Beer Marketer's Insights
As shakeout of fast-delivery specialists proceeds, Gopuff is looking like the survivor - albeit with new competition from likes of Uber Eats. What does it take to succeed with bev brand at Gopuff, which has grown to serving 600+ cities? That was focus of BevNet Live session with merchandising vp Max Crowley. His answer: novel items and LTOs that tie into users' avid trendspotting. Crowley is an Uber vet who cofounded a co called Bandit that Gopuff acquired, which brought him to co in late 2020. And recall that overall bevs program there is managed by Anheuser-Busch vet Randy Ornstein.
Throwback Thursday
This week in 1999, speaking at Insights' Consolidation Conference, NBWA chmn Don Klopcic said distrib consolidation lessens political clout. He cited Natl Soft Drink Assn and Wine & Spirits Assn, which suffered big drops in numbers due to consolidation. It's "not coincidental" neither org ranks among Fortune mag's "Power List" in DC, said Don. Meanwhile, NBWA was ranked #24 out of 2K assns. It's "difficult to lobby" Congress or Senate if you don't live in district, said Don. Outsiders "not taken seriously." He noted NBWA was building financial safeguards (raised dues from $10K to $15K to make up for losing 3% of members each yr); was adding assn members, working closer with suppliers and pounding education efforts. Another key: distribs gotta "drill down further into wholesaler member operations" and get gen mgrs, salespeople, drivers, etc politically involved. NBWA had room for growth too he pointed out, given 738 out of 2500 beer distribs didn't belong and 47% didn't donate to PAC.
"The great opportunity no one is talking about is the on-premise," said NBWA chief economist Lester Jones in brief presentation at Encompass meeting in Denver last week. Other panelists/speakers at that conference agreed. Two of 3 new accounts that are opening now are on-premise, according to Lester. What's more, total restaurant sales are projected to be up 5.4% to $1.1 trillion, according to the Natl Restaurant Association. That's a new record. And avg household spent nearly 53% of its food budget away from home last yr, up 10 points from 20 yrs earlier, according to a Wall St Jnl article earlier this week, citing US Agriculture Dept. Restaurants are the "unlikely new real estate darling," headlined WSJ. They've come a long way back in a few short years after so many shut their doors during the pandemic. But even if more $$ going to restaurants, are consumers spending more on alcohol? Maybe they're spending more dining out, but drinking less.
Crossover FMB/seltzer and other alc bev RTDs from different sides of the bev aisle are mostly declining tuff double-digits lately. AriZona Hard Tea, Arnold Palmer Spiked, Cantaritos hard soda and Spindrift Spiked hard seltzer are the few exceptions to the rule these days. Malt versions of BeatBox and Buzzballz are gaining traction too. But in the latest 4 wks thru Jun 1, Simply Spiked (-34%), Topo Chico (-22%), Beast Unleashed (-10%), Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails (-16%), Hard MTN Dew (-46%), and Lipton Hard Iced Tea (-25%) all slipped varying degrees of double-digits, report from Goldman Sachs' Bonnie Herzog shows, citing NIQ data. Sazerac's malt-based Fireball brand was down 4% for 4 wks. Plus, Beam FMBs were down more than 3/4 vs yr ago and Sauza FMBs were discontinued. On the spirits RTD side, Jack Daniel's spirit RTD family dropped 30%, driven by Jack & Coke not cycling, White Claw spirit RTDs sank 46%, Truly RTDs -19% and Fresca Mixed slipped 18%. Sunny D RTDs were down high teens for 4 wks thru May 4, last INSIGHTS saw.
One state legislature and another state regulator are among the latest to attempt to get fast-moving innovations in intoxicating bevs under control. In Michigan, a bill pending in the state senate follows other state attempts to restrict retailer merchandising of alcoholic crossovers of non-alc bev brands, according to a local CBS affiliate in Northern Mich. Nearby Illinois followed Virginia in taking similar action, following vocal complaints, largely centered around Hard Mtn Dew. Tho that brand not mentioned in this article (which cited "Coke, Sunny D or AriZona Iced Tea" instead), the piece does reference the infamous image of it being stocked "even next to matchbox cars in a display, which obviously is frankly despicable," as Mich Beer & Wine Wholesalers Assn's Brett Visney said. Bill is still being considered by committee, where some legislators expressed concerns about the proposal's potential impacts on small-footprint retailers.
Explorer, the "caffeine conscious" cold-brew concentrate launched during pandemic by stuck-at-home outdoor adventurer named Cason Crane in Brooklyn, has entered RTD segment with 12-oz canned line that he unveiled during Showdown competition at BevNet Live conference in NY this afternoon. Most unusual in lineup is The Daydreamer, 99.9% caffeine-free entry made using Swiss Water process from specialty-grade Peruvian beans. Also in mix is The Seeker Half Caf made with Peruvian and Ethiopian beans and containing 65 mg of caffeine. Rounding out line is The Classic, from Ethiopian beans and coming in at 180 mg of caffeine. They all go out at $3.99 per can.
Inflation showed surprising signs of cooling in May, consumer price index remaining flat over prior month, +3.3% for past 12 mos, Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. That was deceleration from April's 0.3% month-over-month increase and 3.4% annual gain. Both measures came in lower than economist expectations, Yahoo Finance reported. It was lowest monthly headline reading since Jul 2022.
Nixie, which like other marketers of flavored sparkling waters has positioned its line as guilt-free alternative to soda, has now made overt move into CSD category. Today it unveiled trio of Zero Sugar Sodas packed in conventional 12-oz cans, like the core line, and offered in Classic Cola, Root Beer and Ginger Ale flavors. It employs organic flavors and extracts, in keeping with credo of core brand, and foregoes any artificial sweeteners. Sample cans encountered at BevNet Live conference in NY today indicated that Stevia is sweetener. Launch partner is Sprouts Farmers Market but more stores will be coming aboard as summer proceeds, founder/CEO Nicole Dawes, who earlier created and exited organic Late July snack brand, posted today. "The R&D for this new line was the most challenging in my 30-year career," she acknowledged.
SCANNER TRENDS: Prices Coming Down; CSD Volume Even; Energy Slowdown; Sports Slide Continues
Average prices were either lower or came down further in every non-alc bev segment except sparkling flavored waters and coconut waters for 4 wks thru Jun 1 (which covered Memorial Day weekend holiday) in NielsenIQ data reported by Goldman Sachs.
Letters concerning alcohol and the Dietary Guidelines are piling up quickly on the desks of Secretaries Becerra and Vilsack. Shortly after the leaders of the Depts of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Agriculture (USDA), respectively, received another request for more information about the process from members of the House Ag committee (see yesterday's issue), leaders of 15 alc bev industry trade orgs joined the chorus. "Americans deserve guidance based on sound science, not ideology," the group wrote early this week.

