Beer Marketer's Insights
NEW PRODUCTS: Oatly Crafts Plant-Based Whipped Cream as Starbucks Topper, Per Employee Cheat Sheet
If Starbucks' recently stressed CEO Laxman Narasimhan is lookin' to put intriguing win on the board, possible attention-getter seems imminent: a non-dairy whipped cream that's been years in the making at Oatly. Vehicle, per leaked employee training items that were reported by fan who goes on Instagram by #bigboxvegan, will be Cinnamon Crumble Oatmilk Frappuccino Blended Beverage that contains toasted cinnamon syrup, Frappuccino roast coffee, creamy oatmilk and ice topped by "nondairy whipped cream and cinnamon crumble topping," per one Instagram post. "Our first nondairy Frappuccino is also our first new core Frappuccino in a decade!" per internal document. The whipped cream will be called Oatly Vanilla Flavored Heavy Whipping Cream, packed in refrigerated 32-oz cartons with 7-day shelf life once opened. It will also be made available as a topping for any other bev for free, as with dairy-based whipped cream.
Celsius shares crashed earlier this week after Morgan Stanley, citing latest scanners, warned of energy slowdown, wiping out $2 bil of co's valuation to about $18 bil now. Was that an overreaction? Certainly, respondents to Goldman Sachs' Beverage Bytes survey aren't panicking. Majority (55%) "are not seeing any signs of a category slowdown," reported Goldman Sachs' Bonnie Herzog as she shared results of survey representing ~40 distribs or >110K retail outlets/~22% of total US outlets for Memorial Day weekend. Survey found alc/non-alc sales combined grew 1.7% over the holiday with a 1.1% gain in customer traffic. Retailers expect energy segment to grow ~8.6% this yr. While scanner data has shown a recent deceleration in Celsius sales, growth expectations among retailers actually have gotten stronger. In latest survey, on avg they expect Celsius to grow 46% for full yr 2024. That's up from 40% in an Apr survey and 39% in survey at end of 2023. At one retailer, CELH "reached an impressive 14.3% share, with strong momentum expected to continue," wrote Bonnie. Survey found CELH consumer "seems to favor the 12-oz can - which is expected to be the primary growth driver for the company moving forward," she added. (Recall, it intro'd a 16-oz line dubbed Essentials this year.) One retailer shared "they are seeing some 'morning caffeine' conversion from CSDs to energy drinks, driven by inflationary price increases in CSDs recently which has made their value relatively less attractive."
Crowdfunding effort under way at canned Mela Watermelon Water brand is revealing some impressive growth metrics, with brand quadrupling revenues to $5.7 mil last year, its 2d year, and anticipating $17 mil this year. It's cracked 7,000 retail doors by now, including Target, Sprouts and Kroger, with Apr rollout into 6,500 7-Eleven locations across 5 states still in early stage after 100-store test. Early-bird phase of raise on WeFunder is near completion, with all but $97K of sought-for $3.42 mil in the till now.
FLASH! Keurig Dr Pepper Acquiring Kalil Bottling, Adding Ariz to Co's Self-Distribution Footprint
Deal had been rumored for so many years that announcement after market closed this afternoon had an air of inevitability about it: Keurig Dr Pepper is acquiring longtime bottler in Arizona, Kalil Bottling, in deal anticipated to close in coming weeks, meaning by fall. It follows streak of dozens of smaller deals that KDP has been embarked upon as it seeks to elevate its company-owned bottling system to more equal footing vs Coke's red system and Pepsi's blue system. Terms weren't disclosed.
The complete 2024 Beer Industry Update is here! Order your copy of this year's edition now to save $150 and be among the first to receive this year's full e-book and companion excel files, now available.
The gremlins got us. Late last yr, Claudia Schubert added coo of North America to her title at Diageo, becoming president and coo of North America. Not global coo, as INSIGHTS incorrectly wrote in yesterday's Express. Thanks to the astute readers who quickly pointed out our error and apologies for any confusion.
Goldman Sachs survey (representing ~40 beer distribs or >110K retail outlets/ ~22% of total US retail outlets that sell alcohol) reported alc and non-alc bev Memorial Day sales "were healthy and broadly met or exceeded expectations," reported Bonnie Herzog. Sales were up 1.7% with traffic increase of 1.1% over holiday wkend. Looking ahead, retailers expect bev category to grow 2.1% during summer, driven by a 1.4% lift in customer traffic. For holiday wkend, 47% of respondents said STZ sales "were up significantly" followed by High Noon (23%) and TAP (15%). Brands signaled out with strongest growth were Modelo Especial (81%), Pacifico (53%), Twisted Tea (39%) and Coors Banquet (32%).
Coors NA had been growing to start the year, but suddenly dropped 70% for 4 wks thru May 19, dragging it down 14% YTD. So Blue Moon NA suddenly became MC's lead non-alc brand at $3.4 mil from nearly 80K cases YTD. With incremental Blue Moon NA and Peroni 0.0's double-digit growth, MC non-alc portfolio still nearly doubled for the year thru May 19, and grew strong double-digits for 4 wks, even with the sudden falloff of Coors NA. But it's no longer gaining much share of NA segment, and slipped to a distant #5 player with 4 share for latest 4 wks in Circana MULC; well behind AB's 33 share, HUSA's 20 share, Athletic 19 share, and now behind Constellation's Corona Non-Alcoholic for latest 4 wks.
Twisted Tea sales slowdown in tracked off-prem data is driven by a few key brands in specific channels. Twisted Tea Original $$ were down 0.7% and Twisted Peach dipped 1% in Circana c-stores for latest 4 wks thru May 19. Other core brands like Half & Half, Party Pack and Raspberry were slowin' but still growin'. Meanwhile, in foodstores Twisted Tea Party Pk suddenly slipped nearly 3% for 4 wks. Yet individual flavors, Twisted Tea Original (+10%) and Half & Half (+28%) were still posting strong growth for 4 wks in foodstores. All told, Twisted Tea family was still up 10% by $$ for 4 wks in Circana MULC, including +7% in c-stores and +14% in foodstores. But seems that the incursion of new hard tea brands coupled with the laws of big numbers are starting to have greater impact Twisted trends this spring/summer.
As trends within turn drastically, domestic premium segment is declining and losing share of beer at similarly steep rates in recent periods vs Q1 (see May 29 issue). Down 7.5% by $$ and shed 1.6 share of beer for 4 wks thru May 19 in Circana multi-outlet + convenience. But new share dynamics within the segment are taking hold for top light lager brands in recent periods.

