesting shifts continue to take hold in the process. Here's what jumped out to INSIGHTS in the latest Circana report thru Jun 16:

  • Beer $$ dipped 0.5% with volume -2.5% YTD thru Jun 16 in Circana MULC data. Avg price/case rose 2% to $30.34. Sales trends softened to $$ -0.8% and vol -3% over the latest 12 wks. Still losing ground to spirits ($$ +2.6%) but outpacing wine (-2.4%) in these channels for 12 wks. (End of Jun could soften going against an earlier load-in and stock-up for July 4 on a Tuesday in 2023 vs Thursday this yr.)
  • MC's still up slightly YTD with $$ +1.3%, vol +0.1%. But yr-over-yr growth is dwindling fast. MC $$ sales down 6% for last 4 wks thru Jun 16 with Coors Light -8%, Miller Lite -5%, Keystone Light down 5%, Simply -20%. Blue Moon family improved, but down 4% for period. Banquet's rockin' (see below) and High Life $$ up 2%. Over a 2-yr run, Molson Coors still up considerably in scans as co's $$ sales grew 15% for same 4-wk period in 2023 vs 2022.
  • AB $$ still down 7% YTD but down just 0.8% for 4 wks as it gained share of volume. AB's still losing slight share of beer $$ for the latest 4 wks tho co's volume (-2%) gained 0.2 share same period. Sales are still down double-digits vs 2 yrs ago, shedding over 5 share of volume.
  • Mich Ultra $$ are neck and neck with Bud Light YTD. Bud Light's down 19% to $1.523 bil vs Mich Ultra up 2% to $1.5 bil YTD thru Jun 16 in MULC. Mich Ultra's bigger for 12 wks as sales growth picks up. For latest 4 wks, Ultra $$ grew 7% vs Bud Light still down 6% (on top of 24% decline for same period in 2023 vs 2022). Ultra $$ for the year are on track to surpass Bud Light by mid July.
  • Modelo Especial sales were $338 mil ahead of Bud Light YTD. It's pulling away as #1 beer by $$ at retail with sales up 12% to $1.86 bil thru Jun 16 in MULC channels.
  • Modelo Especial, Mich Ultra and Pacifico avg prices rose just 0.4-0.5% YTD. That's 3 of the biggest growth brands in beer getting below-avg price increases this year.
  • Pacifico $$ grew 26% leapfrogging Banquet, Busch and High Life to become #13 beer brand for 4 wks. Coors Banquet $$ (+13%) surpassed Busch and Miller High Life.
  • Heineken 0.0 and Bud Zero accelerated for 4 wks to +13% and +18% respectively. Athletic maintained 77% growth for period.
  • Arnold Palmer Spiked is accelerating while other (bigger) MC beyond beer brands down double-digits. Half & Half brand is bigger than Mike's Hard Lemonade original YTD. For latest 4 wks, Arnold Palmer Spiked family up 52% to $5.6 mil, Happy Thursday added incremental $1.8 mil and Peace Hard Tea $245K. Yet those brands still much smaller than declining beyond beer brands like Simply -20% to $18.2 mil, Topo Chico seltzer -27% to $13.8 mil, Redd's -10% to $8.6 mil and Vizzy -36% to 6.2 mil.
  • Yuengling Flight still growing double-digits in scans for 4 wks while the rest of Yuengling's portfolio is down steep double-digits and Yuengling total company sales slipped 14% for 4 wks. Similar to MC, Yuengling is still up over a 2-yr period. And Flight is getting growth on top of growth. But flagship Yuengling lager down 20% and Yuengling Light -13% for 4 wks.
  • Monster alc bev $$ were flattish for 4 wks thru Jun 16 with FMBs +5%, CANarchy -8%. Still up 30% to nearly $95 mil from 2.3 mil cases YTD thru Jun 16. But Beast Unleashed is consistently down double-digits while smaller intro of Nasty Beast is offsetting losses.
  • Prestige Beverage Group accelerated to +108% for 4 wks in foodstores. It's up 62% YTD and listed as the #23 "beer" vendor in Circana foodstores. Co's website only lists wine & spirit brands, including Risata Wines, Windsor Canadian and 2XO whiskeys, Kinky Beverages, Yes Way Rosé among many others. Yet Circana foodstore rankings suggest it's making similar inroads with malt-versions of its products as Sazerac.
  • Geloso is silently growing low-double-digits: up 12% YTD and +11% for 4 wks, led by Clubtails. Geloso $$ sales are nearly as big as Pabst in c-stores, where co's already a top-10 beer vendor.
  • Cayman Jack became #25 brand family by $$ in foodstores YTD. Sales were bigger than Sam Adams in foodstores for 4 wks. It's also bigger than Mike's Hard Lemonade family (-18%) in MULC for the latest 4 wks, becoming Mark Anthony Brands' 3d largest brand family behind White Claw and Mike's Harder for period.

Yuengling will enter IL mkt next Feb through the JV with Molson Coors (called the Yuengling Company). Unsurprisingly, it appointed Molson Coors distribs statewide in Molson Coors home state. And it went with the whole cluster of 8 MC distribs in Chi metro. Other possible broader solutions, including The Reyes Beverage Group or Lakeshore (Hand Family Companies) were considered, reportedly even preferred by some. But in the end, the Yuengling Company made the expected choice. It will enter IL with draft beer in Feb, packaged beer in Mar-Apr 2025. IL is an 8-mil-bbl mkt, so if Yuengling gets 2%, that's 160K bbls, 3% 240K bbls. In other Yuengling news, DG Yuengling sales and mktg vp Colin Callahan has left the co and joined the Yuengling Company JV.

As brewers of all shapes and sizes look to find space within the fledgling non-alc beer segment, Bend, OR's Crux Fermentation Project is quickly making NAs an essential part of its mix. The brewer produced 18.2K bbls in 2023 and its NøMø non-alc offerings make up "35% to 40% of all sales," managing director and brewmaster Cam O'Connor told Here Is Oregon. If referring to volume, that implies 6-7K bbls of NAs for a relatively small regional brewer.

The new-SKU machine that is Tilray Brands is making anticipated push into non-alc beers with a line called Runner's High that's breaking in Atlanta base of its SweetWater Brewing, with expansion markets to be announced soon. The new line infused with hop terpenes debuts in trio of styles that all keep calorie count well below 100: Golden Wheat (90 calories), Raspberry Wheat (70 calories) and Dark Chocolate (60 calories). Recall, Runner's High was among slew of innovations outlined by Tilray in conversation with CBN back in Mar.