Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Two leading cognac suppliers among top publicly traded wine & spirits cos reported continued softness globally in latest results, each citing softer cognac sales in particular. Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy (LVMH) wine & spirits global revs declined 9% to ~$6.4 bil USD vs yr ago, tho organic sales were down just 5% on constant consolidation scope and currency basis. Either way, that's an improvement compared to -11% reported in 2024 vs 2023. Operating profit trend improved too, but still down much sharper, -25% to $1.2 bil vs yr ago after a 36% drop in 2024. Wine & spirits slipped to just 6.6% of LVMH's total revs and 5.7% of oper profit in 2025.

Fever-Tree's revenue in the US grew 3% to $182 mil USD (£131.9 mil) in 2025 vs 2024 on constant currency basis, co reported in today's pre-close trading update. US remains Fever-Tree's largest mkt at over 35% of total revs. Trend slowed slightly in the 2d half amid the transition to MC distribution network, tho would already account for around 2% of MC's US revenue mix with full-yr sales included. MC distrib transition is "progressing to plan, and alongside an upweighted marketing investment, will provide a strong platform for 2026," co emphasized. Recall, Fever-Tree will have a natl mktg campaign in the US this yr and "the momentum behind the brand is especially encouraging, giving us confidence in the growing opportunity in our latest market as execution moves beyond the transition phase," ceo Tim Warrillow commented. All in, Fever-Tree brand sales grew 2% to more than $514 mil USD globally including US up 3%, UK down 2%, Europe up 2% and "ROW" (rest of world) up 17%.

FIFCO USA is frequently referred to as Genesee in a long piece in the Rochester Beacon (local non-profit online journal), suggesting perhaps there's still a much stronger connection to the local brand than the corporate name. Brewery is a big facility in which FIFCO USA invested about $150 mil in last 9 years, after it spent $388 mil to buy North American Breweries back in 2012, noted article. But FIFCO USA's own brands mostly declined and much of article focuses on "Genesee's contract business," almost to the point of promoting it. Article calls contract biz a "hedge" and "a practical one." Brewery has done contract production for "nearly 30 years now" and "roughly 25 percent of the Rochester brewery's business now comes from producing beverages for outside partners." While that mix shifts over time, it remains "consistently meaningful," FIFCO USA veep of growth and strategy Ellen Taberski told Beacon.

As convergence remains a driving force across alc bevs, count Arlington Capital Advisor's JB Shireman as one still anticipating larger non-alc players to get in the mix in a much bigger way, he shared at BBD's recent Summit in San Diego. JB expects "very, very large beverage players that are not really in alcohol in a meaningful way yet…will come into it and it will reshuffle the landscape of who's really big and…influential." He sees "one or two acquisitions or partnerships along that line" that "could really reshuffle the power structure at distribution and retail fairly quickly," and thinks that "will happen over the next few years."

A subtle vibe shift at the very start of the year grew into a rumbling that at the end of the month is an outright outcry. What the New Yorker headlined as a "Dry January Hangover," Business Insider suggested is a "Wet Winter." An opinion piece in Food Dive by a pollster at Curion went as far as to proclaim that "Dry January is dead." That's too strong. Even a sizable chunk of respondents to that co's surveys said they planned to participate in the month-long sobriety challenge. But for any number of reasons, the conversation shifted this year, leaning more heavily into long-term moderation over short stints of self-imposed prohibition.

Global beer EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) hit $37.4 bil in 2024, reported Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling and team in their recently released (Jan 21) Beer Profit Pool report. This analysis only comes out every 5 yrs and gives an illuminating overview of global beer. Bernstein estimates global beer volume at about 1.6 billion bbls with revs of $192.5 bil. Since last report (using 2019 data), "industry volumes have still not fully recovered from the twin pressures of COVID and high pricing to recover cost inflation." That's certainly true in US, which is down to ~11.5% of global beer volume, we estimate. But US still gets an outsized portion of global beer profits. Bernstein's estimate is that US beer EBIT at $10.3 bil. That represents 27% of global beer profits. US beer profits declined in 2024, estimates Bernstein, and were probably down again in 2025, tho #s not finalized. US profits dominated by ABI ($3.7 bil in 2024) and Constellation ($3.4 bil in beer EBIT in fiscal yr ending Feb 2025).

AB's top 4 brands — Mich Ultra, Bud Light, Busch Light and Budweiser — still drove over 2/3 of AB's $$ and volume sales in tracked off-prem channels last yr. So how those 4 brands net out has outsized importance to AB's overall performance. And last yr, the combo of Bud Light and Bud's declines still washed away Mich Ultra and Busch Light's collective growth. Bud Light/Bud together lost nearly $400 mil and 18 mil cases while Mich Ultra/Busch Light gained nearly $229 mil and 7 mil cases in Circana multi-outlet + convenience data last yr.

AB's annual SAMCOM distrib meeting felt palpably positive this yr coming off a series of significant wins in 2025 with plans to "stay aggressive" in what's expected to be a "pivotal year," as execs highlighted. Between AB's improved results in beer, rapid growth of spirits RTDs, significant investments and partnerships, and strong slate of ads and plans for 2026, virtually all distribs INSIGHTS spoke with were fired up about the year ahead coming outta the meeting. Whatever friction there's been across the distrib network got upstaged by strong content and good vibes.

We've entered a new era in alc bev distribution. Beer guys are selling more spirits (and wine), spirits guys are selling more beer, the big are getting bigger (as per usual) and the little guys are getting out. Smaller distribs selling to larger distribs, a consistent consolidation theme, now happening at an accelerated pace. Primarily in the AB system these days. In 2025, several startling distribution developments advanced one or more of these themes. Some big moves last year pointed towards a very different future, already pushing further in the new year. Beer distribution is getting more intertwined with wine and spirits. As biz models change, it raises new questions.

While not a player in US, Carlsberg's new move towards lower alcohol beers in its home mkt Denmark aimed at "a new moderate mindset" could be construed as a sign of the times. "As moderation becomes a defining force in how Danes enjoy beer, Carlsberg Denmark is launching a new platform of lower alcohol beers under the category name 'session.'" First product in portfolio called Carlsberg Nordlyst is a 2.5% ABV lager that debuted Jan 21. While it contains "half the alcohol of a classic pilsner," Nordlyst offers "a full-flavoured alternative for moments when consumers want to dial down the alcohol percentage."